By means of Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter
THE BANGKO SENTRAL ng Pilipinas (BSP) could cut rates by another 50 basis points (bps) this year, the governor said on Wednesday.
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. told reporters that the Monetary Council could implement two more rate cuts during its next two meetings, scheduled for October 17 and December 19.
“We have a policy meeting in October. And we have one in December too. So 25 fps, 25 fps. That is possible in principle,” he said on the sidelines of a forum at the Asian Development Bank.
The central bank started its easing cycle in August by cutting the target reverse repurchase (RRP) rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, from a 17-year high of 6.5%. This was the FThe BSP cut rates for the first time in almost four years.
Asked whether the Monetary Board could implement a 50bp rate cut in one meeting, Mr Remolona said there would be a risk of a “hard landing” in that scenario. Central banks normally come with interest rate cuts of 25 basis points, he added.
“In normal times that’s what central banks do: 25 bp, 25 bp, 25 bp.”
If the Monetary Board implements rate cuts of 50 basis points later this year, this would bring the benchmark interest rate to 5.75% at the end of 2024.
Mr Remolona said the central bank will continue to monitor the latest macroeconomic data and indicators.
“We have to look at the numbers. It’s not the last number that decides. The last issue we get, the September issue to be released next week, will provide input into our projections.”
“We are therefore concerned with the projection for a year from now, because the effect of monetary policy is slow. That is the relevant number,” he added.
Mr Remolona also said inflation could be lower in September than in August.
Overall inflation fell from 4.4% in July to 3.3% in August. September inFThe data will be released on October 4.
The BSP expects it all year roundFsettlement at 3.4%.
CAPITAL MARKETS
Meanwhile, the BSP chief said they are working on initiatives to further deepen capital markets.
“When it comes to price stability, deeper capital markets strengthen our transmission mechanism,” Mr Remolona said.
These also support the central bank’s financial stability mandate, he added.
“If the banking system gets into trouble, we want investments to have access to another source of money, and that would be the corporate bond market, the stock market.”
The BSP and the Bankers Association of the Philippines (BAP) are working to improve short-term benchmarks to further develop capital markets.
They are expected to announce the latest improvements to short-term benchmarks through peso (PHP) interest rate swaps and government bond repurchase agreements on September 30.
Mr Remolona previously said he planned to revive the swap market. A swap is a derivative contract in which one party exchanges the values or cash flows of one asset for another.
Swaps are traded over-the-counter, versus options and futures traded on a public exchange.
Interest rate, equity, credit default and currency swaps are the most important most common types of swaps.