In recent seasons, the Manchester Derby has been a lopsided affair. Manchester City have been vying for whatever silverware they can get their hands on, while Manchester United have found themselves in the relative wilderness, looking for a chance to face their rowdy neighbors as a chance to course-correct. It has led to Manchester City winning four of the last five meetings in all competitions, while securing four consecutive Premier League titles. But this isn’t the case this season.
United still have a lot of work to do on the pitch, but the arrival of Ruben Amorim has brought a breath of fresh air into the squad and could see them get back to their best. Meanwhile, City are in their worst ever form under Pep Guardiola, with just one win in their last ten games. It’s too early to say the dynasty is coming to an end, but it’s the first time in years they feel like they’re in the same league as their city rivals.
But this is what makes the rivalry so great because with a win the Red Devils can deal a critical blow to City. This loss would mean more than the average loss. Without Rodri, City’s defense has dropped from one of the best in the league, scoring less than one goal per game to well in mid-table. And they haven’t compensated by scoring more goals, leaving City in a difficult position as they look to break this spiral of doom.
United’s defense against open play has improved under Amorim, going from 1.67 xG per game to 1.29 xG per game, as a shift to a back three suited them well. It has also brought out the best in Amad Diallo, who has created excellent chances during the move to a wing-back role under Amorim. This will be one of United’s biggest tests, but they learned a lot from facing Arsenal and losing 2-0, which could translate into a showdown with City.
They won’t get lost at the moment, but given City’s fragile state, if they fall behind early there may not be enough fight to come back. It used to feel inevitable that if City were behind in a game they would take the lead, but drawing Crystal Palace disrupted that and Guardiola must find a way to pick up the pieces again.
He might regret extending his contract for another season, as even the most successful dynasties don’t last forever. If City don’t win this match, it also becomes fair to wonder when their next win will be. In their remaining matches of the year they face Aston Villa, Everton and Leicester City. While Leicester and Everton are at the bottom of the table, City are struggling against these types of teams.
Rico Lewis will also miss the match against United due to a red card suspension, while the goalkeeping situation is also uncertain now that Ederson has not started the last two Premier League matches. It’s a flurry of things happening at the Etihad, making it harder to identify the source of where it all went wrong. This is far too much to attribute solely to Rodri’s absence. That’s why this is starting to feel like the end of the Guardiola era, even if he remains on the sidelines for a while longer.
A loss to United will only make those whispers louder, and that’s where United can deal their rivals quite a critical blow before they can also give themselves confidence before they face Tottenham in the EFL Cup in midweek. That’s Amorim’s best route to success and also a great way to show the power is shifting back to the red side of Manchester.
How to watch and odds
- Date: Sunday December 15 | Time: 11:30 am ET
- Location: Etihad Stadium – Manchester, England
- TV: USA | Live stream: Fubo TV (Try for free)
- Chances: Manchester City-165; Sign +340; Manchester United +380