BIRMINGHAM, England — Pep Guardiola has never been in a situation like this before. You can see that. In his 16 years at the highest level, Guardiola has won more trophies than he can count, propelled great talent to peaks even they could not imagine and set the template for modern coaching. And, as the man at the bar or in the comments section won’t fail to tell you, he’s done it all at the helm of some of the richest clubs in the world, where he doesn’t want for anything.
No wonder he has never found himself in these circumstances, a points return since early November putting City neck and neck with Southampton. Villa Park was buzzing with anticipation before kick-off. Perhaps the home fans will take credence from the thrilling victory in the same match last year, but Villa have not been a team at that level in recent weeks. Even more striking is that City haven’t even reached the level of one of their worst performances from last season.
That belief would only have grown when Villa saw City XI. A team that failed to pry open Manchester United last weekend had Kevin De Bruyne dropped. Combined with an opponent who loves nothing more than forcing direct transition moves against the opposition’s high lines, City had robbed themselves of Kyle Walker’s recovery pace. Also no Ruben Dias, who sustained a muscle injury during the holidays, and no Ederson either.
So Guardiola’s hands were somewhat tied, albeit to an extent that most managers would expect at this stage of the season. Still, it’s fair to say he made the situation worse. By leaving both Savinho and Jeremy Doku on the bench, Guardiola gave himself a frontline whose first inclination was to move infield, facing the much bigger, stronger and more mobile Bordeaux and Blueshirts who formed the heart of the pitch formed. The introduction of Savinho before the close certainly gave City something different, an immediate lead beyond that forced space, enough for Phil Foden to scramble through for his first Premier League goal of the season, too late to do anything but a foolish hope of a 2-1 to bid. defeat that could have been much worse.
In the heart of the scrum, Ilkay Gundogan and Mateo Kovacic had nothing to escape the attention of Youri Tielemans, let alone Amadaou Onana and Boubacar Kamara. They couldn’t even patrol the spaces in front of the back line. John Stones felt he had no choice but to fly into midfield when a simple pass from Emiliano Martinez gave Tielemans space to advance. One more through ball and what was left of the City line was out of play. Morgan Rogers pushed the ball over Stefan Ortega for Jhon Duran to open the scoring.
Guardiola would tell you that this is less because of what City did wrong than what Villa did right. He acknowledged that Stones had been too late to reach Tielemans, but praised the precision with which they crossed the City line from then on.
“They are so strong in the middle block,” Guardiola added. “We had good moments, we had chances, more chances than in the [Manchester] United game, but in the second half we failed and our pressure was not good enough.
“We struggled a bit and couldn’t get them down properly. In the end we found a goal, but too late. We’re struggling to score and we’re conceding goals.”
A lot of teams seem to be getting a lot right against City at the moment. If bullying continues over one issue, the coach needs to make adjustments. That opener was perhaps only the third or fourth of dozens of plus moments, starting in the 16th second, when City’s high line had been demolished by Villa. Of course, adjusting to life without Rodri is easier said than done, whose Ballon d’Or in absentia case is already becoming increasingly compelling.
A Mateo Kovacic who is clearly not fully fit will not be a good replacement, nor will whatever Ilkay Gundogan has left in the tank. Romeo Lavia may have been, but the best of City’s very impressive academy are now ripping out trees elsewhere, none more so than Rogers, whose dynamism and composure in the final third would contribute greatly to this team. It would be one thing if the fruits of the academy sale led to deepening a squad cleaved to the bare bones, because that’s the way Guardiola liked it, at least until this week when he admitted he might needs 25 players to manage multiple players. competitions. It would have been helpful if someone at City had come to that conclusion in the summer of 2023.
Either way, there are other ways to shore up your high line than having Rodri or immediately signing a replacement. Kyle Walker may have struggled, but he is supposed to be City’s last line, the one whose burst should get his teammates out of trouble when their press is broken. He didn’t offer much in the second half, replacing John Stones after his foot problem flared up again, suggesting this match might have been different had he started. Yet a defender with a real recovery pace was something Guardiola deprived himself of in a match where his backline clearly needed it.
Guardiola himself was unimpressed with the second half and made vague allusions to the changes made to accommodate ‘our captain’ Walker. Here too you can ask questions to the manager. John McGinn enjoyed 45 minutes of bullying Josko Gvardiol. He seemed to get even more joy against the reversing Rico Lewis. Couldn’t Walker have moved to centre-back, where he has played quite a bit of late, to avoid further exacerbating a problem that was already apparent?
Even at the height of his powers, Guardiola has never been above making adjustments that have hampered his team. What did he try today? The logical answer would be to introduce Lewis and Jack Grealish before Walker and Doku because you want control. City certainly had a lot of possession in the first half, but no one would take this as dominance. Within twenty minutes their attacking plans had switched to long balls wide to Grealish in the hope that he would recapture some of that old Villa Park magic, beat three boys and score a wonder goal.
Guardiola’s City has had many looks: the team of flying wingers and cuts, stable possession that forced mistakes, now a side that had all kinds of options to channel the ball to the pure scoring great of Erling Haaland. Rarely have they allowed themselves to be so dependent on the fate of one winger, no matter how much his manager expressed his impression of being impressed by Grealish and the wider first-half performance.
As for Haaland, he wasn’t at all enamored with his own display. “I didn’t do things well enough,” said City’s number 9 after another match where his shot was off and you’ll miss it. “I didn’t score my chances. I have to do better, I wasn’t good enough.”
Haaland is wrong, as Guardiola himself pointed out. He didn’t score his chances because he didn’t get them. One header in the 90th minute was all that came his way. Despite all the problems that come from not having Rodri and the loss of Kevin De Bruyne, City still have the best pure striker in the game. The ball doesn’t come to him. A player who routinely averages four shots per 90 minutes hasn’t even hit half of them this month.
When asked why Stones had to stop at half-time – a recurrence of the foot injury he has suffered of late – Guardiola was at pains to say he is trying to simplify it. “I would say that I am not at the right time to make tactical and creative changes.” Take his word for it, but the solutions he deployed at Villa Park have made things easier for Villa, not City.
Things will probably end well for Guardiola, not least because, for all the glee in the chants of ‘you’ll be fired tomorrow morning’, he will be given the time that few if any managers get to crunch the numbers and sort out new options. But make no mistake: if a manager without such a rich history were in Guardiola’s position, he would know he couldn’t get away with much more of the mess City caused this afternoon.