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Trade War Fears – Econlib

by trpliquidation
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Trade War Fears

One of my favorite movies of all time is the 1982 Cyberpunknoir classic Blade Runner. Not only did the film make the Cyberpunk genre on its own, but it inspired an important change in the SCI-Fi genre as a whole, led to classics such as such as AkiraAnd inspired great directors such as Guillermo del Toro, Christopher Nolan and Denis Villeneuve. The themes of humanity, hyper technology, hyperkapitalism, femininity and ecology continue to debate fiercely to this day. Not bad for a film considered a flop at the first release.

Politics and economically dominant Tyrell Corporation is set in the distant future of Los Angeles 2019 and has created synthetic people who are known as replicants to do dangerous jobs in space. For obvious reasons, some of these replicants are not happy with this scheme and rogue. Blade runners are the ones sent to detect these rogue replicators. The film follows such a Blade -Hharlloper, Rick Deckard (played by Harrison Ford), while chasing four particularly dangerous replicants.

I have seen the film about a billion times. One of the fun things about watching films that you can practically quote by heart is that you can observe the background. Brainpower can be derived from the plot to observe the setting and how it reflects the mindset of the author/filmmaker/society. In my most recent Herwatch, something about the setting jumped to me. The team that built the setting set up the 2019 Los Angeles so heavily Japanese. Japanese food dominates the culture. The Japanese language is written on plates. Japanese companies dominate the skyline. Even the Tyrell Corporation was originally presented as a Japanese conglomerate in early designs of the film.

Why Japan? Simple: Japan was an increasing economic influence and an alleged threat to US economic power in the 1980s. For example, the economist Lester Thurow wrote various books in the 80s and 90s about how the Japanese style of state -driven economic management was destined to catch up with America and make the economic powerhouse of the world. American companies were afraid of Japanese competition. Peter Drucker praised the Japanese management style and pressed to be established in America. Japan was an existential threat to the American economic power, so much that there were strong lobbies for the congress to impose rates and quotas on Japanese import, so that Blade Runner’s dystopia is created.

Of course these fears were exaggerated. Even when Thurow was writing his books, the Japanese economy stagnated. The 1990s and 2000s were characterized by economic stagnation in Japan, while US economic growth exploded. In the period of 30 years from 1994 to 2004, Japanese real GDP only rose 24.9% (source) While the American real GDP rose 115.1% in the same period (source). In the same period, Japanese industrial production (excluding construction) was on average only 0.1% growth (source) While American industrial production was on average 1.2% (source). The widely feared economic dominance of Japan has never been created.

Since about 2010, the same fears have been created with China. However, the above story does not change. Just replace “China” by “Japan” and “Peter Navarro” by “Lester Thurow.” It is the same claims of the upcoming economic dominance by the state -run conglomerates and the superiority of industrial policy. America must be scaredShould capitulate for these so -called superior foreign powers, must take their systems, otherwise we will be flooded. And just like with Japan, these fears are outdated even if they are made. The Chinese economy is stagnating. They waste resources left and right, something that is untenable. Apart from substantial reforms of the market, China will end up on the axis of economic history, just like Japan. All those fears will soon be lost as tears in the rain.

Fiction offers us useful insights into the past. And one of the big lessons is this: the more things change, the more they remain the same. The hand simply rearranges the players in the game.

PS It is also interesting for me how sticky culture can be. Although the fears for Japanese dominance are blurred, Cyberpunk -Media Japan still portrays as a dominant influence in their worlds. For example in the video game Cyberpunk 2077In the distant future of 2077, Japanese culture is dominant in the fictional city in California City of Night City. Ridley Scott’s random choice in the 1980s still appeared in 2025.

PPS I gave Midjourney a picture of me and said it had to place me in a cyber punk setting. Here is my favorite result:

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