Table of Contents
The Army-Navy game occupies a special, but special, position on the college football calendar.
Its significance is undeniable, given the history, ferocity and pageantry of the rivalry. It stands alone – literally – as the only game on the Saturday following the conference championship weekend in December. But the stakes of the game usually don’t matter when it comes to the rankings or the race for the national championship.
This year it’s complicated.
The service academies are both undefeated and ranked. And the 12-team College Football Playoff means the No. 23 Black Knights (7-0) and No. 24 Midshipmen (6-0) are bona fide Playoff contenders — if either of them can win the American Athletic Conference.
But the Playoff field will take place on December 8 – six days before the annual Army-Navy game kicks off in Landover, Maryland. And because Army and Navy are now conference mates in the AAC, the Dec. 14 matchup could be the best. second meeting between the teams in one season.
Here’s a look at how things could shake out.
How did we get here?
Army QB Bryson Daily leads all FBS players with 19 rushing touchdowns. (Lucas Boland / Imagn images)
It is the first time since 1926 that both Army and Navy have started a season 6-0.
The Black Knights are 7-0 and haven’t dropped a game yet. Naturally, they lead the nation in rushing offense, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, who was responsible for 26 total touchdowns. Army is already 6-0 in AAC play, which means only two conference games remain (at North Texas, UTSA).
The Midshipmen are 6-0 heading into a huge matchup against No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, and 4-0 in the AAC. It is already their best season since 2019, when they won eleven games.
Army and Navy currently occupy the top two spots in the AAC standings.
So…does this mean they can play twice?
Yes – and in consecutive weeks. They could face each other in the conference championship game on Dec. 6 and meet again for their annual rivalry on Dec. 14.
But Tulane is right behind them with a 3-0 record in the conference and will play Navy on Nov. 16. A loss could derail Navy’s chance to punch its ticket to the conference championship and crush the Mids’ Playoff hopes.
A possible meeting in the AAC Championship would. But the annual neutral-site game won’t do that.
Selection day for the Playoff is Sunday, December 8, and the annual Army-Navy match is the following Saturday. In the four-team Playoff era, the selection committee had a protocol that allowed it to wait on Army-Navy if it had on-field consequences. But because the twelve-team Playoff starts on the weekend of December 20-21, the outcome could not wait this time.
This means there is a scenario where one service academy wins the AAC and a spot in the CFP, then loses its final regular season game to the same opponent it defeated to advance to the Playoff.
Of course, there will still be bragging rights about the line.
With no other teams playing a game the week of December 14, either service academies, if they earn a spot in the Playoff, would have less time to prepare for their postseason opponent.
There is a 29.6 percent chance that Army or Navy will make the Playoff, but the individual percentages for both teams depending on the results of their next games will look slightly different.
If Navy beats Notre Dame on Saturday, the Midshipmen’s chances of making the Playoff increase to 10 percent, according to the projection model from The Athletics‘s Austin Mock. In the event of a loss, this drops to 5 percent.
The Army faces an easier opponent in the Air Force, so the cadets’ percentages are higher: 30 percent for a win and 14 percent for a loss. Army is also scheduled to play Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium on Nov. 23.
Mock’s model gives the Army a 63 percent chance of winning the AAC, while the Navy has a 15 percent chance.
GO DEEPER
What do Army and Navy’s historic starts mean for the AAC Championship? CFP?
What else needs to happen for both teams to make the Playoff?
Two things need to happen. First, the obvious is that either the Army or Navy should keep winning and win the AAC. It’s unlikely either of them can make the Playoff as a major team.
Second, they probably need the Mountain West to beat each other up. Boise State (5-1) is currently ranked higher than Army and Navy, and the Broncos’ only blemish is a road loss at Oregon.
The other Mountain West team we have to worry about is UNLV (6-1). Boise State plays at UNLV on Friday, which will have a significant impact on its Group of 5 Playoff bid.
If you want a guide to getting the Army or Navy into the CFP, I would probably argue for UNLV to clear the upset this weekend and then continue to argue for those two teams to lose the battle. — Austin Mock
Led by 1946 Heisman Trophy winner Glenn Davis, the Army claimed national titles in 1944, 1945 and 1946. (Bettmann via Getty Images)
Yes, but the details are a bit complicated because college football hasn’t always hosted a national championship game.
Army claims five national championships (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), although multiple programs claim titles for four of those years. Likewise, the Navy claims a share of the 1926 national title.
The last time either team reached the AP top 10 was in 1964, when Navy peaked at No. 6.
What’s next?
Army ends the regular season at Air Force (1-6), North Texas (5-2), Notre Dame (6-1), UTSA (3-4) and Navy.
Navy finishes with Notre Dame, Rice (2-5), South Florida (3-4), Tulane (5-2), East Carolina (3-4) and Army.
(Top photo: Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images)