While leaders Liverpool have drawn in the Premier League, Arsenal have failed to capitalize on this and have also dropped points in the last two games. Despite Everton dominating in every respect on Saturday, the match ended 0-0. Arsenal put five shots on target for an xG of 1.42, while Everton took two shots and put none on net for an xG of 0.17.
Extending that to their last two games, the Gunners have allowed four shots for 0.33 xG while generating 25 shots for 3.45 xG. That’s a number that will generally average out over the course of a season, which is why Mikel Arteta and the Gunners have nothing to worry about. The problem is that everything comes from the average is also the reason why Arsenal fell two points short of the title last season and despite being an excellent team still fell short of winning the title.
It’s a struggle to win the title and Arsenal are the only team in the top five without a double-figure goalscorer in Premier League play. Even Nottingham Forest know they can look to Chris Wood for goals, while Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer need no introduction. The Gunners can compensate for some of this through set play dominance, with Gabriel being the highest scoring defender in the Premier League with three goals, closely followed by William Saliba with another two.
When a team underperforms against their xG, questions arise about their key attackers, but Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka do what is expected of them. In fact, Arsenal’s team xG of 28 is exactly the same as their goals scored, but the attack needs an extra outfit to turn these draws into wins. Martin Odegaard’s creativity is part of that, but so is having a real talisman to make something from nothing. Despite looking solid against AS Monaco in midweek, Gabriel Jesus still hasn’t found his best form.
Saka can score great goals, but he is also responsible for the creative threads in attack, as evidenced by his ten assists in the league this season. But after a summer in which Arsenal opted not to pursue a top striker, these ties become a little more painful. It would be too simplistic to say that with Viktor Gyokeres Arsenal would be leading the league instead of Liverpool, but after coming within single digits of the title over the past two seasons, it’s time to make a to go one step further and go on a big attack.
The defense and midfield are ready, but with the winter transfer window opening soon, Arsenal need to explore their attacking options or this could be another season where they fall just short. Saka has already announced that this is the year they get over the hump and win the competition but he needs help to get there.