Home Sports Bold Champions League predictions: Christian Pulisic shines again, Barcelona claims battle, more

Bold Champions League predictions: Christian Pulisic shines again, Barcelona claims battle, more

by trpliquidation
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Bold Champions League predictions: Christian Pulisic shines again, Barcelona claims battle, more

The third round of the Champions League phase is just around the corner. We have all the action listed for you Biggest+, CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network all season. Here’s what we’ll be looking for in three big games on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Milan vs. Club Brugge: Pulisic leads the way again

For the first time in his European club career, Christian Pulisic is playing the role he seemed destined for when he burst onto the scene almost nine years ago. He is the key striker in a team with serious ambitions for domestic competitions and perhaps even a Champions League run. It’s worth saying that this in itself is perhaps something that no other American footballer has achieved. Even the best of the best before Pulisic were either mid-tier stars (think Clint Dempsey) or the useful teammates that so many USMNT internationals currently are. In fact, that was Pulisic’s role at Chelsea and, as good as his performances were, in his first year at Milan. Undoubtedly a useful player, but not someone for whom space was always found.

This season that seems to have changed. Pulisic has more outfield minutes in Serie A than any other Milan player, by quite a large margin. He has 640 of a possible 720 to his name. In second place, Tijjani Reijnders has 553. That’s almost a full match that the American international plays more than anyone else in red and black. Some of that may have to do with availability, which was a challenge for him before this season, but Pulisic has used his time extremely well.

Six goals and three assists is a heady return so far; unlike last season there are enough signs to convince us that this will continue to be the case. If the 2023-2024 Pulisic continued this year, it is entirely possible that his production would have slowed. Instead, Captain America does a lot more to ensure his returns remain high. His expected goals without penalties (npxG) per 90 has increased from 0.28 to 0.36, an increase that is all the more impressive considering he is actually shooting less often. Less effort from distance or with his head, still the same poaching skills prized by Thomas Tuchel and Stefano Pioli.

Christian Pulisic’s performance in 2024-2025 compared to other left wingers in Serie A. xPVAdded = Expected Possession Value Added, a measure that assesses how much value a player’s ball activity adds to his team.

TruMedia

However, the greatest progress has been made in creation. Pulisic has long looked more of a carry than a passer, but that could change this season. His take-ons are down, his passing is up (particularly in the final third), his expected assists (xA) and chances created are skyrocketing. His 20 from the latter indeed leads Serie A, his xA is only slightly behind Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. A goalscorer, creator and consummate team player – the latter was a point Fonseca was keen to make after Pulisic provided the assist in Saturday’s 1-0 win over Udinese.

That match was just as illustrative of how far Pulisic has come. Whether it is to reserve players for a crucial meeting with Club Brugge or to freshen up his squad, Fonseca announced the substitutions on Saturday. While Rafael Leao and Tammy Abraham made way, Pulisic was retained, thrust into the heart of the action as the slightly more withdrawn second striker to Alvaro Morata. There are options upon options to build Milan’s front four. Pulisic is the orange cream crunch in a Quality Street can (ship them to the States if you don’t know what I mean). He’s the filling on your Thanksgiving spread. You take him first. And Fonseca will certainly do that as he tries to put some points on the board in the third round of the Champions League.

Manchester City vs. Sparta Prague: Tough for Haaland

The last gasp winners to suppress the likes of Wolves and Fulham, a haphazardly constructed squad that looks light in some of the most crucial areas and a giant off-field saga to distract them: like a different club to Manchester City were to find themselves in Manchester City’s situation, it would really seem time to ask some tough questions about whether these title race results will hold up. Perhaps because it is Pep Guardiola, City deserves the benefit of the doubt. If anyone can reorient a side with little in the way of players to create real chances for Erling Haaland, it’s the best coach in the game.

However, don’t expect even what seems like a simple European evening on paper to be the waltz that it was. After all, City have routinely made things more difficult for themselves. Even their most comprehensive win of the season so far, 4-0 over Slovan Bratislava, hardly set the world on fire. Celtic won by that margin!

The best versions of City are not throwing the kitchen sink at ten-man Arsenal, let alone the mid-table sides they have come past in recent weeks. By the 90th minute of a Wolves match in which they had not led once, City had created 1.3 xG. Against Newcastle 0.91 in a match they were up by one goal for about 20 minutes. We could delve deeper into the quality of the chances they passed up to Fulham, but somewhat shaky defense is not that rare for City at this stage of the season. An attack that only really comes into action when Jack Grealish comes off the bench? That’s new.

Erling Haaland’s heatmaps for the first eight matches of the 2022-2023 Premier League season and the 2024-25 season

TruMedia

To get a sense of the escalating struggle at City, you only have to look at the relative travails of Erling Haaland. He is shotless against Wolves and sees less ball per 90 Premier League minutes than at any stage of his career. His ball touches of 22.16 are almost 20 percent less than in his first year in England. His non-penalty xG is also on the downslope and the trajectory is not entirely encouraging: 0.45 against Newcastle, 0.25 against Fulham and zero against Wolves.

His shot numbers are still around four per 90, but if Kevin De Bruyne isn’t back for too long, that could be the next one to fall off. With the Belgian on the pitch, Haaland has eight goals on 3.9 xG. In comparable minutes without him, one goal of 1.8 xG. City have become a team tailor-made for Haaland’s otherworldly skills and the opposition know it. Without De Bruyne, they can really just continue limiting the big man’s supply and challenge Jeremy Doku and Savinho to beat them (remember Phil Foden, by the way?).

Expect the same from Sparta Praha on Wednesday. It probably won’t be enough to score a point, no matter how impressive Lars Friis’ side have been this season. It may not even be enough to keep them from losing by a reasonable margin. But if the Czech champions can hold firm and slow down City’s attack, it will only add to the feeling that Guardiola’s men are still a long way off this season.

Barcelona vs. Bayern Munich: Catalans prove they are the real deal

Wednesday brings us one of the first Class A hypergames of the league phase and it’s packed with more than its fair share of off-field stories and on-field talent. The visit of Bayern Munich should be memorable, especially for Barcelona. There is no better opponent to allow them to show that they are not really back.

The victory over Bayern in the 2015 semi-final could well be the apotheosis of post-Guardiola Barcelona, ​​​​a team that had built up financial strength through the win and used it to form an excellent team, with the leader the devastating trident Luis. Suarez, Neymar and Lionel Messi. By the time these two met again, things went downhill pretty quickly. Neymar’s bounty had been thrown away and a team assembled with little rhyme or reason was pulverized by the Bayern of Hansi Flick, now the man charged with returning Barcelona to the top.

To prove this was no fluke, Bayern defeated Barcelona in the group stage two years later. When they did it again in 2022-2023 it just felt a bit mean. The response to this series of setbacks in Catalonia – selling a long-term stake in a host of revenue streams – does not seem particularly effective in light of CAS’s recent ruling, but one thing seems quite certain.

Barcelona is being remade. In Europe’s top five leagues, no team scores more, no team accumulates points faster and no team has a better overall xG differential. Raphinha has a compelling case to be the continent’s best creator at the moment, Robert Lewandowski is the best domestic scorer and the young supporting cast around the veterans, many of whom are homegrown, shows a calmness beyond his years go. They will face their toughest test yet in Bayern, but the team that previously conceded three strikingly similar goals against Eintracht Frankfurt has not yet completely kicked its addiction to the inexplicable. This seems to be a day for a revived Barcelona.

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