Bold Predictions in the Champions League: Florian Wirtz blows Milan away, Arsenal’s set pieces fail, and more

Week two of the Champions League is already around the corner, the competition phase offers a whole series of intriguing matches, including Bayer Leverkusen’s match against Milan, Paris Saint-Germain’s journey to Arsenal and a repeat of the 1982 European Cup final when Aston Villa hosted Bayern Munich. This is what we pay attention to:

How to watch

Biggest+ will have every minute of Champions League action for Matchday 2, while CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network will provide additional coverage. The UEFA Champions League Today pre- and post-match shows will be broadcast on both Biggest+ And CBS Sports Networkwhile Biggest+ will be home to The Golazo Show and every match on matchday 2. CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network will each have select games, while CBS Sports Golazo Network will wrap up the daily action with new episodes of Scoreline and the Champions Club.

Wirtz tears through Milan

If Bayern Munich’s encouraging defensive signals early in the season are to be believed, this could only be based on how effectively they have locked down Florian Wirtz. With Joshua Kimmich at his most industrious and two or three bodies to help him, the Bavarians were able to hold Bayer Leverkusen’s star man to just three successful attacking duels from 13, one touch in the penalty area and no shots.

Even then they couldn’t quite stop Wirtz, who finished with the assist that kept the defending champions in touch with the breakaway at the top of the Bundesliga. It may not have been the most elegant pass the 21-year-old has played – and boy, he plays a lot of them that are easy on the eye – but even this micro-assist for Robert Andrich spoke to Wirtz’s remarkable qualities. one touch to his chest was enough to position an awkwardly bouncing ball so that he could immediately roll it sideways so his teammate could get a shot in before Bayern’s defense could get out. Another match, another direct contribution to the scoresheet. That is quite typical of Wirtz this season.

Wirtz has contributed seven goals through eight appearances in all competitions. Particularly for a player who has long been regarded as one of Europe’s best providers, six of those were goals. That may be early in the season, but given the explosive start the Leverkusen face made in his Champions League debut (two goals in his first 36 minutes) you might think this could be Wirtz’s supernova season. This could well be the kind where the word young is no longer used next to the descriptions of great talent: Germany’s best playmaker, Europe’s best attacking talent.

The reason you can make that statement with such confidence is that Wirtz’s good form in front of goal goes back a lot further than his scoring streak so far this season. In the two and a half seasons leading up to the start of 2024, the youngster averaged around 1.6 shots per 90 Bundesliga minutes, a number that mainly dropped as he worked his way back from a serious cruciate ligament injury. Since the beginning of 2024, that number has skyrocketed to just over three. Victor Boniface’s long absence required someone to step up in Leverkusen colours. Wirtz did just that, scoring many of the big goals in the battle towards the end of an unbeaten domestic campaign.

Naturally, Boniface’s return means shot production has declined, but only fractionally, while creative numbers have held up at Wirtz’s usually remarkable levels all the way. Given that his post-shot xG is so much higher than his pre-shot xG and his target return is even higher than both, it’s fair to wonder if some regression is necessary. There’s also something odd about a shot profile that appears to be either high-quality close-range chances or hopeful attempts from distance. However, when a player of this quality gets into shape, he can run and run and run. Milan might regret facing Wirtz at this point.

Arsenal’s set-piece danger has been averted

Another week of action in the Premier League, another goal from a corner taking Arsenal to a big result. Their 13 dead-ball shots against Leicester City on Saturday – a number not including Leandro Trossard’s own goal that forced Wilfried Ndidi from a Bukayo Saka corner in the 95th minute – were the most they have achieved in a league match. since the appointment of coach Nicolas Jover in the summer of 2021. In that time, only two teams, Brentford and Newcastle, have improved that tally in a single match.

Since the start of last season, the Gunners have been at or near the top of the English top flight on virtually every dead ball metric. They score more, create more xG, give fewer chances to their opponents (their expected assists from set pieces are particularly notable) and hit their targets with remarkable accuracy. When they pack their box full of behemoths, it’s often a matter of when, not if, they find the net.

Strangely enough, that hasn’t translated at all to the Champions League, where 11 games in the competition have yet to produce a consistent goal for the Gunners. Shots and xG are also down, from four and 0.4 in the Premier League last season to 2.5 and 0.2 in their continental matches. Part of that decline in output is due to lower inputs. Arsenal certainly didn’t take as ostentatious a number of corners on their travels, but even that was offset by a few more free-kicks from the kind of positions where Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice and Saka can ask questions of defenders.

Arsenal’s problems with dead balls in Europe appear to be more about volume or even execution than discipline. In last season’s Champions League, the Gunners led the way both in terms of the number of fouls committed in the opponent’s penalty area (15) and the average per match (1.5). Only three attackers – Kylian Mbappe, Victor Osimhen and Jude Bellingham – gave away more free-kicks in that part of the pitch than central defender Gabriel. Jover’s array of picks, screens and blockers are having a devastating effect in the Premier League. When it really works, as with their second goal against Manchester City eight days ago, it drives opponents to apoplexy. Gabriel Martinelli holds out for Ederson and the goalkeeper both complains about a red shirt blocking his route, knowing he will simply be told he should have attacked the cross more often. In English football you can always want more.

The same rules don’t quite apply when the continent’s best officials take charge. Take this example when Arsenal chased an equalizer against Bayern Munich in last season’s quarter-finals. Gabriel drifts back from an offside position and finds himself in what starts as a tight hug with Eric Dier and ends as a six-man ruck. Many a Premier League referee would regard this as six of one, half a dozen of the other. Instead, Arsenal lose an excellent opportunity in the final minutes of an important match.

The same had happened against Porto in the previous round. Lead criminal Ben White clashes with Pepe, the Goya of the ‘dark arts’ and what appears to be a fairly simple bump between the two ends with… well, I’ve never used the spotlight feature while making images , but this seems appropriate.

Paris Saint-Germain may not have someone who sells contact into the back row like Pepe did, but given their relative lack of muscle they will be well aware that the best way to stop Arsenal’s threat from corners and free-kicks is to turn. those bodies in their own free kicks. In due time, a coach of Jover’s quality will likely figure out a way to stay within the continental interpretation of the rules and get opportunities for his big boys. So far, though, he doesn’t seem quite there yet.

Villa invites Bayern pressure

Here’s a quick conditional to wrap up this week’s predictions. It’s at least a logical scenario. Suppose Aston Villa, spurred on by home support, all the more exuberant given the memories of the 1982 European Cup final, burst out of the blocks in their first meeting with Bayern Munich since that unforgettable evening in Rotterdam. Suppose one of Ollie Watkins or Morgan Rogers, the latter in the form of his early career, gets the evening going with a bang, an early goal. What happens then?

Logic would suggest that Villa should press on and push for at least the second. Why not even a third? There would certainly be nothing riskier than staying ahead against the likes of Jamal Musiala, Michael Olise and, fitness permitting, Harry Kane. And yet there is something that Unai Emery teams do. Too often, their only goals are not building blocks but shaky foundations, with his side determined to cling to precarious advantages.

On Sunday at Ipswich Town, Rogers and Watkins turned an early deficit into a 2-1 lead inside 32 minutes. In the forty minutes that followed, Villa scored zero shots. No. Against a team that before this weekend conceded fourteen per game. Liam Delap struck again for Ipswich and Villa discovered that letting half a game pass them by was not an optimal plan to take three points.

This would be fine if it was a fluke. It’s not. This season Villa, who have been quite effective in exciting comebacks, have proven a little too willing to gamble on their defense in the latter stages of a win over Everton and a 2-1 victory over Leicester, where half of their ten shots came. heading into Amadou Onana’s opener in the 28th minute. Last season, two goals against Chelsea after 42 minutes, they registered just one shot before Conor Gallagher equalized in the 81st minute. If you dig further back into Emery’s CV, you come across the horrifying spectacle of watching Shkodran Mustafi anchor Arsenal’s defense with a two-goal lead. It rarely ended well. This could be life under Emery after all. It doesn’t have to be this way. It is true.