Champions League Bold -Forecasts: Liverpool will trust Alisson to save them, Pedri seems to be for Barcelona

It is the elimination week in the Champions League, 16 that turn eight as the quarter finals. Last week a high drama brought in Paris, a decisive result in Munich and a performance of defensive nous from Barcelona in Lisbon. It is those games and their second legs that we are looking forward to this week. As always, you can take over coverage of all action Paramount+” CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network.

1. Liverpool vs. PSG: Alisson delivers again

The performance of Alisson in the 1-0 first stage of Liverpool with At the Parc des Princes is one of the best individual shot stop performance that the Champions League has ever seen. Don’t be surprised if he goes close to that high watermark on Tuesday evening.

It is not only that the attacking Juggernaut from Luis Enrique will create problems for Liverpool, because they would do every side in the world on the current form. It should not surprise you that Alisson has delivered one of the best keepers of recent years, because Alisson is one of the best keepers of recent years.

Since the start of the Champions League season 2019-2020 there have been 33 occasions, also in qualifying data, where keepers have prevented more than two goals, according to Opta’s Post-shot expected goal (XG) model. Alisson is one of only two keepers who have had two of such competitions. The other Andre Onana in his imperial phase on Inter’s March to the 2023 Champions League final.

In recent years, perhaps only Thibaut Courtois comes to life against the greatest opponents such as Alisson – and what the Brazilian offers with his sweeping behind a high line and possession play makes him the superior all around player. Last Wednesday was perhaps’ the performance of [his] Life, “but in the last five years of the Champions League football he has delivered more often than not. Only once, in the disastrous 5-2 loss for Real Madrid in the spring of 2023, his goals prevented that Mark was worse than -0.6. In 12 games he ended up the match on Plus 0.6.

That brand may have to be hit again. Arne Slot has not discovered any new full backs on the training ground that the Mars of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia or Ousmane Dembele can delay. Liverpool’s midfield will still be technically and physically behind PSGs. Mohamed Salah will have to play and that means that a correct wing player who puts his defensive tasks in the shade, so that he can have an impact on the ball. When their visitors are half of the team, they were in the Parc des Princes, they will get a good part of the shots. Fortunately, there was no great fluopery during the performances of Alisson during the centuries.

2. Leverkusen vs. Bayern Munich: Alonso is going to swing down

Every Feint hopes that Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen may have dug out of the first stage in the first stage, went into smoke early on Monday morning. Scans on the knee of Florian Wirtz unveiled ligament damage, enough to put him aside for an unclear timeline of “a few weeks”. No matter how long that is, he will not return quickly enough for what now looks like the mission: impossible in the Bay Arena.

Wirtz may have raised the ceiling of Leverkusen at such a level that they might have beat Bayern Munich with three goals, such as last season in the Bundesliga. If there are better makers in Europe’s top five competitions, they only count a handful. His 0.91 goal creating that creating actions places him eighth about the continent, his expected assists fifth, even for the will of Raphinha and Mohamed Salah. The absence of Wirtz will be felt deeply.

Paradoxically, however, it can get more from Leverkusen as an attacking force. For all Xabi Alonso’s budding excellence as a coach, his second full season has seen him place more an attacking load on Wirtz, trusting that the last third excellence of his young star can sharpen him on the back and get the goals on the other side. Often that worked and even if Leverkusen did not get the goal last month in their league match against Bayern, Wirtz and Nathan Tella then created an offensive duo more than enough opportunities to win on that occasion.

Similarly, there are quite a big risks to play a system that looks on paper to be a rear four with wing ridges for them. It really trusts both the defenders to stay error -free and Wirtz to see enough of the ball that he can do something with it. Neither of them happened in the first stage and Leverkusen is now three goals down. For many it could be and you could reasonably predict an anodyne second stage where the hosts are interested in little more than proud. On the other hand, when you were unimaginable last season in the predictable changed as Leverkusen did, you couldn’t help it, but believe it can happen again.

“It’s a game in a different dimension for us,” said Alonso, “it can fall for a long time in our individual history – if we play with great heart, passion, aggressiveness, intensity and with a cool head. It is an opportunity we may not have again in our career, so we have to try to end. [story]. “

Leverkusen go for it, but on which fashion? Their system may have worked against Bayern in the past, but now without Wirtz they are perhaps the moment that Alonso releases the reins and gets more of his attackers on the field. Their No. 10 makes it easier for Leverkusen, but in the past two seasons this team is on average a little more goals and XG when Wirtz does not start and only a little less shots. They also give up more of all three on their opponents and speak to the control that their star playmaker offers them. On Tuesday evening, that check must be sacrificed for threat.

What about returning to the 3-4-2-1 that remains a devastating template for Leverkusen? There are options. Patrik Schick may be far before his XG, but it is certainly no harm to see if his hot streak could continue to run. Nathan Tella has consistently delivered against Bayern. The small sample size of Emiliano Buendia in the Bundesliga looks like something that is worth taking another look.

Flank that three with Alex Grimaldo and Jeremie Frimpong and there will be enough talent to put pressure on the Bayern Backline. It can even be enough to briefly elevate the hope for one of those iconic comebacks from Leverkusen. Undoubtedly, such an approach will ask more of a backline that Alonso, perhaps signed by all that late drama, will intend to protect this season. However, if their abandoned attempt at a comeback without Wirtz will pay off, there is no other choice than throwing caution for the wind.

3. Barcelona vs. Benfica: Pedri cuts opponent into fragments

The victory of Barcelona was all the more impressive given the difficulties that came with the extremely early red card from Pau Cubarsi. Could midfield hold his own husband when Dani Olmo was sacrificed for Ronald Arajo? That it was possible, not least to the versatile qualities of Pedri.

You will never confuse the 5ft 9 -ball player with Lee Cattermole, but when there was work without the ball it was Pedri that did it. Nobody recovered more than the 22 -year -old, who did this 11 times in total. He may have lost one of his 15 games than he won, but that is seven times when Pedri won against the larger, heavier man and the ball won.

Do not expect that kind of performance from Pedri on Tuesday evening. Perhaps if that is what the opportunity requires, but instead this feels like a game for the Spain International to be his most expressive self. When strive for victory, Benfica will have to commit bodies and that makes them vulnerable to the incision of the Barcelona master.

With at least Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, Pedri is rarely short of options to let Barcelona fly into the field when the ball comes in his direction. Only five players have completed more this season through balls in Europe’s top five competitions, and it is the same number that is for him in the expected possession value of passing.

Last week’s defensive pork chops were also not one -off. At the top of Opta’s ranking of players who started possessions that end in a shot, you have what you would probably expect: many keepers, defenders and deeper midfielders. They get the ball when their team go. The highest ranked ‘creative’ player you will find with 37 possession that started with him and ended with a shot? Pedri.

Although Raphinha seems to be the obvious competition for the starman of Barcelona and perhaps the natural alternative balloon d’Or winner if something would happen to Salah, Pedri would certainly earn it to be in the conversation. After having put in the hard yards last week, this seems to be a game in which his eye for a pass twinkles.