College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions: The Athletic’s National Championship Picks

Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? Six teams received at least one vote in our survey of 30 college football writers and editors The Athleticsa big change from 10 years of postseason tournaments that featured only four teams in the field.

Although Oregon received the majority of votes, there was a lot of variation as our staff filled out their brackets ahead of the first round, which begins Friday night with Indiana at Notre Dame. Even No. 12 seed Clemson, which has three losses, even got a vote for the national championship.

Here’s who we picked and how these predictions compare to Austin Mock’s projection model:

First round

Not surprisingly, the consensus of our thirty voters is chalk.

According to BetMGM, the better seed will be favored by at least 7.5 points in each first-round game. Mock’s projections give each favorite at least a 65 percent chance of winning, and our closest staff vote is for Tennessee to get 11 votes to win at Ohio State in a matchup that will undoubtedly present challenges for the Buckeyes, especially after the way their offensive line played in the league. loss to Michigan.

Quarterfinals

Oregon finished with a tough tie despite being the nation’s only undefeated team as it will head to the Rose Bowl to face the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee. Mock’s model only gives the Ducks a 53 percent chance of pulling through. Ohio State would be a rematch, as Oregon defeated the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thriller in Eugene in October.

Still, 25 of our 30 voters picked Oregon to win the Rose Bowl, compared to just five for Ohio State and zero for Tennessee. Anyone who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked them to win the national title.

Arizona State is seeded fourth as Big 12 champions but is 12th in the CFP Top 25 – nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas is the overwhelming favorite to beat Clemson and get through the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl to advance to an in-state semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, with only four people picking Arizona State to win and two picking Clemson .

Only three of 30 voters picked Indiana to beat Notre Dame, and none led to the Hoosiers pulling off two upsets and also downing Georgia. However, the staff is split on a possible Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl: Fourteen of the 27 people picking Notre Dame to beat Indiana also have the Fighting Irish toppling the Bulldogs.

This is the least calcareous part of the bracket. Most voters want Penn State to beat SMU at home, but our staff is thrilled to see Boise State revive its Cinderella status on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and the Broncos (3-0) are undefeated in the Fiesta Bowl. Here, only half of the 22 voters who chose Penn State to beat SMU also chose the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. In total, Boise State receives 16 votes to win the Fiesta Bowl, compared to Penn State’s 12 and SMU’s two.

Mock’s model disagrees, as Penn State beats both SMU And Boise State 48 percent of the time.

Semi-finals

Whoever emerges from the Oregon-Ohio State-Tennessee trio could end up with a tough semifinal tie in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, which would be playing close to home. Yet two-thirds of our staff want Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, while only five picked Ohio State, four picked Texas and one pulled off a surprise run to the national title game over No. 12 seed Clemson.

Although Mock’s model puts the chances of Georgia, Penn State and Notre Dame advancing to the national title game between 20 and 29 percent, our staff has mostly rallied around Georgia or Notre Dame. Georgia received 15 votes to win the Orange Bowl to Notre Dame’s 12, while Penn State received just two and Boise State received one.

National Championship

Going undefeated is tough, but 17 of our 30 voters believe Oregon can lead for a 15-0 record and become the first new national champions since Florida in 1996. It’s a big step forward compared to the Ducks who earned 10.7 percent of our preseason votes. and 6.7 percent of the midseason vote.

Only four teams received preseason votes to win the national title: Ohio State (57.1 percent), Georgia (28.6 percent), Oregon (10.7 percent) and Alabama (3.6 percent). That number grew to five by midseason: Texas (50 percent), Ohio State (36.7 percent), Oregon (6.7 percent), Georgia (3.3 percent) and Clemson (3.3 percent).

Now the field of possible national champions has been whittled down to just 12, but six teams received at least one vote to win it all. Here’s an example for each of these six teams:

Oregon: Every other team has a weakness that has been exposed at some point. The teams that pose the biggest threats to Oregon – Ohio State, Texas and Georgia – looked vulnerable the last time they took the field. Oregon’s defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks have shown they can win a shootout when necessary. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I would want if I could pick one Playoff QB to lead a deep run. –Austin Meek

GO DEEPER

Oregon remains undefeated (with swagger) in its inaugural Big Ten season. And the Ducks aren’t done yet

State of Ohio: Ohio State put together a horrific game plan against Michigan and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I expect Ohio State to play much looser and place a premium on getting the nation’s best players in the right spots and maximizing potential mismatches in its favor. —Scott Dochterman

GO DEEPER

Will Howard realizes his final chapter at Ohio State has yet to be written

Texas: The Longhorns have the best and deepest roster. For all the attention on Texas’ quarterbacks and offensive head coach, it’s the defense that has carried the Longhorns: They’re allowing just one point per drive, the lowest in the FBS. And when the offense gets going, Texas is tough to beat. —Sam Khan Jr.

GO DEEPER

Texas will go as far as Quinn Ewers wants, for better or for worse

Georgia: Georgia is talented, extremely battle-tested (six games against top-16 teams) and, most importantly, will be at its healthiest all season long — except for quarterback Carson Beck, of course. Additionally, the title game will take place in Atlanta. – Stewart Mandel

GO DEEPER

A backup QB, of all things, comes to Georgia’s rescue – not at the country’s expense

Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defense will get the job done. I love how this team responded to the loss to Northern Illinois, and that will continue in the Playoff. The Irish were written off after that loss and Marcus Freeman’s group showed impressive determination to move past it. – Daniel Shirley

GO DEEPER

How Notre Dame saved Playoff hopes after worst loss of the season

Clemson: Quinn Ewers hasn’t looked 100 percent since September, Arizona State has to fly all the way to Atlanta for the quarterfinals and the Rose Bowl winner may catch his breath in the semifinals. Ten years of CFP history has taught me that if something good can happen for Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik has had just enough traction, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on a Justyn Ross-esque late-season trajectory and I can’t help but assume Dabo Swinney has the perfect mentality for tournament football. – Eric Single

GO DEEPER

Dabo Swinney guides Clemson back to the Playoff – fool’s gold or proof of concept?

So what matchup will we see for the national championship on January 20 in Atlanta?

Stewart Mandel ranked all 36 possibilities after the bracket was revealed. Our 30 voters came up with eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia most common with a third of the votes. Twenty-seven of the thirty had at least one from Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia, including two who picked Georgia to face Texas for the third time this season.

Special shout out to our one voter who favored the chaos bracket pick of Clemson vs. Boise State went.

(Photo of Jalon Walker and Dillon Gabriel: Tim Warner, Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)