College Football Playoff stock watch: Why Penn State is rising, Michigan is falling

We’re about a quarter of the way through the college football season and there’s no shortage of drama. Three of the twelve teams that my model predicts will make the College Football Playoff in the preseason are no longer in the field, and three teams that were in the bubble have also been left out. And all that in just four weeks.

When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams on the rise were Miami, Tennessee and USC. As it stands now, Miami is the projected third seed as a team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance to make the Playoff, 40 percent chance to win the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is seeded No. 10 with a 73 percent chance of making the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC remains clinging to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11th seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have increased their projected seeding percentage since two weeks ago (each up one spot), while USC is down one spot.

On the other hand, the three teams I wrote about that were on a downward trend were Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected Playoff field as a No. 6 seed, and its Playoff odds have increased to 87 percent, even though the overall team rating has not increased in my rankings. Notre Dame has risen on the bubble since a crushing home loss to Northern Illinois two weeks ago, but its Irish Playoff odds are up just 5 percentage points to 37 percent.

As for Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just got a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not sold on the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.

Stock up

Penn State

The Nittany Lions’ playoff odds have increased 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, the sixth-highest in the country. More importantly, their overall team strength increased by 2.5 points (this is compared to an average FBS team). The defense has suffered some bumps and bruises, but should still be a top-20 unit. The most important improvement was in violation behavior. According to TruMedia, Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per game on offense, 13th in offensive success and third in explosive play percentage. Sure, the Kent State game might back up these numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with West Virginia’s defense on the road and beat a solid Bowling Green team that just gave Texas A&M all it could handle in College Station.

The other thing that works out well for Penn State is the schedule. Penn State is expected to be the favorite in all but one game for the rest of the year — and even in that one game at home against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will be another tough task, but other than that, the road trips to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t look as intimidating as they did at the start of the season.

My model has Penn State winning more than 10 games in 72 percent of simulations, which should ensure it makes the Playoff.

GO DEEPER

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Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn images)

Boise State

Boise State was just a few steps away from beating Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ playoff odds are up 13 percentage points, to 36 percent from two weeks ago. Now I have to say that the Group of 5’s projection may be a little shaky, as I’m not sure how the committee will view each conference. But one thing the Broncos have going for them is that Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) have lost the last two weeks, and neither loss will be as big as a road loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a favored touchdown game, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.

Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back taken in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes of 20+ yards. Even if the defense stacks the box, Jeanty can burn you. If a Heisman Trophy were given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason why Boise State has the best Playoff odds in the Group of 5.

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Stock down

Michigan

Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it only went 32 yards and won on big runs and a pick-six. That will be a difficult recipe to maintain against good opponents. Of course, Alex Orji’s move at quarterback is the best thing for the team, but ultimately the Wolverines just seem like a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of years past. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a Playoff run? That’s unlikely.

Michigan still has Oregon at home, as well as a trip to Ohio State. Don’t sleep on road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance of making the Playoff last week, and that number rose to just 5 percent after USC’s win. Such a slight increase paints a picture of longer-term concerns.

It’s possible Orji makes the Wolverines’ run game more explosive than it was in the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings appears to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late against USC. And managing the ball efficiently while taking care of the football with great defense has been successful in recent years in the Big Ten. I’m just not sure this is a recipe for becoming a Playoff team. With a loss already on the books and the tough slate still ahead, I’ve had time to see Michigan rack up double-digit wins.

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LSU

I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels along with two wide receivers in the first round, but I also expected some improvement on defense. So far, LSU just isn’t good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per game, 74th in defensive success rate and 82nd in yards per play at first. It also has a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to start the year, just losing star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. due to a season-ending injury.

My projections had LSU at 24 percent to make the Playoff two weeks ago, and that number has dropped to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied at home to a bad UCLA team during the rest is not possible. to give my model some confidence in LSU. Could this move win the Tigers a few games? Yes of course. I’m optimistic about the offense behind Garrett Nussmeier for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, LSU has not taken the steps needed on defense to become a Playoff contender.

GO DEEPER

LSU star LB Harold Perkins out for season with torn ACL: Source

(Photo: Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)