By means of Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter
The PHILIPPINES’ Gross International Reserves (GIR) rose to a record high in late September, the Bangko Sentral ng PiliPinas (BSP) said this on Monday.
Central bank data show that dollar reserves rose 3.8% to $112 billion at the end of September, from $107.9 billion at the end of August.
“The month-on-month increase in the GIR level reFprimarily uses the net foreign currency deposits of the National Government (NG) with the BSP, including proceeds from the NG issuance of global bonds of the Republic of the Philippines,” the BSP said in a statement.
In August, NG raised $2.5 billion from the sale of US dollar-denominated global bonds in three tranches. This was the government’s second global bond issueFoffer this year.
Year on year, gross international reserves rose 14.2% from $98.1 billion.
BSP data showed that the level of dollar reserves was sufficient to cover about 6.3 times the country’s short-term external debt based on the original maturity and 4.4 times based on the remaining maturity.
It also corresponded to 8.1 months of imports of goods and payments for services and primary income.
Ample foreign exchangeFThese protect an economy from market volatility and ensure that a country can pay its debts in the event of an economic downturn.
THE VALUATION OF GOLD RESERVES IS RISING
The central bank also attributed the increase in dollar reserves to “upward valuation adjustments in the BSP’s gold reserves due to the increase in gold prices in the international market and net income from the BSP’s investments abroad.”
The central bank’s foreign investment rose 2.4% to $94.5 billion in September, up from $92.3 billion in the previous month. Year on year, foreign investment increased by 13.9% from $83 billion.
Gold reserves were valued at $10.9 billion at the end of September, up 6.9% from $10.2 billion at the end of August. It was also 11.2% higher than $9.8 billion a year ago.
The BSP previously defended its sale of US gold stocks Fin the first half of the year and said it benefited from favorable pricing as part of its active management strategy.
The sale of gold had generated “additional income without compromising the primary objectives for holding gold, namely insurance and safety,” it added.
Central bank data show foreign currency deposits rose 157% to $2.03 billion in September, up from $789.5 million a month earlier. It also rose from $834.4 million in the previous year.
Net international reserves rose to $112 billion at the end of September from $107.8 billion at the end of August, the BSP said.
The net international reserves are the diFbetween the BSP’s reserves (GIR) and reserve requirements, such as foreign short-term debt and International Monetary Fund (IMF) credits and loans.
The country’s reserve position in the IMF rose 0.7% to $731.1 million in September, compared to $725.9 million in the previous month, but fell 6% from $778.1 million a year past.
The Special Drawing Rights – the amount the country can tap from the IMF – remained unchanged for the second month in a row at $3.85 billion.
“It is entirely possible that the BSP has been proactively building its GIR. Without healthy intervention in the foreign exchange market, the peso would have overtaken (strengthened) too quickly,” Emilio S. Neri, Jr., chief economist of the Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) said in a Viber message.
Michael L. Ricafort, chief economist of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., said international reserves have increased due to proceeds from the NG’s issuance of dollar bonds, as well as continued growth in remittances, foreign tourism receipts and direct foreign investment.
“The country’s strong external position would also support the country’s favorable credit ratings, which are one to three points above minimum investment grade,” he added.
John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, also said this was mainly due to the surge in remittances.
“It’s that time of year again when remittances increase as the holidays approach and the registration period begins. Returns and dividends for foreign investments are also collected,” he said via a Viber message.
“The sale of gold may also have contributed to the BSP’s reclassification of assets from gold to US dollars. In short, there have been inflows recently,” he added.
In the January-July period, remittances rose 2.9% year-on-year to $19.332 billion.
Mr. Neri noted that the beginning of the US Federal Reserve was a reality The easing cycle also supported the GIR.
“The space to build import coverage and debt coverage generally arises when the Federal Reserve moves to ease policy,” he said.
The US central bank cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to a range of 4.75%-5% in September, the first interest rate cut in four years.
“The import coverage is more than double the international standard of 3-4 months that bu would continue to offerFI want support for the peso exchange rate,” Mr Ricafort added.
Mr Neri said the current GIR level of $112 billion is only about $20 billion less than the country’s external debt.
Separate data from the BSP showed that outstanding foreign debt reached a record $130.182 billion at the end of June.
“With further US rate cuts expected, the BSP can accumulate further as long as reverse buyback rates are not cut much more aggressively than the Fed,” Mr Neri added.
BSP chief Eli M. Remolona Jr. has said the Monetary Board may implement rate cuts of 25 basis points during its remaining two meetings this year, on October 16 and December 19.
The BSP expects the country’s GIR to reach $106 billion by the end of 2024.