England predicted line-up against Netherlands in Euro 2024 semi-finals: why Phil Foden continues to struggle

England are in the semi-finals of Euro 2024, but no one associated with the Three Lions would be fooling themselves into thinking there is anything other than an awful lot of work if they want to lift the Henri Delauney Trophy. That work will begin by Netherlands in Dortmundperhaps the biggest test Gareth Southgate’s side have faced in a tournament where more ordinary opposition looked like a struggle for them.

It is indeed faint praise to say that their quarter-final victory over Switzerland on penalties was one of their best performances in the competition to date. They simply weren’t particularly unpleasant to watch, even if they still needed heroism from Bukayo Saka and nerves of steel from their penalty takers to get past robust but unremarkable opposition. How much of England’s relative improvement was down to a slightly overhyped change of formation – presumably a move to a back three, often England looked like a back four team functioning with the common trope of a left back who was far more advanced than his right-sided counterpart — is an open question. The fact that they won with it could indicate that this messed up approach will continue as long as they are in the tournament.

With that in mind, which positions and players could be under Southgate’s microscope?

Can anything deliver for Manchester City’s Foden?

As for the players who seem unable to leave the pitch, it’s worth thinking about the minutes Phil Foden played. In the England games so far he has played 90, 69, 89, 89 and 115 minutes of football. If you saw these numbers at the end of the season, it wouldn’t even be a surprise: one of the best players from last season’s Premier League is taking a leading role on the international stage. And yet, ahead of his 40th cap on Wednesday evening, England are yet to see a Foden performance that comes close to the foundation he set with Manchester City this season.

One thing is certain. If Foden was as wasteful in top positions for City as he was for England, Pep Guardiola would never leave him on the pitch for so long.

While it is worth noting that his best shot in this tournament was disallowed for offside, Foden’s nine attempts are worth a total of 0.31 expected goals (xG). The caption above states that the shot points are the size of the xG value. That’s really not a typo. Three of the shots he’s made are literally one in a hundred attempts. At no stage in the last four years of Premier League and Champions League football has he had such poor shots.

Among the 171 players at Euro 2024 who have scored three or more shots, Foden ranks 151st for xG per shot at 0.035, surrounded by the kind of defensive midfielders – N’Golo Kante, Declan Rice, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg – who invariably I’m going to hit and hope more than most. Meanwhile, a player with an average of 0.23 expected assists (xA) per 90 for his club is at 0.08 at Euro 2024, slightly lower than Marc Guehi. Something isn’t working, regardless of the sparks of life some saw in the first half against the Swiss.

Perhaps the fault lies less with Foden himself than with the surrounding pieces. If you started the tournament on the left you would think his best role was to drift inside, but to do that effectively he would need a left back to overlap. Kieran Trippier hasn’t been. Did the 24-year-old move into midfield more often than could be expected against Switzerland, because someone had to provide progression that is not the strength of Rice or Kobbie Mainoo?

Whatever the explanation, the end result is the same. England get a player who seems to have been given a free role that he never had for his club. It would hardly be a wonder if, instead of gambling around the field, he felt lost without a defined role to play. It is difficult to see a team on the move that will put him together in a certain system two games before the tournament ends.

Should Southgate want a more free-flowing talent in his frontline, there are options available to him. Cole Palmer spent much of last season with the ball thrown to him in a Chelsea side that had few attacking automatics, tasked with beating his man and creating a shot for himself or his teammate. No wonder he looked so at ease as England chased the game and showed little semblance of structure or tactical underpinnings. So far, Palmer hasn’t delivered much in the way of final product, but he is a “maverick” artist who “makes things happen.” There’s nothing the English game loves more, except perhaps a cracking slide tackle. Averaging every 11 minutes, could he be the man to add some spice to England’s cause?

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Harry Kane drained under pressure

Now let’s move on to something easier that we can make a confident prediction about. Barring a remarkable series of events, Southgate will not drop his captaincy, one of the mainstays in the run to three semi-finals in the last four major tournaments. Despite all his difficulties in recent weeks, that is an understandable attitude. If the ball falls to an English player in the penalty area, you’ll want it to be Harry Kane.

The question is whether he will be in the box when needed. A few set pieces on Saturday provided an example of the problems Kane brings to his teammates. Moments before Switzerland took the lead, the England captain was again on the edge of his penalty area, working hard to shield the centre-backs behind him and secure possession. Kane did get the ball back, one of five touches in his defensive third (as many as he managed in the Swiss box) and it wasn’t long before Kieran Trippier and Jude Bellingham had worked themselves into prime position on the left flank. Unfortunately for them, all their options were on the other side of the field. There was a gap on the near side of the penalty area, which Kane would fill seconds later as he walked onto the pitch.

Kane has never been the kind of sprinter who can move from one side of the field to the other in the blink of an eye. He will not become that at the age of 30, at the end of an international tournament, after a grueling season that ended prematurely due to an ongoing problem. The England captain is already rumored to be Cristiano Ronaldo. He could do everything he can to become more like Portugal’s talisman-cum-magnet. Just camp near the other team’s penalty area, Harry. Let the ball find you.

Astonishingly, England have already proven that this works for them. Their best performance of the tournament was the 1-0 win over Serbia, with Kane staying high (especially in the first half, where he had just two touches) to create space for Bellingham and others to play into. While almost everyone else in this England team has a pathological need to get to the ball, all Kane has to do is hold his line and force the centre-backs to stay with him. That should not exceed his capabilities. If so, Southgate will have to be much bolder to suppress him.

Shaw and other concerns

There’s a lot for England to worry about, so let’s briefly review a few other things:

• Is Luke Shaw good to go from the start? Even when introduced as a left-footed centre-back, the Manchester United man showed the ability to stretch England’s left flank all the way to the byline in a way that simply doesn’t make sense for the right-footed Trippier. The challenge in betting on Shaw’s fitness is that a Dutch right wing, in which Denzel Dumfries is so often free to bomb from full-back, would ask questions of anyone, let alone a man who played just a few hundred last season. minutes when injuries hit hard. .
• Shaw’s presence could go some way to improving this side’s deep progression, whose exit from their own third has proven painfully slow at times. It doesn’t help that neither Rice nor Kobbie Mainoo are natural passers.
  The latter has shown that he can drive his team up the field with the ball at his feet, but such moments are notable in part because they are so rare. So far, Mainoo is averaging just 13 percent of his passes forward and completing 2.13 carries of 10 yards plus per 90 minutes. That’s not to say he looks ineffective, his work off the ball in the Swiss half has contributed significantly to that. Whatever the system, England must find a way to utilize the ability of both him and Rice to put pressure on teams trying to break the initial lines of the press. Any system with the speedy Kyle Walker and Shaw defending the flanks could help.
• Away from the starting XI, Southgate can expect a sharp focus on how and when he makes his changes. Just because Ivan Toney, Shaw and Palmer have had a meaningful impact off the bench does not absolve the England manager of blame. It should be seen as a challenge for him. How can he let situations drift for so long? Why was the initiative not taken sooner? Choose a scenario and England are likely to have a player on the bench who can make the right impact.

Predicted England XI

Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi; Saka, Rice, Mainoo, Shaw; Foden, Bellingham; Kane

How to watch and odds

• Date: Wednesday July 10 | Time: 3:00 PM ET
• Place: BVB Stadium – Dortmund, Germany
• Watch: Fox or Fubo (try for free)
• Chances: Netherlands +200; Sign +190; England +170