Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, has claimed there is a “20-25% chance” he could become prime minister in the next four years – possibly before Donald Trump leaves the White House in January – if economic turmoil prompts to early elections.
Farage made the comments in an interview for 5 News with Dan Walker, in which he suggested that another market-driven crisis, such as that caused by Liz Truss’ premiership, could bring down the current government.
“A run on the markets could lead to that,” Farage said, drawing parallels with past political upheavals. “I wouldn’t put it at more than 20%, 25%, but it is possible.”
While Farage’s estimate seems high, seasoned political commentators have explored scenarios in which the Conservative Party collapses, paving the way for Reform UK to replace it. Peter Kellner, former chief executive of YouGov, outlined a potential strategy for Farage on Substack, describing it as ‘an outside opportunity to work – nothing more’. Another analyst, Sam Freedman, wondered whether the reforms could kill the Tory Party completely, but warned that this would require a sustained rise in the reforms’ polls, a decisive wave of support from Tory donors and MPs, and eventual success in the next general election. elections – probably in 2028 or 2029.
Freedman added that under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, two right-wing parties cannot both survive in direct competition in the long run, noting: “A ‘winner takes all’ system… will always end up crushing one party. or a merger.”
Yet doubts remain over whether the support Farage needs will materialize. The Conservative Party has proven resilient to fragmentation in the past, and Freedman cites possible negative perceptions of Farage’s association with figures like Elon Musk as an ongoing obstacle. For now, though, Farage is talking up his chances – and the latest poll for Reform UK suggests Westminster should not sack him entirely.