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Although it is still two years away, the road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup is in full swing and a number of interesting trends are already developing within the various federations. With Mexico, Canada and the United States hosting, the three CONCACAF nations are assured of qualification, meaning the region goes more or less based on the strengths of the remaining sides. The UEFA and OFC qualifiers haven’t started yet, but AFC, CAF and CONMEBOL are all at different stages of their respective qualifiers.
We look at the countries that are currently most at risk.
AFC: Australia
It’s been a catastrophic start to the World Cup qualifiers for the Socceroos with one point from a possible six in Group C. Graham Arnold’s men have failed to score a single goal in their two opening games and the most shocking thing is that they have already done so. failed to beat Bahrain and Indonesia in a group that also includes regional heavyweights Japan and rising power Saudi Arabia. A 1-0 home defeat to Bahrain was particularly worrying, although a goalless draw in Indonesia wasn’t exactly much better and one point from six so far makes the next game against China in October absolutely crucial. Japan away next month will be a tall order, but Saudi Arabia at home in November before Indonesia is away to complete 2024 will need to return at least two wins and a draw – perhaps three wins – if the Socceroos are to have a chance of reaching a summit -two finishes. Automatic qualification could be in jeopardy as early as November, so Arnold would be better off planning for a possible Fourth Round berth – assuming he’s still in the lead by then.
CAF: Nigeria
Australia’s rival in disasters is Nigeria, despite there being no CAF World Cup qualifiers until March next year. The Super Eagles are already in all kinds of trouble in Group C with three points from four games, in a process that started at the end of 2023. The Nigerians have three points from four games, despite their incredible attacking talent, and have suffered some truly shocking problems. results including a 1-1 home draw against Lesotho. No win and no head coach after the failed signing of Bruno Labaddia leaves Nigeria four points off pace for even a potential second round of qualifying, although qualifying for the Africa Cup of Nations is going better at the moment. Rwanda is the surprise leader of CAF’s World Cup Qualifying Group C, ahead of South Africa, while Benin is also competitive and currently leads the Super Eagles in the standings. Elsewhere in CAF, continental giants Senegal and Bafana Bafana, while their situations are not nearly as desperate as Nigeria’s, should be wary that their respective current points totals of eight and seven would put them below the anticipated cut-off point in the rankings. second place, which would allow four countries to advance to the second qualifying round.
CONMEBOL: Brazil
One of the big stories right now is how Brazil is once again flirting with disaster in South America after Tuesday’s 1-0 defeat to Paraguay. The Selecao are rebuilding under Dorival Junior, but are struggling mightily after the Tite and largely without the injury-prone Neymar. A 5-1 thrashing of Bolivia and an away victory at Peru in the opening qualifiers indicated a strong campaign, but the Brazilians have since lost to Uruguay, Colombia, Argentina and now the Albirroja and were also held at home by Venezuela. With Bolivia, Vinotinto and Paraguay all surprisingly competitive, Ecuador is also in danger while Chile and Peru are already more or less out of contention. Dorival Junior was confident earlier this week that Brazil will make a deep run in 2026, but recent form suggests such confidence and complacency could be dangerous right now. Chile and Venezuela away and Peru and Uruguay at home before the end of the year should bring more points and a turnaround in fortunes, but qualifying for South America can be tricky and even the likes of Argentina have come close in the past.
UEFA: UNL underperforms
Although the European qualifiers have not yet been drawn or scheduled, these countries should be aware that current UEFA Nations League results and performances will count towards their potential path to 2026. With that in mind, Scotland and Switzerland have both matches so far lost, while France, Belgium, Croatia and European champions Spain have not won both matches so far. Les Bleus lost at home to an improved Italy as pressure began to mount on head coach Didier Deschamps and star player Kylian Mbappe after a disappointing UEFA Euro 2024. The captain was not in the starting line-up for the win over the Belgians, which coincided with a much improved and smoother performances from the French, so it will be interesting to see how that develops as part of a more important UNL than usual given its influence on the makeup of the next World Cup qualifiers.
CONCACAF: No one yet
With Mexico, Canada and the US having already qualified as joint host countries, this region is progressing more or less as expected, with no big names in danger of missing out at the moment. Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, Jamaica and Guatemala all have maximum points, so there are no major concerns yet. However, with the Stars and Stripes, El Tri and the Canucks out of the mix, the pressure is on all of these names to advance to the third round with relative ease.