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The first full Saturday of the college football season is in the books and the College Football Playoff race is already at the top of the agenda.
Yes, it’s only one week of play. Yes, we always overreact to week 1. Yes, there is still a lot of football to be played. But it’s impossible to ignore the new 12-team CFP, as every Football Bowl Subdivision team enters the season with a chance to get on the field now. And even one week of action was enough to gain some insights that will influence the CFP race the rest of the way.
Here are five Playoff-adjacent takeaways from Week 1.
1. Brace yourself for a few flare-ups in December.
Skewed results were a common problem during the decade of the CFP’s four-team existence. Whether it was in the semifinals (Alabama vs. everyone) or the national championship game (Georgia 65, TCU 7), several Playoff matchups turned into blowouts because the best teams in the sport were so much better than everyone else. Georgia and Clemson’s opening game at a neutral site in Atlanta also served as a test for a 12-team era, as the No. 1 ranked SEC favorite took on one of the top teams in the ACC, No. 14.
The result: a 34-3 loss, with the Bulldogs leading the Tigers by 25 in the second half. Georgia is looking as good as everyone thought it would be. It’s hard to imagine the Bulldogs not reaching the Playoff for the third time in four years, whether as SEC champions or as one of the seven overall selections. Georgia has a tough schedule: traveling to Alabama in Week 4, to Texas in mid-October and to Ole Miss in November, but any SEC contender with two losses will likely still make the field. That fact may one day take some of the shine off these high-profile regular season tests, but that’s the price paid to ensure more universal access to the championship in an expanded Playoff. And if this Georgia team is paired with another ACC team, a Big 12 team or a Group of 5 team in the early rounds of December, the talent disparity could lead to ugly final margins, as we saw on Saturday.
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Clemson, meanwhile, showed the same offensive issues as a year ago. Georgia may be the best team in the country, but based on Saturday’s effort, the Tigers once again don’t look like a national championship contender. Still, the 12-team format means no Power 4 conference team will be ready after Week 1. All Clemson has to do is win the ACC to secure itself a spot. And that still seems feasible, because…
2. Miami looks great, but the rest of the ACC doesn’t.
As the ACC league office battles Florida State and Clemson in court amid the two members’ continued efforts to extricate themselves from the conference’s grant of rights agreement, it would have behooved the ACC to reach a to make a strong start on the field and maintain the lead. realignment noise in the background. The league started the season with no shortage of optimism thanks to seven teams in the top 30 of the AP poll (three of which landed just outside the Top 25).
Instead, it was a tough first week for what was seen as the top of the league. Defending champion and preseason favorite Florida State lost to Georgia Tech in Ireland in Week 0, Clemson was defeated by Georgia on Saturday, popular dark horse pick Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt and preseason No. 24 NC State had a fourth-quarter comeback needed to escape Western Carolina on Thursday.
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But then there’s Miami! The Hurricanes lived up to their offseason hype with a dominant 41-17 win at Florida. Transfer quarterback Cam Ward looked spectacular, as did Miami’s other transfer signings. That’s getting what you paid for. It’s only been a week, but Miami looked like the best team in the league by a wide margin. And with a schedule that avoids Clemson and draws Virginia Tech and Florida State home, Miami will suddenly be a very popular choice to get into the CFP.
The Hurricanes now have a 42 percent chance of making the Playoff and a 23 percent chance of winning the ACC, according to Austin Mock’s projection model, while Clemson and Florida State each have a 20 percent chance of making the CFP . Outside of Miami, the rest of the league will have to play much better if the conference wants to find a second CFP bid.
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3. Penn State looks like a real contender.
When the CFP expanded to twelve teams, Penn State seemed to be the biggest beneficiary: the Nittany Lions have finished in the top twelve six times since 2016, but never made the four-team CFP field.
That feeling is even stronger after Penn State’s dominant 34-12 victory in West Virginia. The defense was its usual physical and sturdy self, but the offense was explosive, and dare I say exciting, after drawing meme-worthy ridicule last year for its reluctance to attack vertically. The Nittany Lions had two gains of at least 50 yards on Saturday after getting just five last season. Quarterback Drew Allar finished 11 of 17 passing for 216 yards and three touchdowns, plus another 44 yards on the ground. He looked composed and sharp on the road, which was not the case last year.
It’s early, but Penn State looked like a team that might not make the CFP but will win a few games. According to our model, the Nittany Lions now have a 74 percent chance of making the CFP, up from 67 percent before Week 1.
4. Notre Dame already has a shortcut to the Playoff.
As an independent, the Fighting Irish don’t have a conference championship to play for, and because the top four seeds in the expanded CFP go to the four highest-ranked conference champions, even a Notre Dame team ranked No. 1 at the end. of the season would not receive a bye in the first round. Still, the additional bids available in the expanded field greatly help the Irish’s chances of making the Playoff, and after a season-opening 23-13 win against Texas A&M in College Station, Notre Dame should already be heavily favored to advance to qualify. with a 72 percent to make it, according to The Athletics‘s model.
It’s very likely that Notre Dame will be favored in every game remaining on the schedule: the toughest remaining games are likely at Georgia Tech, at home against Florida State and at USC to close out the year. The Irish can probably afford to lose one and still end up at 11-1 in the CFP field. Marcus Freeman’s team has Playoff expectations this year and Saturday’s win was a huge step toward that goal. A resulting win in Week 1 makes their margin for error that much greater.
5. The Group of 5 favorites escaped some scares, with big Power 4 tests ahead.
The new stakes for the Group of 5 became immediately apparent when Boise State, the preseason favorite for the CFP spot reserved for the G5’s top-ranked conference champion, trailed Georgia Southern in the fourth quarter. The Broncos rallied to win 56-45 on the back of 377 rushing yards between Ashton Jeanty and Sire Gaines, maintaining their status as the Mountain West frontrunner and depleting Jeanty’s depth pool. Next up is a trip to Oregon, which had to hold on to survive an upset bid from FCS Idaho.
Sun Belt favorite Appalachian State led East Tennessee State by just seven points deep in the third quarter, but went on to win 38-10. Next up for the Mountaineers: a trip to Clemson.
Meanwhile, defending Conference USA champion Liberty trailed FCS Campbell deep in the second quarter and led by just 10 points entering the fourth, but ultimately won 41-24. AAC favorite Memphis, for its part, had no problems during a 40-0 win against FCS North Alabama. The Tigers travel to Florida State in two weeks. The strength of these teams’ resumes and their conferences will be scrutinized throughout the fall.
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(Photo: Jack Gorman/Getty Images)