Some rules are meant to be broken.
The ancient – and sometimes controversial — The 4% rule means that a retiree should be able to withdraw 4% of their savings and investments in the first year of retirement and then adjust the dollar figure each year based on their updated balance. The theory is that this method gives people an excellent chance of not outliving their money.
That would mean that someone with $1 million in savings and investments who followed the 4% rule could spend an inflation-adjusted $40,000 in retirement each year.
But some years that rule just doesn’t hold up.
Morningstar suggests in a new one research report that retirees looking for a safe starting withdrawal should not exceed 3.7%. That gives them a 90% chance that they will still have some money left after a retirement period of 30 years.
Last year, Morningstar estimated 4% as the safe starting rate for withdrawals. The recommended rate was 3.8% in 2022 and 3.3% in 2021.
The decline in the withdrawal rate compared to last year was largely due to higher equity valuations and lower fixed income yields, resulting in lower return assumptions for stocks, bonds and cash over the next 30 years, according to Christine Benz, director of personal finance at Morningstar . finance and retirement planning.
The research follows a strong year for the US stock market. Year to date, the S&P 500 SPX is up 27%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is up 16%, the Nasdaq COMP is up 34%, and the Russell 2000 RUT is up 16%. These returns have helped increase the number of “401(k) millionaires,” Fidelity reported.
Although the 30-year inflation expectation has fallen from 2.42% to 2.32%, lower return expectations for stocks, bonds and cash more than offset the positive direction of the inflation forecast, Morningstar said in the report.
“From 3.7% and with a 30-year time horizon, from say 65 to 95, this would leave you with some leftover assets that you can use if you live longer or want to leave money to heirs.” Benz told MarketWatch.