Filipino economic growth is expected to be accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024, powered by strong consumer spending during the holidays, although the print of the entire year was probably not successful in the goal of the government, a Business world Poll turned out.
The gross domestic product (GDP) in the period from October to December probably grew by 5.8% compared to a year earlier, which accelerated the growth of 5.2% in the third quarter, according to the median prediction of a Business world Poll from 18 economists and analysts last week.
This would correspond to the extension of 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2023.
At the same time, the Business world The survey resulted in a median estimate of 5.7% for 2024, under the revised 6-6.5% GDP growth equipment of the Development Budget Coordination Committee.
If realized, the growth would be faster in 2024 than the 5.5% print in 2023. This would also be the fastest annual economic growth in two years or since the 7.6% in 2022.
The estimate of the entire year would also be lower than the predictions of the Asian Development Bank (6%), World Bank (5.9%), International Monetary Fund (5.8%) and Asean+3 Macro -economic ofFice (5.8%).
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will release the fourth quarter and the entire year throughout 2024 on Thursday 30 January.
“The primary growth engine of the economy, the consumption of the household, was probably recovering from its subdued growth in the first half of last year, supported by lower and stable inflation, a robust labor market and steady intake of remittance,” said Chinabank Research in An e in an e -mail.
It also noted that the series of typhoons economic activities in agriculture, construction and tourism ‘disrupted’ in the last three months of the year.
Six typhoons struck the Philippines between October and November, which resulted in economic losses worth more than P22 billion, according to situational reports from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. Destructible, the Bureau P13.7 billion in infrastructure damage, P7.47 billion in agriculture, estimated and P1.16 billion in irrigation systems.
Security Bank Corp. Vice-president and research division Head of Angelo B. Taningco said in an e-mail that household consumption probably accelerated because of the holidays and higher transfer flows.
“We have observed resilient services activity to the production side – supported by retail trade, accommodation and food services and finances – and positive production growth, although dragged through slow agriculture,” said Mr Taningco.
Reinielle Matt M. Ereece, economist at Oikonomia Advisory and Research, said in an e-mail that increased government spending may have been a factor in stimulating GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
In the 11 months to November, government spending increased by 12.96% to P5.28 trillion, almost 92% of the revised P5.8 trillion expenditure program for 2024.
Pantheon Macroeconomy Chef emerging Asia economist Miguel Chanco said in an e-mail that he expects only a “modest bounce” in GDP growth from the fourth quarter to 5.4%.
“This must be largely powered by a jump in the growth of government spending, where basic effects are quite favorable. Certainly, the economy seems to have found some appearance of stability of the end of the end of the end of last year, in terms of a sequentially quarter-on-quarter momentum, “he said via e-mail.
Mr Chanco noted that the main wind for private consumption is that “inflation remains under control and the labor market is still in a fairly considerable form.”
Consumer prices in the last three months crawled up slightly. Inflation in October took up to 2.3%, then to 2.5%in November before accelerated a high point of four months of 2.9%in December.
The average inflation reached 3.2% in 2024.
Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, chief economist at Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., said that inflation data in 2024 were a “positive surprise” and said it was lower than predictions.
Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist at Union Bank of the Philippines, said in an e-mail that the private construction may have contributed to the resistance in the growth of the fourth quarter.
“Free two -digit vacancy rates in residential and ofFICE/Commercial space segment, while the delivery/inventory of condominium units of the middle market is equal to almost three years (34 months), according to local real estate analysts, “said Mr Asuncion.
He also noted that the total ban on Filipino offshore gaming operators “weighed in the other service segment of the service sector and the administrative and support services.”
Sarah Tan, economist at Moody’s Analytics, said that “bad” external circumstances in the fourth quarter influence the export of electronics That weighed on the total export growth.
“Despite the revival in the global technical cycle, which has indicated a strong demand for advanced semiconductors, the Philippines are omitted in the cold,” said Mrs. Tan in an e-mail.
Preliminary data from the PSA showed that the trade deficit of the country of the country was extended last year to a highlight of $ 54.21 billion when the import was picked up while the export continued to fall.
Electronic products, which were almost 40% of total exports last year, fell by 6.7% to $ 39.08 billion. Semiconductors, which formed most of the electronic products, went together with 13.5% to $ 29.16 billion.
On the import side, electronic products fell by 2.7% to $ 27.37 billion last year, while semiconductors fell by 1.8% to $ 18.5 billion.
OPTIMISM
In the meantime, many economists and analysts are optimistic about the Filipino economic prospects for this year.
“We expect that the Filipino economy will retain its upward growth process this year on the back of improving consumption and investments because of the prospects for stable, inflation within the goal and lower loan costs,” said Chinabank Research.
“A higher government budget this year, together with persistent infrastructure expenditure, will also support growth,” it added.
Sun Life Investment Management and Trust Corp. Economist Patrick M. Ella said he expected that GDP will grow by 6.2% this year “in a continuation of the consumption of households and companies that invest in capital expenses in a better clip.”
Although Filipino growth missed the target in 2024, Mr. Mapa said that this year “probably could be a different story.”
“The growth missed the target because capital formation remains under pre-Pandemic levels, but 2025 promises to be a better year for the sector thanks to policy improvement of the Bangko Sentral NG Pilipinas (BSP). Projected follow -up speed reductions can help to further support growth in 2025 and to ensure that growth finally touches the objective, “he said.
The BSP started its relaxation cycle in August last year and supplied a total of 75 BP in cuts to bring the bench market rate to 5.75%. – Kenneth H. Hernandez