How did I do it? Looking back at my 2024 healthcare predictions

Every year I dust off my crystal ball and try to predict what lies ahead for healthcare. For the purpose of assessing the state of the industry and refining my crystal ball, I decided to revisit my predictions about what we can expect in 2024. What I’ve discovered is that sometimes I’m wrong, sometimes I’m right, and I’m always surprised by the speed of change in what is undoubtedly one of America’s most dynamic industries.

So, without further ado, let’s see which of my bold predictions were spot on and which were as off as a broken stethoscope.

Prediction for 2024: Presidential candidates will be largely silent on health care.

At the end of 2023, I had little reason to believe that health care could become a focus of the upcoming presidential campaign. Unfortunately I was right. The topic, which concerns all Americans, was hardly discussed and should be addressed less in any substantive way.

In the future, I think healthcare will become a political issue, but the discussion will likely be built around what I call the “RFK Jr. Effect.” Fringe ideas about wellness, disease causation and medicine will become mainstream. Skepticism about the work of health professionals will increase. Until, of course, people develop a real need for care. Then they will be grateful for the science-based healers who are the backbone of our healthcare industry and may wonder why we don’t talk about them more when choosing our leaders.

Prediction for 2024: Megamergers are coming back.

Looking back on my original prediction, I would say that I was somewhat wrong in anticipating an increase in the number of ‘mega mergers’. As expected, Cigna did indeed divest its Medicare business in 2024, selling it to Health Care Service Corporation for $3.7 billion. Other than that, I would describe what we saw in 2024 as a healthy number of mergers, although deal volume was slightly lower than in 2023.

However, I do not completely deviate from this prediction. In 2024, hospital mergers increased, with Ohio’s Summa Health joining Health Assurance Transformation for $485 million, Adventist acquiring Sierra Vista and Twin Cities Community for $550 million, and acquiring Risant Cone Health, to name just a few notable acquisitions . These may not be mega-sized, but they are mergers and they continue to be a harbinger of increasing healthcare consolidation.

Forecast for 2024: Medicare Advantage growth will slow.

In 2024, MA enrollments grew by approx same rate like in 2023. My feeling that criticizing the program would cause people to give up on it simply hasn’t materialized. I suspect this is because beneficiaries have discovered that MA plans offer rich benefits and limits out-of-pocket expenses, things you simply can’t get with traditional Medicare. (Disclosure: I run SCAN Health Plan, a Medicare Advantage Plan headquartered in California with >297,000 members.)

In the future, critics of MA are likely to find their arguments less convincing than ever. Last week, the Biden administration suggested an increase in payments to MA plans in 2026. Also, Dr. Mehmet Oz, the likely new administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), has unapologetically supported Medicare Advantage. Ensure the program continues to grow over the next four years and beyond.

Prediction for 2024: Startups will disappear. But they will be replaced with new ones.

True to my prediction: venture financing for the digital healthcare sector decreased in 2024. That doesn’t mean everyone should write off digital healthcare. The fundamental problem has long been the inability to meaningfully connect to the analog healthcare system. But no one should doubt that new startups with realistic valuations and a plan to fit seamlessly into the traditional healthcare system will emerge and succeed. That becomes even more likely as artificial intelligence enters the scene. It promises to solve some of the industry’s toughest and most persistent problems and could begin to impact patient care sooner than we expect, albeit on a small scale at first.

Prediction for 2024: DEI will face backlash.

Unfortunately, I hit the nail on the head with this. According to recent data, the demand for Chief Diversity Officers is increasing taken in 2024, which many people attribute to the backlash from conservative state lawmakers. Support for DEI initiatives is also unlikely to come from the federal government. A few days after the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) was announced, Vivek Ramaswamy decided posted on X“There is no room for DEI bloat in an efficient government. Time to DOGE it.”

However, stock boosters need not despair. Regardless of whether companies choose to hire diversity officers, many healthcare organizations continue to view healthcare equity as a worthwhile goal, and we can expect these efforts to bear fruit despite the headwinds they face at the government level.

Prediction for 2024: Physician morale will continue to suffer.

I’m happy to say that the number of physicians who say they are burned out has increased checked in 2024. Nevertheless, this number remains stubbornly high – and may have fallen due to the exodus from the profession we have seen following the COVID pandemic.

The fact is that to fully address the problem, we need a revolution in the management and leadership of most healthcare organizations. But too many organizations can get by just fine with business as usual, so they delay making fundamental and necessary changes to their strategies and operations even as their frontline workforce continues to suffer.

Prediction for 2024: Ozempic, Mounjaro and other GLP-1s will increase in popularity.

There is no doubt about it: the popularity of these drugs is increasing. Their presence has literally changed the way the medical profession views obesity as a health problem. In addition, these medications are being prescribed for a variety of new conditions. Last April, the F.D.A approved Wegovy for people with cardiovascular disease. In an age of misinformation, when an entire segment of American society has discredited the medical profession, we can expect to see confidence in and use of these medications continue to grow.

Forecast for 2024: better diagnostics and therapies. More questions about how to pay for it.

New diagnostic tools and medications seem to come online every day. We hear about them and celebrate their lifesaving prospects. Less is said about the costs of these breakthroughs. I believed that implementation of the Medicare drug negotiation provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act would lead to more intense conversations about costs. I can’t honestly say this came true. No one should despair anymore: diseases once considered death sentences are turning into chronic diseases, a fact we should always celebrate, even as many of us look for new ways to finance these life-saving treatments.

Forecast for 2024: turnover at the top

In 2024, longtime Mount Sinai Medical Center CEO Ken Davis will make way for ER Chief Brendan Carr. Humana’s Bruce Broussard will be succeeded by industry veteran James Rechtin. Amid mounting industry headwinds – regulatory pressure, declining reimbursement rates and persistent inflation – we will see many long-serving healthcare leaders resign from their positions. New approaches will be needed to guide organizations through a changing environment, and many long-serving leaders will not stick around to make the tough decisions needed to navigate the looming changes. Such attrition will provide organizations with significant opportunities to move in new directions, but will also create instability in what will ultimately be a year of healthcare transition. Look for many household industry names to wear new business cards in 2025.

2024 Prediction: At least one “big tech company” will shut down (or restart) its healthcare efforts.

Big tech is always nibbling at the edges of healthcare. For good reason. At almost 20% of GDP, healthcare is a potential growth vector. The year 2023 was the year of Amazon. It launched Amazon Clinic, completed the acquisition of One Medical and completed the closure of Amazon Care.

Meanwhile, other big tech companies continue to define their own meaningful healthcare strategies. Find at least one branded technology company announcing a major change in its strategy and/or personnel. Some critics are (fairly) slamming big tech for failing to contain misinformation and creating even greater distrust in healthcare. Look for select players in big tech – led by people like Google’s Karen DeSalvo and Michael Howell and YouTube’s Garth Graham – to continue developing solutions that improve the accuracy of health information.

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I would say that overall my ability to predict was not far off. For someone more practiced in the healing arts than the dark arts, I feel pretty good about my track record.

What about 2025? I’ll tell you in a year. Where did I put those tarot cards in the meantime?