Has Nottingham Forest worked out a watertight method to beat the ‘Big Six’ of the Premier League?
Tuesday’s 1-0 victory against Manchester United brought them to 18 points of a possible 30 in their counter-head encounters with the historical and financial giants of the Premier League so far this season.
Of the other 14 clubs of the division, only Brighton and Hove Albion can equal the success of Forest against Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur this season, and forest Forest have brought those points in an extremely strong position in the Race for Champions League.
But while Brighton often goes stylistic toe to toe with their more illustrious opponents, the way Bos has achieved their results is even more remarkable.
The side of Nuno Espirito Santo rarely dominates the ball – their average possession of 32 percent is the lowest of each team in these competitions. They also create relatively little – no side has a lower average XG in luminaires against the ‘Big Six’ – and they press less intensely than any other side in the division.
So how, despite the fact that she apparently lacks the characteristics of a successful modern side, did they do it? Let’s break it down.
Nuno celebrates with Anthony Elanga after the victory against Manchester United in midweek (Michael Steele/Getty Images)
Although Forest has made little in ‘Big Six’ meetings, they have been very effective in suffocating their opponents on the other side. Of all competitions with ‘Big Six’ teams this season, Forest’s competitions have the lowest average combined XG at only 2.3. In competitions such as these where there are opportunities for a premium, the opening goal is the decisive and forest has developed a talent for the first time, the opener scoring in 24 of their 30 league matches, more than any other side in 2024-25.
Their ability to limit opposition attacks stems from a combination of a compact form, direct approach and the speed of their transitions. The results are a record of just one goal that has so far been admitted this season in five home games against the ‘Big Six’, with only Chelsea.
Chance Creation From Fast Breaks is an important feature of many ‘Big Six’ teams five of the six rank in the top six for XG of counterattacks (Manchester City is the exception, with their more methodical structure). But forest in possession in possession and therefore less exposed than most teams are demonstrated by the fact that they have admitted the second lowest XG this season of quick breaks in the Premier League.
A big reason for this is the discipline of their midfield villains – usually Elliot Anderson and Nicolas Dominguez – who tend to hold their positions instead of making late runs in the box. Data from Footovision shows that the average distance between the midfield of Forest and the defense lines in these games is only 11.6 meters – the lowest of each team against ‘Big Six’.
This compactness also transfers to their structure outside of the possession, apart from here, Nuno Espirito Santo generally instructs its front to push high, to exert pressure and block passing lanes, while midfield remains deeper to offer coverage.
Below is a typical example against Manchester City, where the front four are busy disturbing the structure of their opponent, but there is a large space behind with midfield to stay back and offer extra protection. The distance between Forest’s attacking and midfield lines is the sixth highest in the competition, the proof of this defined split of roles: Forest’s attackers remain high, the rest of the team remains as compact as possible.
When City manages to play through the first press, Forest quickly retreats to a low block, so that only Talisman Chris Wood stays behind for the ball.
This sleek defensive form even frustrates the best sides, and they often resort to trying of low quality of distance. The image below shows where ‘Big Six’ teams shoot against forest compared to other opponents. Shots from outside the box are more common, especially in the left channel where the 13 percent figure is considerably higher than six percent elsewhere.
There were many left -sided attempts when Manchester United came to the city soil this week, with Alejandro Garnacho a repeated perpetrator.
The narrow structure of Forest often encourages switches, and here you can successfully find Garnacho with a Crossfield pass. But as the second slide shows, by the time Garnacho maneuvers himself in a shooting position, Forest has bodies in position that cuts off shooting angles, and the Argentinian wing player fires a idiosyncratic effort in the stands.
This defensive discipline is not only reserved for the large occasions – it is something that forest has improved across the board. The average distance of Schoten has increased every season, and the jump this campaign is particularly remarkable.
But the impressive points of Nottingham Forest did not come exclusively from a disciplined defensive attitude – they also needed their attackers to deliver on the other side.
Before Forest’s 1-0 home victory on Manchester City described Pep Guardiola Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga, Wood and Morgan Gibbs-White as ‘exceptional players’. That assessment turned out to be prophetic when Hudson-Odoi yielded a late winner for Forest.
Hudson-Odoi scores in March 2025 against Manchester City (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)
Each of the attacking quartet of Forest brings something different than the table, but their skills effectively complement each other to offer an essential creative lead – especially during the attacks of transitions, which have been a consistent source of goals against ‘Big Six’ – Population.
Although forest is often in the minority when they break because of their defensive priorities, they consistently exceed their weight thanks to the Balvooringsrendoning by Elanga and Hudson-Odoi, the creativity of Gibbs-White and Wood’s clinical finish.
This inconvenient bravery could be seen too much during the 1-0 victory of Forest in Anfield earlier in the Hun season first there since 1969. The winning goal began deep in their own half, where Forest owns Before Gibbs-White Elanga Koos Koos with a smart round in the right channel.
Elanga then rose forward and delivered a PinPoint Cross-Field Ball to Hudson-Odoi on the opposite flank, which cut inwards and curled a composed finish outside of Alisson.
Trademark Callum Hudson-Odoi 🤌 🤌 🤌 🤌
Our winning goal at Anfield 😍 pic.twitter.com/BFYZP75KBI
– Nottingham Forest (@nffc) September 14, 2024
The clinical strike of Hudson-Odoi came from a chance of a low percentage, and it would not fail to recognize the role of Fortuin in the season of Forest.
They have scored 50 goals from an expected goals of only 38th biggest over performance in the division. Although it consistently takes the lead, their quality speaks, as often as they also enable them to implement their game plan more effectively, which maintains that compact form instead of being forced to chase games.
Nevertheless, Forest has earned their part of happiness this season. Their striking versions against the most established parties of the competition have shown the qualities that justify their elevated position in the table.
The Nuno team may not play as a modern superclub – but when they are confronted against teams, they have consistently found a way to thrive.
(Top photo: David Rogers/Getty images)