The monetary policy of the Philippines Policy may need to be adjusted to integrate increasingly drastic supply shocks, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said.
“Looking ahead, monetary policy may need to adjust to more frequent and severe supply-side shocks,” the IMF said in its latest Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation.
“Inflation dynamics in the Philippines have been characterized in recent years by a stronger influence of supply factors over demand factors, partly due to the Philippines’ high dependence on fuel and food imports, limited use of price controls and exposure to adverse climate events. .”
The IMF said the “frequency, severity and persistence” of severe supply shocks could increase in the future due to climate change and increasing geo-economic fragmentation.
According to the latest edition of the World Risk Index, the Philippines has been the riskiest country in the world for sixteen years in a row.
The country is typically hit by various storms and other extreme weather events throughout the year, causing billions of pesos in agricultural and infrastructure damage.
“The BSP (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) will have to be careful in its ‘screening’ to ensure that second-round effects do not lead to a de-anchoring of inflation expectations,” the IMF said.
Inflation has soared since 2022 due to a spike in global commodity prices and supply chain disruptions. Philippine annual inflation averaged 5.8% in 2022 and 6% in 2023.
FOREX INTERVENTION?
The IMF said the exchange rate could act as a “shock absorber” while foreign exchange intervention (FXI) could be appropriate in certain circumstances.
“Shifting expectations regarding future US policy rates have increased the peso’s volatility. The BSP has rightly focused on domestic price stability, allowing the exchange rate to play its role as a shock absorber, and must continue to do so,” it added.
So far this year, the peso has sunk to the P59 per dollar level three times. The BSP has said it is keeping a close eye on the peso and has been slightly more active than normal in the markets.
“Given the shallow currency markets in the Philippines – the most relevant IPF (Integrated Policy Framework) friction – and the non-linear impact of exchange rate movements on inflation expectations, FXI can play a role in mitigating the risks associated with abrupt exchange rate movements .”
“Nevertheless, the use of FXI should only be temporary and not a substitute for justified macroeconomic policy adjustments.”
The BSP has said it is only intervening to curb speculation and keep markets orderly.
“Going forward, as the BSP considers the optimal response to periods of stress and high uncovered interest rate parity premia, it should remain cognizant of the tradeoffs between using FXI and deepening the domestic foreign exchange market.”
Meanwhile, the IMF also said it will be crucial to “ensure coordination between different parts of the BSP’s toolkit.”
“While overall holdings have decreased, the BSP retains a substantial portfolio of government bonds acquired as part of the COVID-19 response. It has enabled the BSP to move to a variable rate/variable reverse repurchase (RRP) framework where the target RRP rate is the policy rate.”
“Going forward, the BSP could usefully communicate a strategy for the size of its balance sheet in normal times… to provide greater certainty to market participants.”
It cited the central bank’s recent move to cut reserve requirements and said this will lead to a welcome drop in financial intermediation costs and better alignment of reserve requirements with regional peers.
“Changes in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) should be factored into the overall monetary policy stance and coordinated with any changes in the size of the BSP balance sheet,” the IMF said.
From October this year, the BSP reduced the RRR for universal and commercial banks and non-bank financial institutions with quasi-banking functions by 250 basis points from 9.5% to 7%.
The IMF also noted the move to reactivate the interest rate swap (IRS) market and establish a benchmark yield curve to “further develop the Philippines’ fixed income and money markets and improve monetary policy transmission.”
“The authorities’ recent initiative to create an improved peso IRS market based on the RRP will help companies and banks hedge local interest rate risk.”
Last month, the central bank launched the peso IRS market, following the publication of the updated International Swaps and Derivatives Association. This is part of its efforts to deepen capital markets.
“The fragmentation of the yield curve at the short end, with government bond yields well below BSP bond yields, remains an obstacle to accurate working capital valuation, which also hinders the development of the IRS and derivatives markets,” it said IMF.
“Coordinated efforts by both the Bureau of the Treasury (for example, by increasing issuance with maturities of less than 365 days) and the BSP (for example, by further expanding access to non-banks and ensuring that BSP notes are considered collateral can be used) are essential to address yields. fragmentation of the curve and an improvement in the transmission of monetary policy.” — Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson