Improving protection through early response, rapid tracking and impact monitoring

Scientific experts from thirteen Western European countries recently summarized the key lessons learned from the handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Two important findings have emerged. First, death rates were lower in countries that took action early. Second, the need for a surveillance system that can quickly track the spread of a virus in the community and its impact on hospitals was identified.

In September 2023, the Institut Pasteur invited experts involved in managing the COVID-19 crisis in 13 Western European countries to a meeting in Paris. The brief was to assess the health crisis and identify lessons that can be learned in preparation for future health crises resulting from pandemics. These discussions culminated in a paper summarizing the key lessons learned recently published in BMC Global and Public Health.

The experts compared excess mortality, standardized for age and sex, by country over a period from January 2020 to June 2022. The cumulative excess mortality observed during this period ranged from 0.5 to 1 death per 1,000 inhabitants in Scandinavian countries and Ireland up to 2.7 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants. residents in Italy. In France, the rate was 1.5 per 1,000 inhabitants, putting the country on par with Switzerland and Germany.

The main finding was that countries that took measures early, while hospitals still had capacity, had the lowest excess mortality rates and also coped best economically.

These findings are important to keep in mind for further pandemics and highlight the importance of a surveillance system that can quickly monitor the spread of a virus in the community and its impact on hospitals. By taking early action, it is also possible to tailor the response to a crisis so that it remains proportionate to the threat to public health.

In one previous projectSimon Cauchemez and his team estimate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as lockdowns and curfews), vaccination, weather and variants on the transmission of COVID-19 in France. A statistical model applied to hospital data from 92 French departments between March 2020 and May 2021 revealed:

• Lockdowns and curfews reduced transmission by 73% and 34% respectively;
• Vaccination had a beneficial effect, while the emergence of new variants and winter weather increased transmission