By means of Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter
HEADLINE INFLATION has likely slowed to a near four-year low in September, amid falling rice and fuel prices, giving the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) There is room to cut interest rates further, analysts said.
A Business world a survey of 15 analysts conducted last week yielded an average estimate of 2.5% for September’s consumer price index (CPI).
If realized, SeptemberFlation would be significantly slower than 3.3% in August and 6.1% in the same month a year ago.
This would also be the lowest monthly print in almost four years or since the 2.3% clip in October 2020.
The Philippine Statistics Authority is expected to release September inflation data on Friday (October 4). The BSP has not yet released its monthly inflation forecast.
The easing in rice prices likely caused the CPI to fall this month, analysts said.
“Price pressure will ease for rice, which makes up a significant part of the heavily loaded food basket. Prices for this staple soared in 2023 when India banned exports of non-basmati milled rice,” Sarah Tan, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in an email.
Rice in itFInflation fell from 20.9% in July to 14.7% in August. Rice typically accounts for almost half of total incomeFlat.
The Ministry of Agriculture said earlier this month that they plan to bring in riceFto single digit levels.
‘The reduction of the tariffFf on imported rice, for which eFwill take place at the end of June and will last until the end of the year, which will help capture the marketFfor this basic product,” Ms Tan added.
In June, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order No. 62, cutting tariffsFfs on rice imports to 15%, from 35% until 2028.
“The base effects of food prices will remain quite favorable, following last year’s rise in rice prices. This should draw food inFInflation has fallen quite sharply, even though there is no material change from month to month,” said Miguel Chanco, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Economist Alvin Joseph A. Arogo of the Philippine National Bank said the stable index for food and non-alcoholic beverages in August also “provides good results.”Fprotect against the potential negative impact of current and upcoming typhoons on overall food prices.”
Lower fuel prices may have led to a slower SeptemberFling, analysts added.
“The disinflation could largely come from the broad food and transport CPI. We especially expect declines in rice prices and lower gasoline and diesel prices due to declining global prices,” said Ruben Carlo O. Asuncion, chief economist of Union Bank of the Philippines, Inc. in an email.
In September, adjustments to pump prices amounted to a net decrease of P0.95 per liter for gasoline, P2.10 for diesel and P2.35 for kerosene.
“Retail fuel prices fell by as much as 7% month over month due to lower global oil prices and a stronger peso against the US dollar,” said Aris D. Dacanay, economist for ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) at HSBC Global. Research, said.
“Transport deflation should also deepen, pushing headline inflation down further, thanks to the rollover of domestic pump prices, which reflect weakness in global oil prices,” Mr Chanco added.
“(Inflation) was probably within the target range as eFdue to the easing of supply chain restrictions, the slowdown in oil prices and theFfew agricultural imports. However, it is still threatened by natural disasters that could disrupt food supplies,” said Oikonomia Advisory & Research, Inc.
MORE ROOM FOR RATE REDUCTIONS
The expected downward trend inFIn the coming months, the BSP will have more room to continue its policy easing cycle, analysts said.
“In the coming months it will be possibleFwill remain at a level of 3% for the rest of 2024, or well within the BSPFThe 2-4% target range could justify a further cut in the BSP rate, which would match any future Fed rate cuts between 2024 and 2026,” said Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort.
“With CPI inflation remaining on a downward path and the US Fed having already started its austerity cycle, the BSP has ample room to further remove the restrictiveness of its monetary policy,” said Euben Paracuelles, chief ASEAN economist from Nomura Global Markets Research. “We still expect the BSP to cut by 25 basis points at the October and December meetings, and by 75 basis points at the first three meetings in 2025, bringing the policy rate to 5%.”
BSP Governor Eli M. Remolona Jr. indicated last week that the central bank could implement a 25 bp interest rate cut each during the remaining two meetings.
The Monetary Board cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points in August, bringing the policy rate to 6.25%, down from a 17-year high of 6.5%.
The next policy review will take place on October 17, while the last meeting of the year is scheduled for December 19.
Meanwhile, the Fed kicked off its easing cycle this month with a massive 50 bp cut, bringing its target rate to a range of 4.75-5%.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets have fully priced in a cut of at least 25 basis points at the Fed’s November meeting, Reuters reported.
“A cooling effectFlation print for September will convince the BSP that inFAfter the peak in July, the price has returned to the target for good. Combined with the recent 50bp cut by the US Federal Reserve, this increases the chances of a rate cut in the Philippines in October,” said Ms Tan of Moody’s Analytics.
“The start of the monetary policy easing cycle in the US indeed gives the BSP room to further ease its monetary policy. The BSP could make two cuts of 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, spread over the two meetings in October and December,” Ms Tan added.
Mr Chanco of Pantheon Macroeconomics said that if there is no “major shock” until the next inflation release, the Monetary Board could make another 25 basis point cut at its October meeting.
“However, potential risks from oil and typhoons may keep the BSP cautious about rate cuts. The central bank will likely opt for a gradual approach, with cuts of 25 basis points in October and December,” Security Bank Corp. Chief Economist Robert Dan J. Roces added. to.
Zamros Bin DzulkaFLi, an economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group, also expects the BSP to cut rates by a total of 75 basis points this year, “supported by the recent ‘aggressive’ 50 basis point rate cut by the US Fed.”