Jorgen Strand Larsen’s seventh-minute goal to put Wolverhampton Wanderers ahead on Sunday may have surprised many, but few expected the score to end there. After all, winless Wolves had to face undefeated reigning champions Manchester City, whose dominance came with a sense of inevitability that things will turn in their favor – and to some extent they did.
Josko Gvardiol’s brilliant equalizer in the 33rd minute meant City had around an hour to find a match winner and with almost 80% of the ball, more than twenty shots and a star-studded squad the chances were undoubtedly in the advantage. That goal ultimately came thanks to a stoppage time winner from John Stones, the inevitable result achieved technically. Yet the excellence that has defined them for almost a decade was nowhere to be seen at the Molineux Stadium. Instead, Pep Guardiola’s side looked downright mediocre for the better part of an hour before the winner arrived.
City may have outscored Wolves 22-3, putting seven shots on target to their opponents’ two, but their attacking prowess was nowhere to be seen on Sunday. For all their work, they managed just 1.6 expected goals, an unimpressive result compared to the 0.81 expected goals Wolves scored with far fewer goal attempts. It’s also in line with the performance they strung together at Wolves – they seemed to run out of ideas in the middle of the park, passing the ball around aimlessly and then taking shots from distance that were never destined to do much damage.
Their inability to create meaningful goal scoring opportunities is not an isolated problem either. They lost the expected goals battle in their last two Premier League matches, a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United and a 3-2 win over Fulham. The margin of defeat in that statistical category was also noticeable on both occasions, with Newcastle generating 1.57 xG from 11 shots, better than the 0.91 xG that City posted from 16 shots, while Fulham had 2.6 xG from 11 shots and City 1 .57 xG from 20 shots. attempts at goal.
Although City still sit second in the league in expected goals, recent weeks reflect a worrying downward trend after losing star midfielder Rodri to an ACL injury last month. Guardiola has largely relied on Mateo Kovacic in his absence, teaming up with Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva in midfield on Sunday. While the trio were not solely responsible for City’s uninspiring performance at Wolves, they did little to spark an energetic attacking response after Strand Larsen’s early goal. They, like their teammates, have provided the latest reminder that the hole left by the peerless Rodri will be incredibly difficult to fill.
City’s problems may be bigger than Rodri’s. The games against Newcastle and Fulham in particular revealed a number of defensive vulnerabilities, which also saw them concede nine goals in eight league games. While they still score in big numbers, allowing their offense to overcome some of their defensive weaknesses, the margins of their victories are smaller. If this pattern continues, the sense of inevitability that was part of City’s title-winning package during Guardiola’s time in charge will slowly disappear.
Maybe they still have enough to stay in the title race; After all, they still have one of the best squads in Europe and an elite manager with a reputation for getting himself out of trouble with tactical genius. However, the version of City that Guardiola and outgoing football director Txiki Begiristain built is undoubtedly on its last legs. Players like Ederson, Rodri, Kovacic, Gundogan, Silva, Kevin de Bruyne, Kyle Walker, Manuel Akanji and more are already in their 30s or have already reached that milestone, forcing Begiristain’s successor to lead a massive rebuild – with or without Guardiola.
With Arsenal dealing with their own problems and Liverpool continuing a strong start under Arne Slot, another fascinating Premier League title battle could emerge in short order. The long term, however, poses even bigger questions for City, who look as if they are finally running out of gas and will have to somehow find a way to reinvent themselves as a series of existential crises loom over one of the England’s most dominant teams.