NASA increases the chance of asteroid striking, to probable 5 coins wins

For the first time, astronomers saw the asteroid on the way to the earth in December and quickly placed them at the top of the current risk frame.

Although physicists initially predicted that the chance of a collision would decrease with further research, the chance has only increased.

The opportunities are now about the same as if someone would win a coin throw five times in a row.

Now that telescopes worldwide are concentrating on the fast -moving rock, more accurate data has been included to predict the process.

Early estimates suggested a chance of 1 in 83, but the chance has since deteriorated to 1-on-67, 1-in-53, 1-in-43, 1-in-38, and are now on 1-in – 32.

Hugh Lewis, from the University of Southampton, said: “Only because it went up last week does not mean that it will continue to do that.”

Unfortunately, the astronomers’ window is to study that the asteroid is shrinking – as is expected to move behind the sun in just two months.

Lewis added: “All observations that we can make between now and when it is out of sight, will of course help us refine the job and make better predictions.

“That does not necessarily mean that it will fall before April. It could stay up, but eventually misses us.”

The asteroid will pass near the earth in four years, but not close enough to cause concern – scientists give it a different opportunity to study it.

It will make a pass in about eight years, possibly clashing against the planet on December 22, 2032.

Researchers also assess space data from the past to find out more about YR4, where worldwide space agencies are already performing this work.

The James Webb Space Telescope, launched in 2021, is also expected to collect crucial data about the asteroid while turning the sun.

Lewis noted: “(the James Webb observations) will help us determine what we should do about it, because if it is a stony asteroid, it is very different from a large part of the asteroid of iron metal.

“The masses make a huge difference in terms of the energy and whether the atmosphere has an effect on it.”

If the asteroid is metal kingdom, it is less likely that it separates when entering the atmosphere.

With a sizes between 40 and 90 meters wide, a collision could release an energy that is equivalent to nearly eight billion kilograms of TNT value ear a 1.2 miles wide crater.

The impact alone would be powerful enough to destroy an entire city, with potential impact zones that currently span several densely populated areas, such as Bogotá, Mumbai and Lagos.

Bolin also said that observing the asteroid was a challenge because of his weakness, and the 70% enlightenment of the moon – which created a background lighting effect – also made it harder to see.