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Houston Texans sensation CJ Stroud had a chance to cement himself in the NFL’s elite class of quarterbacks this season.
The No. 2 pick in the 2023 draft was an easy choice for Offensive Rookie of the Year. During training camp, The Athletics asked coaches and executives which three quarterbacks they would take to start a franchise from scratch, with Stroud appearing on 16 of the 27 ballots. Only Patrick Mahomes received more votes.
Instead, Stroud’s expected jump has been postponed. He hasn’t been bad this season, but his performances have dropped, and so has his position in this ranking. This is the first time Stroud has been outside the top 10. One executive said Stroud “didn’t play anywhere near (as well) as he did last year” when he was so dominant that he dramatically accelerated the Texans’ rebuild by leading them. to their first AFC South title in four years.
Athletic’s Week 16 QB Rankings
Two statistics stand out. First, Stroud led the NFL in 2023 with 273.9 passing yards per game, but this season that has dropped to 232.0, which ranks him 17th. He also led the league as a rookie in throwing interceptions on 1 percent of his passes, but that has doubled to 2 percent this season (16th in the NFL).
“I don’t expect CJ to be a guy who is in a slump and will continue to struggle,” a second director said. “I think he’ll figure it out, and they’ll figure it out as a team. They have enough weapons. The way they played the ball will take the pressure off him.”
Stroud’s issues stem from protection issues on the offensive line. He’s already had more sacks this season than he did as a rookie (45 to 38), and he’s been sacked on nearly 9 percent of his dropbacks, up from about 2 percent.
There is no escape @zachsieler. 😈 #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/4Fd73A1k3f
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) December 15, 2024
“It gives him the creeps,” said the second director. “He’s been getting hit all year. If CJ is under pressure, the game will decline. If you don’t feel comfortable and don’t trust the environment, that’s not surprising as a young quarterback. I don’t think he’s gone backwards. I think he’s just sped up with the progression and the throws, and that hurts the accuracy.”
The hits can be impossible to overcome for even the best quarterbacks, let alone the younger signal callers who are still developing. When the Texans lost three of four to the Lions, Jets, Colts (win) and Packers earlier this season, Stroud collected 18 sacks and was hit another 17 times.
It doesn’t help that top receiver Nico Collins missed five games with a hamstring injury, star wideout Stefon Diggs tore his ACL in Week 8 and running back Joe Mixon missed three early games with a high ankle sprain.
So no, Stroud hasn’t dazzled as much as he did as a rookie, but it’s also understandable. Add to that the defensive adjustments young quarterbacks face, the lack of pass protection and the injuries surrounding Stroud, and it’s been enough to shake his usually steady composure.
“People in the scouting community were interested to see how this offense and the player would adapt in Year 2, when teams had a year to study, adapt and learn what he does well and what he struggles with” , said a third director. “Now it’s up to the attacking staff and the player to adapt as they can.”
It’s also fair to point out that Stroud isn’t the first quarterback to deal with protection and injury issues. But at this stage of his career, that’s a common confluence of factors that results in temporary quarterback regression.
“It’s learning to deal with that,” said the second director.
All the while, the Texans still clinched the AFC South division title with three games to play. They beat the Bills in Week 4 and lost to the Packers and Lions by a combined five points, so they’re not far off. Their next two games, against the Chiefs and Ravens, could change the entire perception surrounding the Texans’ playoff chances.
No matter how the rest of the season plays out, no coach or manager will be questioned The Athletics this season believes Stroud’s rookie year was a fluke. This season is seen as growing pains for a quarterback who could still develop into one of the league’s best players.
GO DEEPER
NFL Playoff Photo After Week 15: Eagles, Vikings join Lions atop NFC; Rams lead NFC West
Collision course
Jared Goff has been excellent all season, but the Lions QB did something in Sunday’s loss to the Bills that should provide optimism during a frustrating stretch in Detroit.
Earlier this year, executives wanted to see how Goff would perform when the Lions weren’t in control of the game – obvious pass situations in a deficit where he had to throw one ball after another with an upper-echelon quarterback on the sideline opponent.
GO DEEPER
Lions got a reality check against Bills. How they respond will determine how far they can go
Suffice to say, Goff didn’t blink, despite trailing by several scores for most of the Lions’ 48-42 rout. And given the state of the Lions’ injury-ravaged defense and the unenviable task of countering another superhuman performance from Josh Allen, there was no room for error after Detroit’s stagnant start.
Goff finished 38 of 59 on Sunday, passing for 494 yards and five touchdowns. He led four consecutive TD drives to close the game and nearly helped the Lions pull off a miraculous comeback despite a rare Amon-Ra St. Brown lost fumble and a missed field goal by Jake Bates.
GOFF TO AMON-RA. 66-YARD TD.
Not in Detroit.
📺: #BUFvsDET on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/uHEKLWabzy—NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
Goff proved he can post points quickly when necessary. And with how many injuries the Lions have suffered, that will probably be necessary.
Speaking of which, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts also silenced some doubters, internal or otherwise, with a brilliant performance in a 27-13 win against the Steelers. He was 25 of 32 for 290 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 45 yards and a score, and Hurts did it while running back Saquon Barkley was largely limited.
The Lions and Eagles have been the NFC’s top two contenders since the playoff picture began to take shape, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them go head-to-head with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. And with both quarterbacks answering crucial questions against quality opponents, such a matchup could live up to the hype.
Choose 2
Two random thoughts. First, Packers wideout Romeo Doubs did indeed make a great catch during his game-changing 22-yard touchdown against the Seahawks, but let’s not lose sight of Jordan Love’s throw. The Packers QB was on the 32-yard line when he made the throw to Doubs, who was on the 10-yard line and struggled through tight coverage while winding up the QB. Love picked a perfect spot and couldn’t have thrown it better.
WHAT AN INCREDIBLE CATCH!#ProBowlVote + #RomeoDoubs pic.twitter.com/P8Zu0eEgoD
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 16, 2024
Second, and this may sound strange after a 12-6 rock battle in the rain, but Rams QB Matthew Stafford has been playing at a very high level for most of the last month. His performance two weeks ago against the Bills was as good as it gets when it comes to making quality throws after high-quality throws. The Rams are a threat if they reach the playoffs, and Stafford’s play is one of the biggest reasons.
Bloody Sunday
It was a tough week to play quarterback. Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain; Geno Smith left with a knee injury; and Justin Herbert aggravated his ankle injury.
Additionally, Jameis Winston, Jake Haener and Will Levis were benched, while Tommy DeVito suffered a concussion.
We kept Winston and Levis on the rankings while the Browns and Titans assessed their situations. Haener was replaced in the rankings by Spencer Rattler, as we assume he will continue to watch after his impressive second half against the Commanders.
The fragility of the league’s backup/edge starter dynamic shows that only six teams have taken the 32nd QB in 16 weeks this season: the Dolphins (five times), Giants (four), Raiders (two), Titans (twice), Saints (two) and Packers (one). And in retrospect, if there was a way to predict how well Malik Willis would have played for the Packers, they wouldn’t be on this list.
Failed: Drew Lock (heel injury), No. 31 last week; Haener (on bench), No. 32 last week.
(Photo by CJ Stroud: Luke Hales/Getty Images)