Nathaniel Lowe is in the spotlight today as Opening Day approaches. The first baseman was just the subject of a blockbuster trade after spending the 2024 season with the defending champions, though they missed the postseason.
Until opening day, which is still 94 days away, Sportskeeda will be counting down featured players, examining what they’ve done in the past and making some predictions on how they’ll do in 2025. Lowe comes in as the next player counting down.
Lowe was with the Texas Rangers and despite their overall team issues, he had a very solid year. He had 2.8 fWAR and a 121 wRC+ in 140 games. He hit .265 with a very solid .762 OPS.
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Lowe won’t be a free agent until after the 2026 season, but the Rangers opted to move him to the Washington Nationals. The Nats were expected to be aggressive in pursuing a first baseman on the open market, but instead they turned this trade around. The Rangers received left-hander Robert Garcia in return.
Predicting Nathaniel Lowe’s first year at Nationals
Nathaniel Lowe ends up at the Washington Nationals, who are slowly but surely building a selection of young, promising players. Lowe was with the Texas Rangers after his first two seasons (2020 and 2021) with the Tampa Bay Rays.
He only hit 16 home runs last season, and that number would have been 15 in the Nationals, so don’t expect the park to produce an increase in production. In terms of park factor, Globe Life Field and Nationals Park are somewhat hitter-friendly, ranking 10th and 11th respectively among all MLB parks.
Fangraphs expects a slight decrease in production. They project a 114 wRC+, .258 batting average and .347 on-base percentage. The Nationals’ lineup doesn’t necessarily offer more protection than the Rangers, so the team isn’t likely to help Lowe improve.
Fangraphs expects slightly better power figures. They project two more home runs and a slugging percentage of .411 compared to .401 in 2024. However, this only leads to a projected fWAR of 1.9, down from 2024.
Our prediction: Lowe provides some pop with 19 home runs and will fit in well with his new lineup. He’s hitting .255 with an on-base percentage of .356, adding a 119 wRC+ and solid defense for a 2.5 fWAR season.
Edited by Nadim El Kak