By means of Adrian H. Halili And Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporters
THE EXPECTED La Niña The weather pattern is expected to pick up in the Philippine Palace (unwhite rice) production for the rest of the year, despite the risk of heavy rain and intense Fflood, anLyst said.
In a report, Fitch Solutions’ BMI says the impact of La Niña on rice production in Southeast Asia “will be determined by the precise timing of the onset of La Niña conditions (and the extent to which it overlaps with critical stages of crop development) ). ) as well as the final duraand the severity of the event itself.”
“The likelihood that a La Niña event will pose headwinds to regional rice production will increase with both the duration and severity of the event,” it added.
The latest data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) shows that there is a 66% chance of La Niña occurring from September to November.remain until the first quarter.
BMI said the impact of La Niña-related above-average rainfall on agriculture in Southeast Asia would depend on the severity of the weather conditions.
Apart from heavy rainfall and Fflooding, BMI said there is also the risk of rain-induced flooding.
PAGASA previously said the La Niña increases the risk of tropical cyclones, low pressure areas and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and intensifiesFis the southwest monsoon.
Former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said he expects a decline in annual palay production this year due to La Niña.
“The biggest problem is the impact of La Niña, linked to the late distribution of agricultural inputs by the national government. There will be a drop in production from last year’s 20 million tons,” he said in a text message.
In 2023, palay production reached 20.06 million tons.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) earlier lowered its production estimate to 20.1 million tonnes for 2024, from 20.44 million tonnes previously.
Fermin D. Adriano, a former deputy minister of agriculture, said in a Viber message that production this year would likely fall to between 19.3 and 19.5 million tons.
“With El Niño and then recently Fflooding in the rice growing areas of Central Luzon, I don’t know if DA will achieve a 1% to 2% growth rate (for agricultural production),” Mr. Adriano said in a Viber message.
The DA had set a 1-2% growth target for agricultural production this year, taking into account the impact of El Niño and La Niña weather conditions.
“The possibility of a production increase before 2024 is bleak given the 500,000 (MT) drop in palay harvests in the Ffirst semester, plus the potential impact of La Niña on standing crops in the coming months,” Raul Q. Montemayor, national manager of the Federation of Free Farmers, said in a Viber message.
Mr Montemayor said the expected decline in palay production could be attributed to delayed planting by rice farmers. This would push the Palay harvest back to the fourth quarter, he added.
PAGASA has so far recorded nine tropical cyclones entering the Philippine area of responsibility this year.
According to the DA, damage to farms due to weather disruptions between January and September 4 was estimated at $23.19 billion. This includes the effects of El Niño, shearline, southwest monsoon, Typhoon Aghon, Typhoon Carina and Severe Tropical Depression Enteng.
The estimated volume loss for rice was 373,000 tons over the nine-month period. The DA expects an average of 500,000 tons to 600,000 tons of rice losses annually.
“The damage reports don’t sound that bad, I won’t be surprised if we reach 20 million tons (this year),” Roehlano M. Briones, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said in a Viber message. .
Jayson H. Cainglet, executive director of Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura (SINAG), said the country’s rice supply would remain sufficient given the increase in rice imports.
“The farmers damaged by Habagat (southwest monsoon) and heavy rain just need immediate help to replant,” he said in a Viber message.
“What we are concerned about is the big drop in the price of palay during these lean months – an indication that there is a lot of rice in the market, and this would fall further once the harvest season starts,” Mr Cainglet added .
Philippine rice imports totaled 3.09 million tons as of September 19, data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed.
Meanwhile, BMI said above-average rainfall in the region could be beneficialFical or harmful to rice production, according to BMI.
The La Niña event increases the risk of excessive rainfall, which threatens rice cultivation, BMI said.
“Land subject to drought or extended periods of below-average rainfall may also be at greater risk of forest fires during the Southeast Asian period. Fire season. Conversely, low soil moisture levels that have accumulated during the El Niño period may be vulnerable to flooding in the event of intense rainfall,” the report said.
PAGASA, in its latest agricultural weather advisory, also called on farmers to ‘prepare for wetter conditions’.
“Wet weather promotes the development of mold and can cause damage to stored agricultural products and reduce the quality, viability and market price of the grains. Therefore, it is advised to keep sheds and crop storage areas in good, dry and well-ventilated condition,” the state weather service said.
BMI also noted that many agricultural producers in Southeast Asia continue to feel the impact of El Niño due to “low soil moisture levels and depleted irrigation water reservoirs.”
“In addition, several areas in Southeast Asia remained under drought as of July 2024, including parts of Cambodia, Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.”
The latest PAGASA bulletin showed that four provinces in Luzon, twelve provinces in the Visayas and ten provinces in Mindanao were experiencing meteorological drought; Seventeen provinces in Mindanao experienced a dry spell, and six provinces in Luzon experienced dry conditions.
However, BMI data also showed that the impact of La Niña on rice production “tends to be weaker” than that of El Niño.
“We FInd. that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events pose a downside risk to rice production in Southeast Asia, but El Niño events tend to have a more significant risk.Fhave a greater impact on observed rice yield anomalies than La Niña events,” the report said.
“Additionally, we find that the relationship between La Niña events and regional rice production is not one-sided, with weak events supporting production levels and strong events creating headwinds to production.”
Certain countries in the region are also more vulnerable to La Niña than others, it added.