By means of Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, Reporter
The Philippines’ credit rating could be upgraded if the economy grows faster than expected, S&P Global Ratings said.
“For us, it is positive that the Philippines’ ratings could be upgraded if the economic recovery is even faster than what we currently expect and if the government achieves even faster fiscal consolidation,” YeeFarn Phua, managing director of S&P Global Ratings, said in a statement webinar. on Tuesday.
The Philippines is currently rated ‘BBB+’ with a ‘stable’ view from the debt watcher.
“The outlook for sovereign ratings remains stable. In principle, this stable outlook reflects our expectation that the economy will continue to grow healthily,” said Mr Phua.
The rating agency expects Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) growth to average 5.8% this year and 6.1% in 2025. These are both below the government’s growth targets of 6-7% and 6.0% respectively. 5-7.5% for this year and next year.
In the second quarter of the year, Philippine GDP grew 6.3%, the fastest since 6.4% in the first quarter of 2023. This brought first-half growth to 6%.
Mr Phua said the outlook is also “balanced by the fact that we believe fiscal performance will also improve over the next 24 months.”
The budget deficit of the National Government (NG) increased by 7.2% to 642.8 billion euros in the January-July period, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Finance.
Mr. Phua too Flagged behind potential risks, such as an economic slowdown, that could hinder a credit upgrade for the Philippines.
“On the other hand, we believe that if the economic recovery were to weaken, causing long-term growth rates to be below those of peer countries, this would also lead to a related weakening of public finances. Ffinancial and debt positions,” he said.
He also noted risks to external institutions, such as the current accountFicit.
“If we see the current account deficit becoming persistently large, this will actually lead to a structural weakening of the Philippines’ external balance sheet. And we think this could put downward pressure on the ratings.”
In the second quarter, the current account deficit was $5.1 billion, accounting for 4.6% of GDP. The BSP projects a current account deficit of $4.7 billion by 2024, equivalent to 1% of GDP.
Meanwhile, Mr. Phua noted that S&P Global’s lower-than-expected growth outlook for the Philippines is due to still high interest rates.
“So far, the BSP has only cut once. We therefore expect that the mowing phase will take place gradually in the coming years. And that is why monetary policy will remain tighter than normal for a while,” he said.
Last month, the Monetary Board cut rates by 25 basis points (bps), bringing the policy rate to 6.25% from a 17-year high of 6.5%. This was the first time the central bank cut interest rates since November 2020.
Previously, the central bank raised borrowing costs by a total of 450 basis points between May 2022 and October 2023 to curb inflation.
“At the same time, we are also seeing slower than normal momentum in consumption and investment,” Mr Phua said.
“We think this could take some time, as central bank moves often take longer and with variable lags before they can start to impact the real economy.”