(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve policymakers’ appetite for another big rate cut in November could become more visible next week when Jerome Powell addresses economists and the government releases new employment figures.
Most read from Bloomberg
The Fed chairman will discuss the U.S. economic outlook Monday at a conference of the National Association for Business Economics. By the end of the week, the September jobs report is expected to show a healthy but subdued labor market.
Payrolls in the world’s largest economy are expected to rise by 146,000, based on the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. That compares with the increase in August and would put three-month average job growth near its weakest point since mid-2019.
The unemployment rate likely remained at 4.2%, while the average hourly wage is expected to have increased by 3.8% from a year earlier.
The recent labor unrest suggests that Friday’s jobs report may be the last clean reading of the U.S. labor market before Fed policymakers meet in early November. Boeing Co. factory workers quit their jobs in mid-September, and dockworkers on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are threatening to strike starting Oct. 1.
In addition to the tough monthly payroll report, job postings on Tuesday are expected to show August vacancies close to the lowest levels since early 2021. Economists will also focus on layoff rates and layoffs to gauge the extent of the slowdown in the labor market. demand for labor.
What Bloomberg Economics says:
“We expect a strong headline for nonfarm payrolls in September, which could even revive talk of ‘no landing’ for the US economy. But we think the headline number will overstate the strength of the labor market, partly because of overestimations associated with the BLS’ birth-death model, and partly because of temporary seasonal effects.”
—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou and Chris G. Collins, economists. For a full analysis, click here
Industry surveys will also help shed light on private sector hiring. The Institute for Supply Management will release its September manufacturing survey on Tuesday and the services index two days later – both including measures of employment.
In Canada, home sales data for some of the country’s biggest cities – Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver – will provide a picture of how the real estate market is faring after a series of interest rate cuts by the central bank.
Elsewhere, data expected to show slowing global inflation – from the eurozone to Turkey and South Korea – and business surveys in China are among the highlights.
Click here for what happened last week, and below is our summary of what’s going to happen in the global economy.
Asia
China kicks things off on Monday with a slew of purchasing manager indexes, a week after authorities launched an unusually broad set of stimulus measures that sent stock prices soaring.
The official manufacturing PMI could tick higher but still remain contracting, and the Caixin gauges remain steady just above the boom-or-bust line.
A day later, manufacturing PMI figures for Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines follow.
In Japan, Shigeru Ishiba is expected to be appointed prime minister in a parliamentary vote on Tuesday.
The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey is likely to show that business sentiment among large companies remained optimistic in the third quarter, while small manufacturers remained slightly pessimistic. Companies are seen revising their investment plans slightly higher.
Inflation in South Korea is expected to cool by September, giving the central bank added incentive to consider a rate cut in October, while price growth in Pakistan may have slowed to its slowest pace since early 2021 .
Trade data will come from Australia, Sri Lanka and South Korea, and Vietnam will publish third-quarter gross domestic product and September inflation next weekend.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
Eurozone data will be the focus. With inflation in France and Spain below the European Central Bank’s 2% target, reports from Germany and Italy on Monday, followed by the overall result for the region on Tuesday, will be closely watched.
With traders now pricing in a rate cut at the ECB meeting in October, and economists starting to shift their forecasts to predict the same, the data will be crucial evidence for policy makers who were previously leaning towards December for their next move.
Meanwhile, industrial production figures from France and Spain will provide a glimpse of how weak production was during the quarter that was about to end.
The week will feature a host of ECB appearances, starting on Monday with President Christine Lagarde’s testimony before the European Parliament and followed the next day by a conference in Frankfurt organized by the central bank.
Monday will be the last day on the job for Thomas Jordan, president of the Swiss National Bank, who just oversaw a rate cut and signaled more to come. His deputy, Martin Schlegel, will succeed him, and the first inflation data will be released under his watch on Thursday.
In Sweden, the minutes of the Riksbank meeting on Tuesday, September 24, will provide further insight into why policymakers there decided to cut rates last week and open the door to a faster pace of easing in the coming months.
Britain has a relatively quiet week ahead, highlighted by appearances by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill and policymaker Megan Greene.
Turkish inflation, expected on Thursday, is likely to have fallen to 48% in September. That would be below the central bank’s policy rate for the first time in years – currently at 50%. While it is a sign of progress, officials still have work to do to achieve an inflation target of less than 40% by the end of the year.
A number of monetary decisions are planned in the wider region:
-
On Monday, Mozambique’s central bank will cut borrowing costs for the fifth time in a row. Price growth is expected to slow due to the relative stability of the currency and a recent decline in oil prices. The difference between the benchmark and inflation is largest among central banks, followed by Bloomberg.
-
Icelandic officials are expected to keep interest rates at 9.25% on Wednesday, extending their grip on Western Europe’s highest borrowing costs by more than a year. Local lenders Islandsbanki hf and Kvika banki hf predict that Sedlabanki will start easing at this year’s closing meeting, scheduled for November 20.
-
The same day, Polish officials are expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged as they begin to coalesce around the resumption of austerity in the first quarter of 2025.
-
On Thursday, Tanzania’s central bank interest rate is likely to remain stable due to the inflationary impact of ongoing currency weakness. The shilling has depreciated by more than 3% against the dollar since July.
-
Romania’s central bank meets on Friday and could further cut borrowing costs ahead of a reshuffle of the nine-member board, with mandates set to expire on October 15.
Latin America
Colombian policymakers will almost certainly implement a seventh straight interest rate cut on Monday, marking the longest easing cycle in more than two decades.
Economists expect a fifth consecutive half-point cut to 10.25%, saying there is still room for the easing cycle as inflation rates and expectations ease. Three days later the bank publishes the minutes of the meeting.
Most analysts expect Chile’s data dump – seven separate indicators including industrial production, retail sales, copper production and GDP data – should show the economy is gaining strength heading into the end of the year.
Consumer prices in the Peruvian capital Lima were likely to remain just above the mid-2% mark of the central bank’s inflation target in September.
Julio Velarde, Peru’s central bank chief, has said that the year-end rate should be between 2% and 2.2%, and that the policy rate would be about 100 basis points below the benchmark Fed may fall.
In Brazil, three purchasing manager indexes and industrial production data are expected to show that Latin America’s largest economy is doing well and above its potential growth rate.
The primary and nominal budget balance reports are coming in as the country’s public finances have once again become a hot topic.
–With help from Paul Wallace, Demetrios Pogkas, Ragnhildur Sigurdardottir, Brian Fowler, Robert Jameson, Jane Pong, Laura Dhillon Kane, Piotr Skolimowski, Monique Vanek and Niclas Rolander.
(Updates with UK in EMEA section)
Most read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 BloombergLP