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The road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City. After eliminating the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will play in the AFC Championship Game for the seventh consecutive year. They are now just two wins away from the greatest achievement of the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in the way are the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the reigning two-time champions.
In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will look to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who defeated the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Jeff Howe discusses each of the two previous conference championship games The Athletics‘s NFL projection model, created by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)
The powers of the AFC would not budge this season as the Chiefs and Bills will meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.
The Bills capped off the showdown on Sunday night with a thrilling 27-25 victory against the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen defeated fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16 of 22 for 127 yards with a pair of rushing scores to fend off Baltimore’s comeback bid.
The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but they defeated the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outpacing them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third-down conversions. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry a lot of weight, and the Chiefs are the most balanced team on the field.
The Chiefs, if you haven’t heard, are looking to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’ve hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes aligned.
It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who has had more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than more than 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t made any mistakes: He’s been responsible for 13 touchdowns (one of them rushing) since his last interception two months ago.
Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in the loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship Games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover in the last eight games. That will be a focal point against the Bills, who earned three wins against the Ravens on Sunday and have forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.
Mahomes hasn’t gotten much help. His offensive tackles have been poor — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t shadowed at left tackle — and his skill players have been in and out of the lineup with injuries.
But he still has Travis Kelce, who just ripped off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dipped significantly during the regular season, but Kelce is as tight as ever in the playoffs. He’s gained at least 70 yards in 14 straight postseason games — averaging 99.1 yards per outing during that stretch — so Kelce is as automatic as they come. He also led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the past five postseasons.
And yet the NFL’s modern dynasty will be burdened with one question all week: Can they stop Allen?
Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.
Allen was 27 of 40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception as the Bills defeated the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a crucial fourth-and-2. That was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it might have been the performance that sparked Allen’s MVP campaign.
The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship during the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three straight wins in the last four years.
• Chiefs odds to win Super Bowl: 30.5%
• Bills’ chances to win the Super Bowl: 25.9%
Chance to win the Super Bowl
|
Team |
Chances |
|---|---|
|
33.8% |
|
|
30.5% |
|
|
25.9% |
|
|
9.8% |
NFC
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
The NFC North wore the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.
The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular season series, with the Commanders claiming a 36-33 win in their most recent meeting in Week 16 in Philadelphia. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.
The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points were the sixth-highest performance of the season after a strong performance from Kenny Pickett. The much more important story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite having a 5-2 lead in the turnover battle.
So what happens if the Eagles can’t come up with enough takeaways in the third? Perhaps that’s a moot point too, considering they had a slim 1-0 lead in the takeaways in the previous win. It’s rare that turnover didn’t make a difference in either outcome.
Yet the commanders do not want to test that theory further. The Eagles have forced 30 goals in their last 13 games, including a pair of forced fumbles during a crucial period in the second half as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.
GO DEEPER
The Commanders are one win away from the Super Bowl. Let that marinate for a while
Daniels has seen the Commanders’ offense play at an elite level in their pair of road wins in the playoffs. They have scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding runs to end halves, and have only scored once. They’ve turned over downs three times — a risk-reward formula that has been a net positive — but there have been no interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.
Daniels’ command in all situations was remarkable. Although the rookie possesses a clutch gene that will come in handy during their game-winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job keeping up the pressure on the top-seeded Lions on Saturday night, helping the Commanders score on four of their five possessions. a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels kept the ball constantly moving as the Lions tried to make a run.
Daniels will have to be great to get the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he will rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season came against the Eagles.
Hurts and the Eagles’ passing attack has been pedestrian since his return from the concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff wins, though he had 106 yards and a score as a rusher. As a result, wide receivers AJ Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) haven’t made much of an impact.
But fear not, because the Eagles still have Saquon Barkley back. The league’s top offseason signing had 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.
These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington winning their wild-card game in 1990. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.
The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championship games during the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.
• Eagles’ chances to win the Super Bowl: 33.8%
• Commanders’ Odds to Win the Super Bowl: 9.8%
(Photo of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang/Getty Images)