Put a price tag when expanding Kyle Tucker, Dylan Stakes and other threatening free agents

Monday’s deep dive in Paul Skenes, perhaps the most interesting extension case in baseball, was a taste of the extended week.

Now I will start a broader look at potential extensive candidates, who today concentrate on players whose value is less speculative: approaching free agents.

These players are generally less likely to sign an extension with a free agency waiting at the end of this season, and my analysis here is in fact projecting what every player could earn on the open market before he adds his 2025 salary. If nothing else, it is an early projection for a deal in free agent this coming winter.

Since last spring’s extension week, three players actually put pen on paper on an extension, all of whom earn a little more than I had projected:

*Here and in all other tables I will take into account considerable delay by using the current value of the contract when it was signed.

I tried to invoice this in the analysis this year.

Here is how I am doing this: I have a large Excel spreadsheet with more than 1,100 free-agent and extension contracts in it, as well as the performance of players in the years prior to those contracts, as defined by Fangraphs’ wins above replacement. While players are paid off at home runs and savings in arbitration, I have found that Fwar is a solid (although not all -knowing) predictor of income on the open market.

I connect with extension candidates to the spreadsheet, find players with similar production levels (and ideally with similar amounts of team control) before they signed their deals, and working of those compositions.

A few general points that are worth remembering:

• Team control is important for expansion. If player A looks on player B, except that player A has an arbitration for him for three years and player B was a free agent, player A will not get the contract player. What player B has made in the free agency, however, is still useful as a guide for what the later part of player A contract can look like.
• For starting pitchers and position players, I look at Fwar in samples of one, three and five years, with a special emphasis in the shorter term. Especially for expansions, the five -year monster is less useful because many players have not been playing for five full years.
• For relievers I look at samples of one and two years. What happened five years ago is not really relevant for such a fleeting position, and I have found a recent advantage here in contracts than elsewhere.
• This is an exercise in the valuation of players, not commenting on the chance that an extension will be signed or that I think a team or player must sign an extension with the value I propose. I find this useful, even if an extension is unlikely because it helps me to understand what the market can be as soon as a player reaches a free agency or to see how the value of the player has changed over time.

If we go through this, keep it in mind:

• The actual expansion projection in all cases includes what the player is planned to make this season. It will probably contain a lower AAV (average Value value) than the player would come to the open market for this reason.
• These players should have higher projections this year than last year. Last year they were two years away from a free agency, and they were planned to make under the market value via arbitration.
• The number in brackets is the age of the player on July 1 of this year.
• In the charts, “Today AAV” is the average annual value of the deal that has been adjusted for inflation.
  

  ---

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (26)

Maybe nobody in baseball had a better year for their potential income than Guerrero. His 5.5-win season (according to Fangraphs) washed all the worries after a pedestrians 2023 and the sport reminded him that he is one of the best batters. Moreover, a player with similar strengths and weaknesses is signed for more than $ 750 million. So Guerrero is considerably better this spring than he was last spring.

Earlier in the spring training I broke down why the value of Guerrero in an extension proved difficult to pin. At the moment he looks as if he hears contracts for first base men just below the second level of free-agent (Miguel Cabrera is the only resident of the top layer).

Expanding a deal for a huge 14-aged year from 14 agent would only limit the AAV to around $ 30 million. I know, I know: there will be a deal that is so crazy. But there have been a dozen players who have signed in the last three offseasons for at least nine years – or just shy of the number of contracts that was signed in the previous decade. Four of them (Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts) extend through the age 40 season of a player, as it would do for Guerrero.

2024 Expansion projection: Seven years, $ 185 million
2025 Salary: $ 28.5 million
2025 Expansion projection: 15 years, $ 450 million

Kyle Tucker (28)

If Tucker had remained healthy last season and continued to play as he did in the first half of the season, his best statistical compartments would be … Soto. Due to his age, Tucker would not have received a deal as long as Soto, but he would have been able to argue a similar average previous value.

The compositions are not bad as is.

Tucker should be able to close a deal for at least his age 36 season, and it is not difficult for him to claim that he has to go longer than Teixeira or Fielder. Let’s go by 10 years on around $ 35 million each before we add this season’s salary.

2024 Expansion projection: Eight years, $ 204 million
2025 Salary: $ 16.5 million
2025 Expansion projection: 11 years, $ 366 million

Dylan stops (29)

Last season Stage and Zac Galen came to a similar place: at the same age, who earn about the same in arbitration, in line for about the same extension. While Gallen had a nice season, St-Five placed a top five finish in the Cy Young Balloting. He has placed himself in the same group as the best starters of last winter.

Lester sets the high -end for stakes, and who suggests that ceases can actually get more than burns just from the diamondbacks. Both point to a deal that buys six Free agent for years. Let us estimate it to just less than $ 33 million and add this year’s salary.

2024 Expansion projection: Seven years, $ 140 million
2025 Salary: $ 13.75 million
2025 Expansion projection: Seven years, $ 210 million

Zac Gallen (29)

At the moment, Gallen is not entirely at the same level as ceases.

This sets him for around the 2025 version of CUETOS DEAL in free agency: six years and $ 174 million before this year’s salary is added.

2024 Expansion projection: Seven years, $ 140 million
2025 Salary: $ 13.5 million
2025 Expansion projection: Seven years, $ 187 million

Framber Valdez (31)

Valdez has had just as much success as stopping and galls; The problem for him is that he is two years older than those guys. Starters that arrive at the open market and enter their age-32 season rarely draw more than three or four years. (The exceptions are boys like Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, all of whom owned Cy Young Awards.)

Let’s stick to the same compositions as Gallen, but only for four free-agent years instead of six.

2024 Expansion projection: Five years, $ 105 million
2025 Salary: $ 18 million
2025 Expansion projection: Five years, $ 134 million

Devin Williams (30)

Just looking at the raw figures is not charming for Williams, who is based on the revival with recent shits who have signed four -year -old deals such as Raisel Iglesias and Tanner Scott. (Williams missed about two -thirds of last season.)

Given that no position is paid for reputation, such as closer, Williams can still stand in line for a deal that competitions Scott’s, before the salary is added this year.

2024 Expansion projection: N / A
2025 Salary: $ 8.6 million
2025 Expansion projection: Five years, $ 80 million

(Top photo of Dylan Stlaat: Orlando Ramirez / Getty images)