QB future for all 32 NFL teams: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and other intriguing questions

Russell Wilson playing for a new contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks among the top quarterback storylines heading into the 2024 NFL season’s final weeks. There are many others of interest, which makes this a good time to check in on all 32 quarterback situations.

As I usually do this time of year, I’ve grouped all 32 quarterbacks into buckets based on how their teams should feel about them, from “Committed Without Reservation” at one end to “We’re Looking For A Way Out” at the other.

The New York Giants’ current starter (Drew Lock) is not listed, but their former one (Daniel Jones) does appear. I’ve included contract duration and salary rank, along with where each ranks in EPA per pass play among the 40 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season.

1. Committed Without Reservation

We have top-five QBs in their primes, signed to long-term contracts.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Signed thru: 2031 | APY Rank: 12 | QB EPA Rank: 10/40

There’s been an interesting statistical tradeoff for Mahomes in recent weeks. After tossing eight touchdown passes with nine interceptions in the first seven games, the TD-INT ratio has flipped to 11-2 in five subsequent games. His sack rate has also jumped from 5.1 percent to 9.0 percent, while his rate of passes gaining more than 15 yards has dropped. Not that any of these things affect how the Chiefs feel about their quarterback, who leads the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (four) and game-winning drives (six), per Pro Football Reference.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 14 | QB EPA Rank: 4/40

Allen has become the betting favorite for MVP honors in recent weeks and is everything the Bills hoped they were getting when they traded up to draft him in 2018. His sack rate has fallen and his explosive pass rate has risen across all three offensive coordinators during his seven seasons.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Signed thru: 2027 | APY Rank: 8 | QB EPA Rank: 1/40

The Ravens are winning the big bet they made on Jackson when they signed him to an extension before the 2023 season. Jackson’s production, in decline before he signed the deal, has reached new highs. He has 41 more total touchdowns than turnovers since signing the deal, tied with Allen for the best differential in the league. Jackson ranked 21st (+13) across the 2021-22 seasons.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Signed thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 4 | QB EPA Rank: 6/40

Burrow passed for 820 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception in 41-38 and 35-34 defeats to Baltimore this season, capturing the essence of this Bengals season. Cincinnati ranks fifth in offensive EPA per play but only 30th on the defensive side. That is the largest differential between offensive and defensive rankings through Week 13. The other teams with similar disparities include the 8-5 Ravens (-24), 8-5 Commanders (-24) and 6-6 Buccaneers (-23).

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Signed thru: 2029 | APY Rank: 7 | QB EPA Rank: 21/40

Herbert was fifth in Quarterback Tiers voting before the 2023 and 2024 seasons despite slipping from Tier 1 to Tier 2 entering 2024. He’s throwing fewer passes and taking more sacks for a team that is winning on defense. It’s difficult to imagine coach Jim Harbaugh straying too far from his run-heavy philosophy.

2. Committed And Hoping The Sky Is The Limit

We think our young QBs can become stars (and there’s some evidence to prove we are right).

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 3 | QB EPA Rank: 13/40

Comparing Love to predecessor Aaron Rodgers would seem unfair if Love weren’t starting his career with similar production.

Rodgers through 27 starts: 64 percent completions, 7.8 yards per attempt, 50 touchdown passes, 18 interceptions

Love through 27 starts: 63 percent completions, 7.4 yards per attempt, 51 touchdown passes, 23 interceptions

The main differences: Rodgers added more EPA on scrambles and lost more EPA on sacks, while Love has lost more on interceptions.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Signed thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 26 | QB EPA Rank: 25/40

To what degree does Stroud’s decline in production from his rookie season reflect a weakened offensive line and injuries at receiver?

That will be a key question heading into next season for the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year.

3. Committed And Content

We have veteran quarterbacks signed for the long term and are happy with the situation.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 6 | QB EPA Rank: 3/40

Goff is proving to be a great good-team quarterback.

Now in his fourth season with Detroit, Goff is replicating his 2018 Super Bowl season with the Rams through 12 games, except he’s throwing the ball less frequently and throwing it shorter, which means a higher completion rate and fewer explosive gains.

Everything else is about the same: the won-lost record (11-1 both years), the passer rating (109.9 then, 109.0 now) and the elevated yards per attempt (9.1 then, 8.8 now).

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 9 | QB EPA Rank: 12/40

The Eagles are 31-4 through the first 12 games of the past three seasons with Hurts in the lineup. The big difference this season is how much more Philadelphia is leaning on its defense and ground game, led by Saquon Barkley.

Hurts, in his first season with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, has attempted 304 passes during the 10-2 start this season, down from 403 during the team’s 10-2 start last season. That’s a drop from 33.5 attempts per game to 25.3 per game.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 10 | QB EPA Rank: 14/40

Murray seems to have matured and is no longer defined by the “homework clause” Arizona put into (and later removed from) the contract extension he signed in July 2022.

After missing parts of the past two seasons with a torn ACL, he has started the first 12 games of a season for the first time since 2020, his second year in the league.

One big difference from then to now: He averaged a career-high 7.6 rushes and scrambles per game then, compared to a career-low 3.9 this season. While he leads the league in ESPN’s Total QBR metric, teams are blitzing Murray much more effectively than in recent seasons.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 1 | QB EPA Rank: 28/40

The Cowboys have had a winning record six times in seven seasons when Prescott started at least half the games and never had a losing season (they were 8-8 in 2019). But the team fell off in 2024, Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury and his new contract is set to count $89 million against the cap in 2025 — his age-32 season — making the future look murkier.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 18 | QB EPA Rank: 11/40

Mayfield has found a home in Tampa and is providing a solid return on the Buccaneers’ three-year, $100 million investment in him. Since joining Tampa Bay last season, he ranks 10th in EPA per pass play and is tied with the Ravens’ Jackson for the league lead in touchdown passes (53).

The Buccaneers have a mediocre record this season (6-6) because the defense ranks 29th in EPA per play. Mayfield has posted career-high totals through 12 games for passing yards (3,034), passing touchdowns (25), passer rating (101.3) and EPA per pass play (0.11). He’s done it for an offense that ranks fifth in points per game (27.2) and sixth in EPA per play.

4. Committed And Content, With No Guarantees

We like our QBs and have them signed beyond this season to deals containing little or no more guaranteed money. This gives us more flexibility to consider our options.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 15 | QB EPA Rank: 17/40

When Stafford sought a new contract last offseason, the Rams gave him $40 million fully guaranteed, with only $4 million in guarantees after this season. That gives the team greater flexibility to move on from Stafford if some combination of age/injury/performance leads the Rams to consider other options. Stafford remains the best option now. His three game-winning drives are his most since having four in 2021.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Signed thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 19 | QB EPA Rank: 23/40

The way this Seahawks season has played out under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, with the team skewing heavily toward the pass and Kenneth Walker III ranking 30th among running backs in rush yards, the focus could fall more on the overall approach than it falls on the person taking snaps from center.

Whatever the case, Smith remains under contract for 2025 under terms favorable to the team, as his $24.8 million in compensation is not guaranteed. That gives the Seahawks flexibility if they decide to consider other options.

Smith had 30 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions in his first season as the Seahawks’ starter (2022). He has 13 and 12, respectively, for an offense that has struggled to find consistency so far this season.

5. Committed With Concerns

We signed our QB to an expensive long-term extension but can’t feel great about it, for different reasons.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Signed thru: 2028 | APY Rank: 5 | QB EPA Rank: 2/40

The Dolphins struggled to function when Tagovailoa was not available to them, pushing back against perceptions that the quarterback was mostly a product of coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme and the team’s elite weaponry.

The team has averaged 0.09 EPA per play on offense with Tagovailoa, compared with -0.32 per play without him. That is the difference between being a top-five offense this season and being more than twice as bad as the last-ranked one (Cleveland at -0.15).

Tagovailoa and the Dolphins paid a heavy price for learning more about the quarterback’s value. The concussion he suffered against Buffalo in Week 2 spurred another round of questions about his long-term health and viability as a quarterback.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Signed thru: 2030 | APY Rank: 2 | QB EPA Rank: 27/40

There’s little evidence Lawrence can overcome tough situations, or that the Jaguars can help him enough to ensure success, but the team still entered into a $275 million extension with him before the season, when there was no looming deadline to do so.

Here’s where Lawrence ranks in EPA per pass play: 25th since 2021, 20th since 2022, 25th since 2023 and 24th this season. He’ll likely remain among the top five in average annual salary for years to come. Can he close the gap?

6. Committed Until No Longer Committed

Our veteran starters could be on the way out, for different reasons.

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 16 | QB EPA Rank: 9/40

The Saints’ next coach will likely help decide what course the team follows at quarterback after this season. Releasing Carr could be difficult given the team’s salary-cap situation, but all options would seem to be on the table as the club sets a new course. Designating him a post-June 1 release would make the most sense if the Saints decide to cut ties.

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons

Signed thru: 2027 | APY Rank: 13 | QB EPA Rank: 16/40

Cousins could be running out of chances to reverse a recent slide in production. How long before first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. becomes the best option? It seems fitting that this career crossroads has Cousins returning to Minnesota against his former team in Week 14. Here’s hoping Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is miked up during pregame, at least.

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Signed thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 17 | QB EPA Rank: 29/40

Rodgers’ contract has a $35 million option for 2025. It’s difficult to see the Jets exercising it when a franchise refresh seems appropriate and Rodgers, who just turned 41, has lost athleticism.

As disappointing as this Jets season has been from a quarterback standpoint, this might be worse: The team’s 88.2 passer rating is its second-best through 12 games since 2008.

7. Committed, But At What Value?

Our QB has earned an extension, but recent events have raised questions about the price.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Signed thru: 2025 | APY Rank: 84 | QB EPA Rank: 7/40

Purdy, with less than $3 million in career earnings, has a $1.1 million salary in 2024. He’s been the NFL’s biggest bargain over the past two-plus seasons and should be in line for a big raise, but how big?

Six weeks ago, the conversation revolved around whether Purdy might cash in for $60 million per year. But as the season slips away and some of Purdy’s physical limitations surface, could the 49ers decide to wait? Could they pursue more of a compromise deal, in the spirit of what Green Bay did with Love in 2023? There’s time to figure out something.

8. Lots to Play For Down The Stretch With Contract Talks Ahead

The veteran we signed on the cheap will command an extension if this keeps up.

Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 63 | QB EPA Rank: 8/40

The one-year, $1.2 million deal Wilson signed with the Steelers (while still collecting $37.8 million from Denver on his previous deal) ranks as the biggest bargain in the league this season.

Wilson’s passing production in six starts projects to 4,706 yards with 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions over a 17-game schedule. The final five games deliver some difficult defenses, but with the Steelers all but assured a playoff berth, Wilson has a great opportunity to make Pittsburgh his longer-term home.

9. Evaluating: Long Runways

Our first-round rookies are just getting started.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 24 | QB EPA Rank: 5/40

This season has showcased Daniels’ dual-threat prowess along with some preexisting durability concerns, but Washington must be very happy with its selection of Daniels overall. His EPA per pass play ranks fifth through 13 starts among all rookies since 2000, per TruMedia. Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Prescott rank higher. Wilson, Herbert and Stroud rank sixth through eighth, respectively. That is good company for Daniels.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 22 | QB EPA Rank: 30/40

Williams has gone from ranking among the bottom 10 in EPA per pass play under former coordinator Shane Waldron to ranking among the top 10 after three games with Thomas Brown in the role. Whether that is sustainable, the uptick has been encouraging for the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft. Who will be coaching Williams for the long term?

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 39 | QB EPA Rank: 26/40

Nix has feasted on the AFC West and NFC South, combining for 15 touchdown passes with one interception in eight games, including six Denver victories. He ranks among the top 10 in a range of passing categories, including EPA per pass play, since Week 8.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Signed thru: 2027 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 25 | QB EPA Rank: 22/40

Maye has less around him than the other first-round rookie quarterbacks, one reason the Patriots were reluctant to start him right away. He has arguably outperformed expectations given that context, shifting the focus away from him and onto what New England must do to help him in the coming offseason.

10. Evaluating: Clock Is Ticking

We haven’t given up on the 2023 first-round picks we benched, but there’s some urgency.

Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Benched after only two games this season, Young has played well enough in five games since his return to renew hope for his future. The Panthers are 2-3 and averaging 21.4 offensive points per game since Young’s return. They had a 2-16 record while averaging 11.2 points per game on offense in his previous 18 starts.

Signed thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 23 | QB EPA Rank: 34/40

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Signed thru: 2026 (not counting fifth-year option) | APY Rank: 29 | QB EPA Rank: 31/40

The Colts were much worse on offense during the two games Joe Flacco started than they were previously or since Richardson returned to the lineup for the past three games. Richardson remains a low-percentage passer capable of the spectacular but is still seeking consistency. How patient will the Colts be in developing him?

11. Evaluating: Need An Alternative

Our young QB could play his way into a future with us, but it’s looking like we’ll be in the market for an upgrade.

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 53 | QB EPA Rank: 35/40

The Titans’ current coaching staff inherited Levis and could keep him but presumably would not want to bet its future on him, given the returns so far. Can Levis finish strong?

Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders

Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 71 | QB EPA Rank: 15/40

The Raiders had O’Connell on their roster entering this season and preferred signing Gardner Minshew for $12.5 million per year. Can O’Connell play his way into their future plans over the remaining five games? His 340-yard game at Kansas City was a start.

12. Thank You For Your Service (And The Future Comp Pick)

We’re grateful for our QB but committed to a different one.

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 21 | QB EPA Rank: 19/40

The assumption here is that Darnold has played well enough to earn an opportunity greater than what the Vikings can promise him in 2025, when first-round pick J.J. McCarthy returns from knee surgery to presumably claim the starting job.

13. Likely Headed to Free Agency as a Bridge Starter/Backup

There will be a market for these veterans, but not necessarily as the undisputed starter.

Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns

Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 42 | QB EPA Rank: 20/40

The Browns are averaging 21.8 offensive points per game when Winston starts after averaging 13.4 when Deshaun Watson was in the lineup earlier in the season. Their rate of explosive pass plays has more than doubled from 8.4 percent with Watson to 17.8 percent with Winston.

It’s possible the Browns or another team will project Winston as a starter next season. The two pick sixes Winston threw against Denver on Monday night tempered some of the recent enthusiasm.

Daniel Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Signed thru: 2024 | APY Rank: 90 | QB EPA Rank: 32/40

Jones could fill the Darnold role for the Vikings next season if Darnold finds a better opportunity elsewhere. He could also test the market, although additional time with O’Connell in Minnesota could be good for his career longer term.

14. We’re Looking For A Way Out

Help! Our quarterback could not start for any team, but we owe him more than $90 million over the next two seasons.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Signed thru: 2026 | APY Rank: 11 | QB EPA Rank: 40/40

The worst contract in NFL history isn’t getting better soon enough for the Browns. Watson, out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, is scheduled to count $72.9 million against the cap in each of the next two seasons. Those figures could be manipulated in various ways, but Watson is getting his money regardless, unless he violates the contract in some way.

(Top photo of Russell Wilson, left, and Aaron Rodgers: Joe Sargent / Getty Images)