Rankings of 134 college football teams after Week 14: Penn State-Notre Dame and other key tossups

Editor’s Note: The Athletic 134 is a weekly ranking of all FBS college football teams.

It turns out the first 12-team College Football Playoff field could be mostly closed before championship weekend. After weeks of twists, turns, and hypotheticals, sorting out the 12 teams has largely become quite easy by the end. But the seeding of those teams remains completely up in the air, and it’s where the committee will be tested.

Ten, maybe eleven teams feel like locks: Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, Indiana, the Big 12 champion (Iowa State or Arizona State), the ACC champion (SMU or Clemson ) and the Mountain West champion (Boise State or UNLV). That’s 11. If you believe 11-1 SMU should be a lock regardless of the outcome of the ACC Championship Game, the field could be set if Clemson wins that game. If you don’t, an SMU loss would leave one spot up for grabs between Miami, Alabama, Ole Miss and South Carolina, along with the Mustangs.

But where will everyone be sown? Will earning the No. 5 seed actually be an advantage or not? Who has the best championship path from the quarterfinals? Who will get the final spot to host a first-round matchup with the No. 8 seed?

I’ve been quite at odds with the committee all season. I’ve ranked higher on SMU and Arizona State and lower on Miami than them. We don’t know how low Ohio State will fall after the Buckeyes’ shocking loss to Michigan, but I don’t think it should be too far.

It turns out that picking twelve teams this year might be easier than picking four teams. But the committee is about to set a major precedent: how it values ​​wins and losses, how it responds to conference championship losses, how it thinks about the SEC. It caused a firestorm by leaving Florida State a year ago, but was able to take it easy, knowing that specific decision would never come up again. But there will be at least one more 12-team field after this year, and the future shape of the CFP field could depend on how the final rankings go.

Here is this week’s Athletic 134.

1-10

Texas took care of business against Texas A&M, moving up to No. 2 with a chance to avenge its lone loss to Georgia. A win on Saturday in Atlanta and a loss in Oregon could put the Longhorns at No. 1. A loss at Texas and a win at Penn State could put the Nittany Lions at No. 1.

But I ranked Notre Dame ahead of Penn State at No. 3 this week, which in turn would put Notre Dame at No. 5 in my league. The reason the Fighting Irish jumped the Nittany Lions is because the two now have a common opponent in USC. Penn State went to overtime with the Trojans, while Notre Dame won by 14 (and also led by 21 until the final seconds). Yes, Notre Dame has that Northern Illinois loss hanging around its neck, but don’t forget that Penn State itself trailed a MAC team (Bowling Green) at halftime and held on for a seven-point win. If there’s one team that can’t lean too much on a MAC performance argument against Notre Dame, it’s Penn State.

The Irish are rolling. Ten of Notre Dame’s 11 wins have come by multiple scores, and the win against my No. 24 Louisville now looks better. Penn State has the better best win (No. 17 Illinois), and if the Nittany Lions beat Oregon or stay close, they’ll go back for the Irish.

Ohio State drops to No. 6, and it’s an important spot ahead. If these rankings were followed, No. 7 Tennessee would visit Columbus in the 8 vs. 9 matchup, instead of the Buckeyes coming to Knoxville. The last AP poll put Tennessee above Ohio State, but I don’t understand that at all. The teams’ respective losses to Michigan and Arkansas essentially cancel each other out. Ohio State still has two top-10 wins (Penn State, Indiana) and a one-point loss to No. 1 Oregon. Tennessee has the win over Alabama, no other top-25 wins and a 14-point loss to Georgia. Taking Saturday’s recency aside, Ohio State’s resume is clearly better than Tennessee’s. We’ll see if the committee agrees.

The rest of the top 10 remains the same, with SMU, Indiana and Boise State all winning comfortably.

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11-25

Alabama takes the last spot in my league, and this is where the committee has its toughest task. The Tide has two losses against 6-6 teams, including by 21 points at Oklahoma. But they also have three clear top-25 wins against Georgia, South Carolina and Missouri. Miami has zero top-25 wins if Louisville is not included in the committee, and the losses are to a 9-3 Syracuse team and a 7-5 Georgia Tech team that just took Georgia to eight overtimes. Does the committee prefer the better wins or the less bad losses? Fielding a three-loss team feels weird, but someone has to be the No. 12 team.

While South Carolina is arguably playing as well as anyone in the country right now, I don’t think there should be a CFP path for the Gamecocks. You all know that I rely on head-to-head results when comparing teams at the same overall level. South Carolina lost to Alabama and Ole Miss, the latter losing at home 27-3. I just can’t put the Gamecocks higher than those two. The games have to matter. Perhaps the committee thinks differently.

Illinois jumps ahead of Colorado as an adjustment from last week. Both teams are 9-3, and Illinois went 2-0 against their common opponents (Nebraska and Kansas), while Colorado went 0-2. Syracuse returns to the top 25 with its win over Miami; UNLV also gives Syracuse a top-25 win. Clemson is barely hanging on in the top 25 because its game against South Carolina was close, but the Tigers have just one win over a team with a winning record (a late escape against 7-5 Pitt), and they lost decisively at home to Louisville . And yet Clemson has a shot at the CFP in the ACC Championship. Meanwhile, the Cardinals move up to No. 24 after a 41-14 win at Kentucky.

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Stewart Mandel’s 12-team Playoff projections after Week 14

26-50

Texas A&M drops to No. 26 after its 17-7 home loss to Texas. Kansas State drops to No. 29 after a loss to Iowa State. Tulane’s loss to Memphis drops the Green Wave to number 30.

Michigan jumps to No. 31 after the win against Ohio State, and Georgia Tech overall remains in the same spot at No. 32 after bringing Georgia to the brink. Baylor finished the season with six straight wins and remains at No. 34. Louisiana recorded 10 wins and rises to No. 40; the Ragin’ Cajuns will play for the Sun Belt championship this weekend.

Pitt has turned a 7-0 start into a 7-5 finish to drop to No. 45, although injuries have certainly played a role in that. Vanderbilt, another former top-25 team here, falls to No. 42 after a 36-23 loss to Tennessee, handing the Commodores four losses in their last five against SEC competition. Back in the top 50 after wins are Navy (over East Carolina), Boston College (over North Carolina) and Rutgers (over Michigan State).

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What does the return of Texas-Texas A&M mean? This is what I saw before, during and after

51-75

Nebraska falls out of the top 50 to No. 51 after another late loss to Iowa. Marshall came back late to beat James Madison, win the Sun Belt East and move up to No. 52. West Virginia lost 52-15 to Texas Tech, then fired head coach Neal Brown and now falls to No. 54. Washington State , once 8-1 overall and ranked in the top 25, ended the regular season with three consecutive surprising losses to New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming, all of which ended with losing records. The Cougars fall to No. 55.

No. No. 57 Virginia Tech and No. 58 NC State are moving up after rivalry wins put them in bowl eligibility. No. No. 65 UConn defeated UMass to move to 8-4, its most wins in a season since 2010. Meanwhile, No. 60 Auburn, No. 62 Virginia, No. 63 Wisconsin, No. 64 Cincinnati and No. 67 Michigan State all fell after losses that forced them to miss bowl games.

Western Kentucky defeated Jacksonville State, so the Hilltoppers jump to No. 68, and the two teams will square it off on Friday in the Conference USA Championship Game. Georgia Southern beats rival Appalachian State and the Eagles rise to No. 71.

76-100

No. No. 79 Miami (Ohio) and No. 80 Ohio will play a rematch for the MAC championship on Saturday (Miami defeated Ohio 30-20 in mid-October). San Jose State defeated Stanford and jumped to No. 81 to cap off a strong first season under Ken Niumatalolo. North Texas barely held on, but defeated Temple and eventually reached bowl eligibility, moving up to No. 93. Hawaii’s win against New Mexico moves the Rainbow Warriors up to No. 98.

101-134

This is the part of the rankings where the majority of the remaining teams are in their last landing spot, with no hope of a bowl game. Oklahoma State’s disastrous 3-9 season ended with a 52-0 loss to Colorado and an 0-9 record in the Big 12, dropping it to No. 103. The Cowboys only felt like the worst Power 4- team this stretch: No. 104. Mississippi State, No. 105 Florida State and No. 112 Purdue were worse. Last year there was only one Power 4 team that finished 2-10 or worse (Vandy). This year we got three.

ULM started 5-0 but finished 5-7 and finished at No. 107. Louisiana Tech won two of its last three games to finish 5-7, rising to No. 109 and head coach Sonny Cumbie will return next season. Air Force won its last four games to fall to 5-7 and No. 111. San Diego State, meanwhile, lost its last six games to fall to 3-9 and No. 126. Kennesaw State finished 2-10 and No. 132 in his first FBS season.

Kent State became the first 0-12 team in the FBS since 2019 with the loss to Buffalo. The Golden Flashes finished within three scores in just two games — against FCS St. Francis (Pa.) and Ball State, which fired its coach.

The Athletic 134 series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories prior to publication.

(Photo: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)