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Rational and Religious (with Ross Douthat)

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Rational and Religious (with Ross Douthat)
0:37

Intro. [Recording date: March 19, 2025.]

Russ Roberts: Today is March 19th, 2025, and my guest is author and journalist, Ross Douthat. He is an Opinion Columnist for The New York Times. And our topic for today is his latest book, Believe: Why Everyone Should Be Religious. Ross, welcome to EconTalk.

Ross Douthat: Thanks for having me. It’s a pleasure.

Russ Roberts: Before we begin, I want to mention this conversation may cover some themes inappropriate for young children. Feel free to screen this if you are a parent.

1:05

Russ Roberts: As most EconTalk listeners know, I’m a religious Jew. Some listeners when discovering that write me and say they’re surprised because they’ve always thought I was intelligent. I sometimes respond by saying, ‘Well, a lot of intelligent people in history have been believers. Isaac Newton, C.S. Lewis, Maimonides.’ And, a typical response I get then is, ‘Well, sure, then. Then, a smart person could be a believer; but now, I mean, those people wouldn’t be religious now.’

Your book is an attempt to justify belief or the exploration of belief from an intelligent perspective. Give us the thumbnail for the skeptics out there. How could a thoughtful, intelligent, rational, educated, enlightened person in 2025 actually believe in an invisible being that you and I would call God?

Ross Douthat: So, the conceit of the book is that most of the reasons that made people, made it seem reasonable to be religious back then–as your correspondents would put it–still obtain today. And, that there is a sort of master narrative of modern secularism or modern atheism that says, ‘Look, there were good reasons to believe before Copernicus and Galileo.’ Or ‘There were good reasons to believe before Charles Darwin.’ Or maybe, some people would say there were good reasons to believe before neuroscience; or different sort of scientific revolutions are picked out and identified.

And, I think that those revolutions did in fact call into question certain specific tenets of specific religions. And, we operate in the West inside a monotheistic Abrahamic heritage. We’ve had a sort of heavily Christian–Christian-dominated–culture, and there’s no question that the early scientific revolutions and revelations about the shape of the cosmos and the solar system and everything else challenged medieval Catholicism’s conception of the order of the planets and the sun and the stars. Which was I think not really, strictly speaking, a point of Catholic doctrine, was more an inheritance from Ptolemy; but it was something the Church was committed to, and that very famously created a particular crisis.

Darwinism goes a little further and calls into question a lot of readings–Jewish and Christian I would say, but especially Christian–because of Christian ideas about original sin of the Book of Genesis and the origins of human life, right?

So, it’s absolutely the case that science can and has challenged particular doctrines and particular beliefs. But, the general religious picture–and this is a book that I think for various reasons tries to start by laying out a very general case for why someone would be religious, before you get to whether you should be Jewish or Muslim or Christian or Buddhist or whatever else–the general religious argument that we find ourselves in a universe that appears to be structured and designed in ways conducive to the emergence, not just of order and sort of regularity and mathematical patterns, but planet, stars, and conscious life: that’s a striking thing. There are lots of other possible universes that would not contain anything quite like the world in which we find ourselves. And, the fact that there’s a correspondence between that overarching structure and the mystery of our own consciousness, our own mind and its ability to penetrate into the deep mysteries of the cosmos and to understand them.

And then, the fact that a persistent feature of human culture from ancient times from back then–as your correspondents would say–to the present, is religious and spiritual experience. Intimations, experiences, some of them more commonplace, some of them more outré, some of them alarming. But, experiences that persist under secular conditions, experiences that happen to people who don’t believe in God, as well as people who believe in God. Experiences that seem to give strong indicators that there are invisible forces in the world, higher powers if you will, that are interested in communicating with and being in some kind of relationship with us. I think that combination–general order, yielding human life, a correspondence between our consciousness and the general order, and constant persistent enduring intimations of transcendence–is enough to make it very, very rational to be a religious believer of some kind.

6:18

Russ Roberts: And you couch it in the right way, I think–the probabilistic way that, we’re not talking about absolute certainty–that’s one of the other gifts of science and the modern perspective. We’re not talking about 100% chance. This question is: Is there evidence that might comfort a would-be believer that is rational?

I just want to add, by the way, that in your brief thumbnail–which is lovely–of how science challenged faith. The other, I think, narrative about the past, which I find amusing, is that everyone believed in God and was 100% religious until Darwin, and then nobody believed in God anymore except a few crazy people.

I’m pretty confident that there has been non-believers throughout much of the ancient past, and that science did have an effect on where the balance of the evidence lay for some people. But, this idea that people were robotic–people who are comforted constantly by, say, the existence of an afterlife, is I think kind of a foolish way to look at human history.

Ross Douthat: I agree, and I think at the very least you would say you have only to look at human behavior in the past to get a strong indication that whatever people formally believed, they were not living their life in some way where–they were not manifesting the kind of certainty in belief that you associate with saints, great philosophers of religion, pious peasant women, whoever else. Right?

One thing in Christianity: we have a lot of debates about the doctrine of Hell. That is a big point of debate and discussion always, but especially nowadays. And, one thing you will often hear is a complaint from critics of the doctrine who say that, ‘Well, the fear of Hell was this horrible punishing thing that hung over every Christian believer for the last 2,000 years and made their life a misery.’ And, obviously, there are cases where that is true; there are people whose psychology has been warped by an overemphasis on eternal damnation. But, if you go back and look at, like, the history of the Middle Ages and how Christians were actually behaving at what was a–I think it’s fair to say–a peak of formal belief in the doctrine of Hell, I don’t get the strong sense that the average knight and chevalier in 13th century France was waking up every day thinking, ‘Oh, the–Hell, it’s this thing that I have to think about all the time that’s preventing me from having a good time and smiting my enemies and bedding my mistress,’ and anything like that. People have always been people, and have always tended to prioritize the immediate and the material even under cultural conditions, obviously, that make religious belief seem more compelling and more commonplace.

9:45

Russ Roberts: Now, I want to start with a topic–as we get into the details of the book, I want to alert listeners who are not interested in this topic that I won’t let it go on for more than five or 10 minutes. I’m sure many of you out there are tired of this topic. I am ceaselessly intrigued by it, so I don’t know how painful it is for you out there. But, we’re going to talk about consciousness.

And, in particular what the book–and you write about this quite poetically and quite beautifully–there is a belief, a very common belief among highly educated people, that there is nothing beyond the material. That the brain is a set of electrical signals. There’s no such thing as the soul. That’s a childish idea that we have no material evidence for. And so, as a result, a lot of the things that people say about the human experience, those are just the freakish electrical signals that the brain produces and that’s just the reality we have to face. That’s–you alluded to the advances in neuroscience; we’ve looked into the brain. There’s no soul there; there’s no little creature, the real us. So, what does consciousness and the brain have to do with your view of belief?

Ross Douthat: I sort of think that a primary question that drives the divide between the religious person and the non-religious person is: what do we think is the primary thing in the cosmos?

We have access, as people experiencing life, to two broad categories of things. One is mind, it’s the direct experience of being a conscious being, whatever that may mean. Right? It’s an experience I’m having, you’re having right now having this conversation.

And the second experience is the experience of matter and the material world, which is filtered through our conscious experience. Right? If I touch the table here or rub my laptop screen or something, I’m having an encounter with the material, but that is then being translated in some way into my conscious experience, the experience of being a self in the world.

And, I think the religious argument is basically just that we have a variety of good reasons to think that mind is probably primary. And, matter, while real–the question of what matter actually is, is itself a slightly harder question to answer than some materialists tend to think. But, you said only five or 10 minutes, so we’ll set that one aside, and just say there are good reasons to think that mind is something primary. And, those reasons start with the fact that it is very, very hard to give a clear account of how the experience of mind arises from–in any kind of direct, scientifically testable way–from the electrical impulses and everything else and chemical reactions in the brain.

Clearly, the two are intertwined in some way. And, obviously, neuroscience has demonstrated convincingly that certain parts of the brain have certain effects on your consciousness–just that we sort of knew that already because we knew that drinking strong spirits has a strong effect on your consciousness.

But we know a lot more about that now. So, there’s no–I think a sort of hard Cartesianism where mind and body are completely separate in some way and they only attach at one particular point: That seems wrong. Consciousness somehow interpenetrates the material.

But yeah: there’s no good account on offer, I think, from any materialist or reductionist–and I’ve read most of those accounts–that it actually explains what consciousness is and how it works. And the best you can get to is a kind of illusionist case in a sense, which says that consciousness is sort of–it’s an illusion of control. Right? We have the illusion of selfhood and the illusion of control, and this is advantageous in some way that is then hard to explain, because, presumably, if it’s an illusion of control, all the processes would run the same way without this sense of being a spectator and a passenger and an actor. Right? So, it’s sort of, like, you know, you think that you’re making choices and making decisions, but really, you’re just sort of watching a movie and thinking you’re participating in it.

But, wouldn’t it be simpler to have a universe where the systems just ran on their own, if the conscious observer isn’t actually doing anything?

So, I think materialism struggles to explain consciousness, but then we also just have a number more of specific reasons recently, including the ones I alluded to before, but adding in some of the spooky stuff that goes on with quantum physics and the way that measurement and mind seems to interact and sort of collapse possibility into reality.

And, there’s a number of ways I think in which the case for mind as a primary thing has actually gotten stronger in the last 100 years, notwithstanding all the advances in neuroscience and everything else.

15:26

Russ Roberts: The way I think about it is: our command of the material world as human beings has expanded unimaginably over the last century. It’s part of a much longer process, obviously. We understand extraordinary things about the universe, about the cosmos, about the microcosmos.

It’s a weird thing that one of the few mysteries the brain has failed to fathom is the brain. It’s kind of–‘Well, one way to look at it is: It’s only one thing. We’ve done an extraordinary job everywhere else, so this is just one little corner we’re struggling with.’ It’s kind of an important corner. It’s the corner with which we access the universe and our experience. Could just be it’s a matter of time; some people believe that. Some people believe it will always be veiled from us. Using a brain to understand the brain may be beyond our capabilities.

Alan Lightman on this program–we’ll link to that episode; I’ve interviewed him a few times–but on one of our conversations, his view is that–and I think this is a common view among scientists–is that the brain’s capability is just a bonus. Some of the more aspects of the brain, like which we might talk about–yearning; I would talk about a sense of justice, regret, embarrassment. Many of the human emotions that we experienced intensely inside this little thing that we carry around with us called our head, those are just things that, they’re just sometimes negative bonuses, sometimes positive bonuses. They’re just things that came along for the ride.

And, you’re arguing essentially that that’s not a very appealing argument. It’s not an appealing argument, for sure. It could be true, but it’s not appealing.

Ross Douthat: Well, I think that the weakness–and I’ve read a bunch of Lightman, actually. And the problem is still the explanation of–whether they’re a bonus or not, right? Whether are they essential to the functioning of the brain or not, right? Could you have human beings without consciousness? Could you have P-zombies, right? The idea–zombies, basically human beings who do everything that conscious beings do, but are in fact not conscious? Could that exist?

And those are really interesting questions. But there is still also just the primary question of: How do you get consciousness? Like, how do you get it? How do you actually generate this kind of particular experience? Which has different layers, right? There’s sort of a primary experience just of the mystery of, like, yourself in the world. You’re having the experience of this conversation. Like, how do you experience the redness of a rose, right? The qualia–to use the lingo of neuroscientists–the qualities of existence that are not explained just by doing, deconstructing the chemical composition of the rose.

Then you have above that, like, reason and judgment, right? Like, what is it to reason? Human beings reason abstractly. What does that mean in the context of a material cosmos? How does a strictly material cosmos generate abstract reasoning that works? That sort of–the further question–right?–you mention: we’ve unraveled all these mysteries, figured out all these things, developed an abstract language of mathematics that just happens to correlate really well with how objects work in the real world. How does any of that work?

And Lightman, as I recall, spends a certain amount of time talking about emergence–right?–which is the sort of catch-all term that would be, well, they wouldn’t say they’re reductionists. They would say, ‘We’re not reductionists because we think consciousness is real. We just think it’s emergent. It’s an emergent property.’

And, I’m not sure if I’m getting the Lightman one right, but I think he talks about the motion of a car. Right? Like, it emerges from the wheel and the axle and everything else, right? So, you can’t define it to one material thing, but you know it when you see it.

But, consciousness is just not like the motion of a car. You can observe the motion of a car and draw a strict material correlation between the movement of all the parts and the larger motion. There’s no such connection with consciousness. When people talk about emergence to me, they’re still talking about magic.

19:57

Russ Roberts: And, of course, this is–we’re now about to move on to a new topic–but we’re going to stop at one that I think I’m also more interested than my average listener, which is AI [Artificial Intelligence] and whether it will become conscious.

What most–many–AI researchers believe is that just as the brain–the electrical signals of the chemicals and the flesh, the physical entity of the brain–yields consciousness in a way that we don’t fully understand, that any one piece is not decisive but all them together allows consciousness to emerge. They believe that AI will have the same experience: That, although we don’t understand exactly how artificial intelligence currently works in responding to our queries on chatbots, using LLMs [Large Language Models]–just, it’s a better time. It will just coalesce and emerge the way consciousness emerged out of the human physical things. And then, the AIs will be conscious and will have many of the experiences that humans have–of agency, of longing, of regret. You know, my example–listeners are probably tired of–but that a Roomba, that a vacuum cleaner might wish it had become a driverless car and yearn for that. That that could someday happen.

I’m a skeptic, but the truth is, I have trouble explaining my skepticism because I don’t understand how humans have yearnings to be other things and to regret what they’ve chosen in the past they’ve staked out. So, since I don’t understand that, I can’t really rule out a machine being able to reach that place. But I’m skeptical. So, in your–

Ross Douthat: I think that’s the right posture for the person like you and I, who thinks that this is a seeming hard limit on materialism. You should be skeptical that just by sort of building a machine without having any conception of how to make it conscious, but just building something that seems to produce outputs that are like the human mind, you’ll get the inner experience. But, you shouldn’t rule it out precisely because we don’t have a materialist account of how consciousness emerges. Right?

So, if it turned out that at some level of complexity, AI suddenly manifests consciousness–and again, it would be hard to prove exactly; the proof question would be a tricky one–I certainly think people will think AIs are conscious before they are. I think that is almost certain. But if it did emerge, that would not actually prove anything about materialism, because materialism still wouldn’t have an account of how it had actually happened. Right?

And I mean, to put on my spooky, spooky weird religious-stuff hat for a minute too, there is an element in the AI project of a kind of–I mean, well, in Jewish terms it’s the Golem legend, right? But, it’s a summoning, right? There isn’t in some way an actual sense in which the AI project is saying, ‘We are building agents that can do human things,’ and at some level we sort of expect to call up out of the vasty deep a spirit that will inhabit them, which is part of the strangeness of our own time. I think there’s sort of a general strangeness that is one reason I wrote this book now, is that I think we’re in a stranger moment than we were 10 or 15 years ago, in terms of sort of the spiritual and the material.

Russ Roberts: I think that’s right.

23:58

Russ Roberts: Let’s turn to a–as I promised–a different topic. And, as a believer, there are certain arguments people make for faith that give me the willies. I’m sure you find that as well. One of those is relying on coincidences to prove the hand of God. Usually for me, that just shows a lack of understanding of probability, or–I’ll just say it that way.

Another area that I’m troubled by, but you are not, is what we would call near-death experiences. There, you write about that, you write about mystical experiences, so-called spiritual experiences. I think many people have, and Alan Lightman writes about it in quite eloquent terms, an experience of transcendence or awe. Hard to understand where that would come from in a material world, but we have it. But near-death is, and what people experience in near-death experiences is–it’s just never spoken to me. But, I want you to make the case; and you’ve studied it much more than I have, so take a shot.

Ross Douthat: Sure. Well, so first, I agree with you that there are certain forms of religious experience that you would expect to happen or expect some version of them to show up, even were religion not true, God didn’t exist, and so on. Right? And, coincidence–the person who has a dream that turns out to come true. Right? People have a lot of dreams, you live a long time. Eventually one of them is going to stand out and look prophetic just through the law of large numbers. Right? So, I think there are ways–now that doesn’t mean I’m ruling out that you could actually have a prophetic dream. I’m just saying certain things that people experience are expected to some degree within a cosmos that is not created by God.

Russ Roberts: Before you go on and get to near-death, you should make a reference because it is kind of extraordinary as a case of this kind, the Michael Shermer experience. It’s a little bit off the charts: it did kind of–it was interesting.

Ross Douthat: Yeah, so that’s more–I think, the supernatural or mystical experiences that are more persuasive are the ones that don’t seem like just law of large numbers things, that have some sort of concrete reality, in terms of either the intensity of the personal experience, the correlates like physical healing, near-death experiences, which I’ll get to in a minute. Or, the example that I used, which is from the professional skeptic, Michael Shermer, a really smart guy who spent most of his career debunking bad paranormal and supernatural claims. And, at one point in his life, he was getting married and his wife had a radio that had been given to her, I think by her great-uncle, but someone who had passed away who meant a lot to her, who she wished could be at the wedding. And, the radio had never worked. It was an old radio; it was broken. Shermer himself had tried to fix it repeatedly, could never get it to work.

And, on their wedding day, they went back into their house after the ceremony, and they heard music coming from the back of the house. And, they went in–I’m not sure if they found it in a drawer, I can’t remember the details–but it was the radio; and it was playing a love song, a kind you would dance to at a wedding. And, it did this during the wedding, and then it shifted over to some kind of, again, appropriate classical music or something in the evening. And then, it stopped and it never worked again. And, Shermer was clearly really struck by this.

Russ Roberts: Understandably.

Ross Douthat: And, to his credit–he has written about it several times and tried to come up with different theories. Maybe there’s a multiverse and her great-uncle is still alive in another branch of the multiverse, and they have a way of communicating across the multiverse. Right? I mean, you can come up with theories. But it clearly–it’s a good case study of the kind of thing–and, I’ve known many people who have had things like this happen to them–the kind of thing that happens in the world that you need some explanation besides just coincidence and the law of large numbers to explain.

And, I do feel like people underestimate because we live in a regime of official secularism. Plenty of people are religious, but if you go over to you Yale Law School or write a Wikipedia entry or something, you’re expected to sort of rule out supernatural ideas. People underestimate just how commonplace these kind of weird experiences are. Not in the sense that most people are having them all the time, but lots and lots of people have, couple things that happen in their life that seem like a finger pushing in a little bit.

Near-death experiences, then–sorry, did you want to–?

29:19

Russ Roberts: Yeah, I was just going to say, there’s a natural–I think those who are listening and haven’t heard that story, and I had not heard it before I read it in your book, the radio story–I think the world is divided into two groups of people: the people who love the idea that that could be true, and not just that it happened or that Michael Shermer tells the story, but rather that the world could work in that mysterious, mystical, and beautiful way. A lot of movies exploit that human longing. And then there’s the other group of people who are people who just assume Michael Shermer was on drugs that night, or he did something–somebody tampered with his manuscript when he was setting it up for publication. They can’t bear the idea that such a thing could be true, rather than the other group that longs for it.

So, I just wanted to mention, I think that’s just an interesting part of the human experience. But, you can react to that if you want, and then you can talk about near-death.

Ross Douthat: Yeah, no; I think that’s right. I think there are certainly people for whom the default assumption–and this sort of goes back to David Hume, right?–is that if there’s a miracle, by definition it’s so unlikely that you should look for any other explanation. And, even though you think Michael Shermer seems like a trustworthy guy and he has put this story in enough books that if he had really been on drugs at the time, probably someone would have mentioned it and said, ‘Ask Shermer. He was pretty out there at that wedding.’ Nonetheless, yeah, the default should be that he and his spouse were deceived in some way, where, had someone else been there, they would not have seen the same thing or had the same experience, right?

Near-death experiences: I don’t want to over–push this too hard. I have a strong interest in these stories. I don’t think you can say things that are completely definitive about them. But basically, some meaningful percentage of people who experience something close to death–I’m not going to say it’s death because there’s endless debates about when brain activity ceases and when you’re really dead–but, people who come to the threshold of death and then come back, have a strikingly consistent kind of experience that involves the clichés that you hear about in pop culture, that you encounter dead relatives and ancestors. Sometimes you have a feeling of a kind of life review under moral judgment, right? Or, and there’s some–it’s not always under strong moral judgment, sometimes it’s just a review of your life. There’s the tunnel, there’s the white light, there’s feelings of love and peace and so on.

And, this exists across cultures. It takes different forms. You’ll get some Buddhist features in near-death experiences in China and some Hindu features, and there’s clearly some sort of impact of cultural expectations or religious expectations on what you see, which is itself an interesting point.

But there’s also–but these experiences are, they’re quite different as far as I can tell from reading the literature, and from talking to some people who’ve had them: from hallucinatory experiences or dreams, which are the two things they’re most often analogized to. They have a intensity and clarity of experience. They’re perceived as more real than real. They are life-changing. People who come back from them change their metaphysical perspectives, change their moral perspectives. Sometimes in ways that don’t go well, like you’ll have people who are, like, ‘I’m committed to a higher power and I’m leaving my family,’ or something. It’s not like a simple, everyone just becomes good because of this; but it’s life-changing, right? [More to come, 33:20]

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