Reducing processed meat intake may have significant health benefits, research suggests

One study suggests that reducing processed meat consumption by about a third in the US could prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes over ten years. Reducing U.S. adults’ processed meat intake by 30% — the equivalent of about ten slices of bacon per week — would also lead to tens of thousands fewer cases of cardiovascular disease and colon cancer, researchers say.

A team from the University of Edinburgh’s Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems, together with the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, has developed a simulation tool to estimate the health effects of reducing consumption of processed meat and unprocessed red meat.

While many studies have shown links between high consumption of processed meat and chronic diseases, few have evaluated the impact on multiple health outcomes. Previous research also suggests that unprocessed red meat may contribute to the risk of chronic disease, but the evidence is still limited.

The researchers used data from a national health survey from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to create a simulated, representative sample of the US adult population – a so-called microsimulation.

Their microsimulation is the first to estimate the effects of reducing consumption of processed meat and unprocessed red meat – from between 5 and 100% – on multiple health outcomes in the US.

The team estimated how changes in meat consumption affect the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer and death in adults. The effects were evaluated for the total population and separately by age, gender, household income and ethnicity.

In addition to preventing more than 350,000 cases of diabetes, reducing processed meat intake by 30% would lead to 92,500 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease and 53,300 fewer cases of colorectal cancer over a decade, researchers say.

In this scenario, white men and people with annual household incomes between $25,000 and $55,000 were found to experience the greatest health benefits.

Researchers also analyzed the effects of reducing intake of unprocessed red meat alone and reducing consumption of both processed meat and unprocessed red meat.

Reducing consumption of both by 30% resulted in 1,073,400 fewer cases of diabetes, 382,400 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease and 84,400 fewer cases of colorectal cancer.

Just reducing unprocessed red meat intake by 30% – which would mean eating about half a pound less beef burger per week – resulted in more than 732,000 fewer diabetes cases. It also led to 291,500 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease and 32,200 fewer cases of colorectal cancer.

The finding that more cases of disease were prevented by reducing unprocessed red meat compared to processed meat is partly due to the fact that the average daily intake of unprocessed red meat is higher than that of processed meat, 47 grams versus 29 grams, respectively per day.

Because less is known about the effect of eating unprocessed red meat on the risk of chronic disease, the team says these estimates should be interpreted with caution and that more research is needed.

The research was published in The Lancet Planetary Health.

Professor Lindsay Jaacks, Personal Chair of Global Health and Nutrition at the University of Edinburgh, and one of the authors of the study, said: “Reducing meat consumption has been recommended by national and international organizations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including the climate crisis. Change Committee here in Britain and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

“Our research shows that these dietary changes can also have significant health benefits in the US, so this is a clear win-win for people and the planet.”