Economists like to look at actual behavior as a way to conclude what people believe. This is called ‘revealed preference’. I have always found it as a very useful tool.
Recent statements by Trump administration top officials have surprised observers on both sides of the political spectrum. Here is the National assessmentA conservative publication that generally supports Trump, but differs from his views on a number of important issues:
But so far in his second term, with regard to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Trump has offered to Vladimir Putin that Ukraine will not recapture all his annexed and occupied sovereign territory that Ukraine will not be at NATO, there will be no American troops will be on Ukrainian soil after the war and that the US will increase sanctions on Russia. And Trump can even withdraw a withdrawal of the extra 20,000 American troops that Joe Biden sent to NATO’s eastern flank after the invasion of Ukraine to NATO flank.
And in exchange, Putin was offered. . . Well, nothing.
Critics have complained that this is not the kind of behavior that you would expect from a politician who is proud to be a competent dealer.
A few days ago, I suggested That the critics were wrong. They operated under the wrong assumption that Ukraine was the ally of America and Russia was our enemy. Trump has long been an admirer of Vladimir Putin and is often negative for the Ukrainian government. Instead of considering this kind of pre-negotiation concessions such as ‘mistakes’, I saw them as a tactic to weaken the negotiation position of Ukraine. Simply put, Trump sees America as the Russian friend, affiliated with Ukraine and the EU.
Today Trump has almost confirmed my claim:
As for the war, President Donald Trump tells the Ukrainians: “You should never have started it!” Somewhere in Moscow, Vladimir Putin has to grin from ear to ear.
As a result, the national assessment now shares my opinion:
Trump waves and speaks around and tries everything to justify his current de facto pro-Russian attitude.
Pps. Hard to believe that this was only three years ago: