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Robotaxi, cheap EV updates crucial to the bull thesis

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Robotaxi, cheap EV updates crucial to the bull thesis

Tesla (TSLA) will report second-quarter results after the bell on Tuesday, with investors focusing on the EV maker’s future vehicle roadmap, robotaxi rollout and other initiatives such as AI and Tesla Energy.

Tesla shares are still essentially flat this year, despite a steep sell-off at the start of the year. The enthusiasm behind a Tesla robotaxi, shareholder approval of Musk’s controversial pay package and new growth in Tesla’s energy business sent Tesla shares soaring — nearly 38% in the past month.

But a backlash over Tesla’s robotaxi unveiling has given investors pause. Musk all but confirmed last week that Tesla would postpone its robotaxi unveiling, which was scheduled for August 8.

“I asked about what I think is a major design change to the front end, and the extra time allows us to show a few other things,” Musk tweeted in response to a message about changes and delays to the robotaxi.

FILE - Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, speaks at the SATELLITE Conference and Exhibition, March 9, 2020, in Washington.  On Monday, July 15, 2024, Musk appeared to confirm a report that the company's much-publicized event to unveil a robotaxi will be postponed beyond its scheduled date of August 8.  (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)FILE - Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, speaks at the SATELLITE Conference and Exhibition, March 9, 2020, in Washington.  On Monday, July 15, 2024, Musk appeared to confirm a report that the company's much-publicized event to unveil a robotaxi will be postponed beyond its scheduled date of August 8.  (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

FILE – Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, speaks at the SATELLITE Conference and Exhibition, March 9, 2020, in Washington. On Monday, July 15, 2024, Musk appeared to confirm a report that the company’s much-publicized event to unveil a robotaxi will be postponed beyond its scheduled date of August 8. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

With a robotaxi date in limbo, investors expect Tesla and Musk to provide an update on the car’s debut.

“Addressing the delay on Robotaxi Day and the new timing will be important to hear on the conference call as we believe a pivot that will see Tesla reach a valuation of over $1 trillion+ and ultimately higher in the coming year will depend on the AI/FSD story materializing in monetization. path for years to come,” Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note published Monday.

As for the quarter itself, Tesla is expected to report second-quarter revenue of $24.59 billion according to the Bloomberg consensus, higher than the $21.30 billion it reported in the first quarter, but a shade lower than the $24.93 Tesla reported a year ago. The Street expects Tesla to post adjusted earnings per share of $0.60, on adjusted net income of $2.15 billion and operating profit of $1.88 billion, according to Bloomberg.

While its first-quarter financial results were largely below expectations, it was Tesla’s revelation that it would accelerate the launch of more affordable vehicles, despite reports earlier this quarter that the company would scrap those plans, that sent shares up gave a lift in April of this year.

The debut and introduction of a cheaper electric car is what many analysts and industry observers believe will drive the next step in electric car sales – even Musk had said this before.

A new pillar of vehicle growth for Tesla would be welcome after sales failed to keep up with the skyrocketing pace Tesla was used to. In the second quarter, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles worldwide in the second quarter, which is higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 439,302 but down nearly 5% from a year ago. However, the second quarter delivery total was a significant improvement over the 386,810 vehicles delivered in the first quarter, a quarter in which many were deeply concerned about demand for Tesla vehicles and was in freefall.

“We believe the Tesla demand story has taken a positive turn after the difficult past six to nine months, with stronger-than-expected deliveries in the second quarter earlier this month marking a major ‘turning point’ in the Tesla demand story Tesla bull case for the future in the second half of 2025,” Ives said.

An area of ​​surprise at Tesla Second quarter production and delivery report announced that it deployed 9.4 GWh (gigawatt hours) of battery energy storage, the highest quarterly amount ever, and more than double the amount of battery storage the company deployed in the first quarter.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas called Tesla’s second-quarter energy deployment markup figure a “show steal,” noting that the 9.4 GWh deployed was double the company’s forecast.

“We believe investors will begin to pay more attention to Tesla Energy, which we value at $36 per Tesla share ($130 billion), because the company is uniquely positioned to benefit from investments in the U.S. electric grid, which are being accelerated by the AI ​​boom,” Jonas wrote in a press release. note to customers last week.

Morgan Stanley has a $310 price target for Tesla.

Expect Musk and Tesla executives to discuss the energy sector in more detail, with more color expected on future product plans — and perhaps Musk’s thoughts on the presidential election — after the bell on Tuesday.

Pras Subramanian is a reporter for Yahoo Finance covering the auto industry. You can follow him X and further Instagram.

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