Surrey County Council has admitted there are not enough public school places to accommodate children transferring from private schools, after the Government introduced a 20 per cent VAT levy on independent education.
Forecasts obtained through a Freedom of Information request show that there are expected to be no vacancies for students in Year 9, 10 or 11 for the September 2025 intake, and only limited places in younger year groups. The shortfall comes despite estimates suggesting around 2,400 children in Surrey will be forced to move from fee-paying schools as a result of the VAT charge, which comes into force next month.
Surrey’s predicament highlights the regional imbalance in how the tax change could affect school capacity. Although the government claims that there is sufficient space in the national public school system, it has not taken into account the uneven distribution of enrollment in private schools. In Surrey, almost one in five pupils attend independent institutions – significantly higher than the national average of 6 per cent.
A concerned father who requested anonymity spoke out The Telegraph: “No municipality is equipped for mass access to secondary schools without capacity planning. Nearly 20 per cent of students in Surrey attend independent schools and the state system is full.”
Local authorities are legally obliged to provide a school place for every child in their area, but if nearby state schools have no available places, children may be allocated to distant schools, with councils potentially footing the bill for free transport or even taxis.
The government predicts that the new VAT levy will force around 35,000 students – 6 percent of those in private schools – across the country into the state sector. However, this one-size-fits-all calculation belies significant local differences. Surrey, with more than 40,000 privately educated pupils, is facing a disproportionate increase in demand for public school places.
Surrey County Council cabinet member Clare Curran acknowledged the challenge but insisted the council would monitor the situation and consider expanding certain public schools if necessary. She also noted that some schools have not filled all the places they could theoretically offer.
Meanwhile, a parliamentary petition calling on the government to reverse the VAT decision on private schools reached more than 100,000 signatures within a week, reflecting widespread concern about the policy’s unintended consequences.
A government spokesperson defended the policy, saying: “Ending tax breaks for private schools will raise £1.8 billion per year between 2029 and 2030 to help fund public services. Local authorities are responsible for securing sufficient school places, and we are confident that the public sector can cope with any additional pupils.”
However, families and educators worry that the sudden influx of private school students into an already strained system could intensify competition for places, push children to travel further for education, and impose high costs on municipalities can impose.