Follow our Olympic Games coverage in the run-up to the Paris Games.
For years, the sound of “The Star-Spangled Banner” was ubiquitous at all Olympic swimming venues.
From the 1992 Games in Barcelona through the pandemic-postponed 2021 Games in Tokyo, the U.S. swimming team won more gold medals than any of its peers. The national anthem was played over and over as the Americans received their gold medals on the podium. The last time Team USA did not win the most gold at a single Olympic Games was in 1988, when it finished second to East Germany. None of the swimmers on the current roster were alive at the time.
American swimmers have won the overall medal count and the gold medal so many times over the years that it’s almost taken for granted. Of course it helps that Michael Phelps single-handedly won 23 times across four Olympic Games, but it wasn’t just him. The Americans were often the best in the world in their best events, and they also often cleared in relays.
Now that dominance is far from certain. Heading into the Paris Games, the Australians will be favored to win the most gold medals in the group. The Aussies topped the Americans at the world championships in Fukuoka, Japan, a year ago, winning 13 gold medals to the Americans’ seven. Although Team USA won the overall number of medals (38 to 25), the hue of the match was less golden than usual.
Paris could be the same. It is a possibility that Americans do not shy away from and are determined to avoid.
“Historically, of any country in the world, the U.S. has done the best job of being better and performing at a higher level,” said U.S. head women’s coach Todd DeSorbo. “Certainly there are a number of events for both genders where we have a significant amount of ground to make up, but I have confidence in the motivation, enthusiasm and commitment of everyone – men and women – in the team who are willing to do that and do some very special things.”
Count Australian star Cate Campbell among those hoping for the opposite. She enjoyed what she heard at Worlds – or rather, what she didn’t hear.
“It’s one thing to come out on top for Australia, but it’s so much more fun to beat America,” Campbell said told Australia’s Channel 9 last August. “There were a few nights, especially the first night of the competition, where we didn’t have to hear ‘The Star-Spangled Banner’ blaring across the stadium, and I can’t tell you how happy that made me.
“If I (ever) hear that song again, it will be too soon.”
It was the first time since 2001 that the US did not take home the most gold medals at a world championship. Of the nine swimmers to win multiple individual gold medals, Katie Ledecky was the only American swimmer to do so. “The world is getting better,” Bob Bowman, the U.S. men’s head coach at Worlds, told reporters in Japan. During that competition alone, the Aussies set five world records. Neither seven-time Olympic gold medalist Caeleb Dressel nor two-time gold medalist Simone Manuel competed in Japan, and both will swim in Paris.
Katie Ledecky is the favorite for the gold medal in the 800 and 1,500 meter freestyle in Paris, but otherwise most races are too competitive to predict. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Campbell failed to qualify for Paris, but her comments have resonated loudly – including one that called the Americans “sore losers” for celebrating the most medals while the Aussies almost doubled their gold tally. It struck a chord with Phelps, who served as a commentator for NBC during the U.S. trials last month. He said that if a competitor spoke that way about him, he would “make them eat every word they just said about me” and hoped the Americans would use the video as motivation.
“Well, the good news is that the Olympics are happening soon and we’ll be able to see what the results are,” Phelps said.
For the first time in a long time, it’s hard to know what to expect. Ledecky, a seven-time Olympic gold medalist, will be favored to win gold in the 800-meter and 1,500-meter freestyle. Beyond that, the races are too competitive to predict with confidence. And Ledecky’s rival, Australian Ariarne Titmus, will be the favorite to win the 400m freestyle, while compatriot Mollie O’Callaghan is the headliner for the 100m and 200m freestyle.
Dressel, the star sprinter of the Americans, will have the opportunity to defend his gold medals from Tokyo in the 50 meter freestyle and the 100 meter butterfly. He looked strong at trials, but he is still in the midst of a comeback to the sport after an eight-month break from swimming from mid-2022 to early 2023. (At trials he failed to qualify individually for the 100-meter freestyle in Paris (so he doesn’t get to defend his gold.) Bobby Finke is favored to win the 1,500-meter freestyle, and Ryan Murphy is expected to compete in both backstroke events But overall, the three not obvious locks to repeat their success in Tokyo.
Caeleb Dressel returns as the face of the U.S. men’s team, with a chance to defend his gold medals in the 50-meter freestyle and 100-meter butterfly. (Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
Gretchen Walsh, Regan Smith and Kate Douglass will captain the women’s team alongside Ledecky, but the trio brings far less Olympic experience than she does. Walsh (100 fly) and Smith (100 back) have set world records in competition and will compete in Paris in their respective events, but these will be Walsh’s first Games, and Smith took home two silver medals (200 fly, medley relay) and one bronze (100 back) in Tokyo. Those events are also loaded. Australian Kaylee McKeown will be tough to beat in both backstroke events, and Canadians Maggie Mac Neil and Summer McIntosh will be top contenders in the 100 meters, as will China’s Zhang Yufei.
Douglass took bronze in the 200m individual medley in Tokyo, although she will swim a more extensive program after qualifying to swim individually in the 200m fly and 200 IM at trials. (She also qualified in the 100 freestyle, but later dropped that.) Although she has set several championship records at trials, she faces a tough road ahead with McIntosh, the Canadian phenom, and McKeown in the 200 IM (and her teammate Alex Walsh, too).
Of Team USA’s biggest names, many will likely win a medal at the Games, even if it might not be gold. Two-time gold medalist breaststroker Lilly King, versatile distance swimmer Katie Grimes and male breaststrokers Nic Fink and Matt Fallon were all able to medal. This also applies to Carson Foster, although he is unlikely to take gold in either IM race due to the heavily favored Frenchman Léon Marchand.
Relays will also be extremely competitive. Team USA will be favored in the men’s 4×100-meter freestyle relay and the women’s medley, but the American women will lag behind the Aussies in both freestyle relays, and the men will face stiff competition from China in the medley for men and Great Britain. in the 4 x 200 meter freestyle relay. The British took home gold for the first time in that relay in Tokyo. It was the first time the US (men or women) failed to medal in an Olympic relay.
But what’s perhaps most striking is that the complexion of the team is quite different from what it was just two Games ago, with Phelps and Ryan Lochte headlining in Rio de Janeiro alongside Ledecky in top form and a schedule that is developing extended from the 200 free through the 800 free. Even with Ledecky and Dressel heading to Paris, this roster doesn’t have the same star power that American swimming typically has, especially on the men’s side. Dressel will swim multiple events, but he has long been an enigma and not someone who wants the world to know everything about himself. Phelps and Lochte were endlessly fascinating figures, and during the Games’ heyday they were on TV almost every day due to the scale of their events.
Still, USA Swimming President and CEO Tim Hinchey III has said the organization’s goal is to win total medals and gold medals. But is that feasible? The Americans will find out soon enough.
“I thought before the trials we were in a good place relative to the rest of the world, and coming out of the trials I think we were in an even better place,” DeSorbo said. “We’re just ready to go to camp (in Croatia), go to Paris and let the Games start.”
GO DEEPER
Takeaways from the US Olympic Swimming Trials: Caeleb Dressel is back, Katie Ledecky is still here
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; photos of Katie Ledecky and Caeleb Dressel: Tom Pennington and Al Bello / Getty Images)