The dictator’s incentives and considerations

A story in the Wall Street Journal illustrates some of the dictator’s incentives and considerations. It shows that being a dictator is not easy, that one’s country cannot be innovative and rich, and that it is not fun to live there, even for someone who would like to serve the regime (Ann M .Simmons, “Spy Mania sows fear among Russian scientists”, October 2).

The illustration focuses on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. A dictator needs a powerful army, especially if he plans to invade foreign countries. A powerful military has always needed the most modern technology, which is now based on advanced science. Consider the chilling 2018 video in which Putin demonstrated his new hypersonic missiles with an animation of a rocket zooming around Earth to deliver a nuclear bomb to what appeared to be Florida. Hypersonic missiles, which travel at more than five times the speed of sound – Putin even said twenty times, which is even more impressive if you don’t know that the cost of lying for a dictator is low. Hypersonic missiles have been used in Ukraine ever since. They do not appear to be available to US forces yet. Their development requires advanced physics in the field of high-speed aerodynamics or hypersonics. Early in Putin’s rule, his regime funded research in this field and encouraged its scientists to participate in related scientific conferences in the Western world.

The dictatorial regime now claims that its scientific advances may have been partly leaked during these international conferences, although this is probably part of the two signals it wants to convey: first, to external enemies, actual and potential, that the Russian government has new missiles more effective than any other in the world; secondly, to its scientists. academics and apparatchiks, that any loss of loyalty will be severely punished.

Because individuals are cheap and there is no rule of law, an easy way for the dictator to achieve these goals is to charge with treason the very scientists and academics who did the tyrant’s bidding. Since 2018 and especially since the invasion of Ukraine, a number of scientists involved in hypersonic research, even if only at a theoretical level, have been arrested. Two photos at the WJ the story features two of the imprisoned old men: physicist Anatoly Maslov, now 78 and recently sentenced to 14 years in prison, watches with incomprehension and fear as a Russian praetorian manipulates his handcuffs; physicist Victor Kudryavstev looks despondent behind bars during a ‘court hearing’ in 2019. Other documented cases are cited by the WJ. Treason trials are held in secret and their consequences are not pleasant.

The Wall Street Journal also reports another reason why a dictator may arrest innocent individuals:

The suspicion among some observers is that Russian security services are carrying out these arrests in part “to convince themselves and Putin that Russia has made real progress in science and that spies from around the world are trying to steal it.” [Russian lawyer] said Smirnov.

Within the deep state (the Real deep state) of a dictatorial regime, information is unreliable and disinformation is an essential part of the game.

Note another consequence of these persecutions: Russian scientists now fear and have a strong incentive to avoid meaningful research in areas somehow related to military affairs. It is less likely that new scientific and technological developments will help Putin or his successor strengthen their military power and attack foreign countries, which would of course be a good thing. Yet future Russian dictators, such as Stalin or Kim Yong Un, could continue to rule over poor and despondent subjects.

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