The inflation of the US to remain sticky when the rate risk looms

(Bloomberg) – American consumer prices have probably risen in February at a pace that illustrates the progress of inflation for inflation for Federal Reserve officials. They can be satisfied to stay on the sidelines to assess a policy world of the Trump administration.

Most of them read from Bloomberg

Bureau of Labor Statistics figures On Wednesday, it is expected that the consumer price index minus food and energy has risen 0.3%based on the median estimate of economists investigated by Bloomberg. While the profit of 0.4% in January in January increases less than the increase in the increase in annual price growth.

The so -called Core CPI probably rose 3.2% compared to February last year. The data will inform the Fed’s preferred price meter, which is only due in the policy meeting of 18-19 March. Renter-Setters-Nu In a Black-out period prior to that meeting, an inflation goal of 2%.

The last snapshot of price pressure follows a job report in February that the growth of steady wage lists demonstrated tempered by hints of underlying cracks on the labor market. The broader economy also shows signs of softening, as a result of weaker consumer expenditure, sentiment and housing construction at the start of the year.

President Donald Trump told Fox News’ Sunday morning futures that the economy is confronted with ‘a period of transition’, which curbs concern about the risks of a delay in the US, because his early focus on trade and federal job reductions causes the unrest on the market.

Wednesday is also the day that 25% rates for steel and aluminum imports come into effect, with the American trade secretary Howard Lutnick signaling on Sunday that he does not expect a postponement of the levies.

On Thursday, data is expected to show similar persistent costs pressure at the wholesale level of the economy. The producer Price Index, excluding food and fuel, is expected to have increased by 3.5% from a year ago in February.

What Bloomberg Economics says:

“Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed must see ‘real progress’ in inflation or some weakness of the labor market to adjust again. After the start of the start of the year that the price resets brought disinflation in January, policy makers will be looking for new progress in the CPI of February. We only expect a modest improvement as the remaining seasonal effects get stuck: we estimate both headline and core CPI inflation with 0.3%. “

-Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou & Chris G. Collins, economists. Click here for full analysis

On Friday, a report from the University of Michigan is expected to show a further decrease in consumer sentiment. Traders, as well as FED officials, will pay special attention to the statistics of the survey of the survey.

The Bank of Canada is generally expected to reduce the rates with another 25 basic points on Wednesday when Trump’s radical rate on Canadian goods will persist. Earlier, many economists had calculated on a break after recent data showed that the economy returned strongly in the fourth quarter.

It is a challenging moment for Governor Tiff Macklem, who successfully struggled the inflation lower and put the country on the right track for a soft landing – only to experience potential stagflation from a trade war that is collected by an ally.

Elsewhere, inflation releases from China to Russia, his growth data in the UK and an important speech from the President of the European Central Bank to the highlights.

Click here for what happened last week, and below is our wrap of what is coming in the global economy.

Asia

The week started with the Chinese inflation report, which for the first time in 13 months unveiled a drop below zero. Although reading was skewed by seasonal disturbances, it is also a reminder of persistent deflatory pressure in the economy.

On Monday, investors will concentrate on Japan’s labor costs after the nominal wages in December rose at the fastest pace in almost three decades. Japan will also release on the day of the current account on the day in the midst of more and more uncertain prospects for global investment flow and trade.

The current account surplus of the country reached a record high in 2024, with the weakness of the yen blowing up the value of the overseas investment returns. A renewed trade war between the US and China, the two largest trading partners in Japan, is heavily on the prospects.

Also on Monday it is expected that the state bank of Pakistan will lower rates to 11.5% to support growth after inflation has decreased to the lowest in seven years.

On Tuesday, Japan will publish the final gross domestic product tram at the fourth quarter. A strong report can free the way for further tightening of monetary policy.

Australia brings a private survey for companies that will probably demonstrate the impact on the sentiment of the first reduction in the country in four years. Australia and Indonesia also report data on consumer confidence.

On Wednesday, the unemployment rate of South Korea will be closely viewed after a steeper-Dan expected decrease in January.

The growth of India’s consumer prize was probably cooled in February, which could stimulate bets for further relaxation of monetary policy. Japan releases economic and business conditions of the fourth quarter, as well as producer prices, while New Zealand has card expenditure data. Malaysia and India report industrial output.

On Friday, trade data from South Korea will see the food prices of new Zeeland.

During the week, China also publishes credit data and foreign direct investment figures that will be concluded after the country has registered the weakest start for incoming investments in four years in January.

Europe, Midden -Ooste, Africa

A crowded week of policy maker performances is in store for the eurozone after the ECB decision on Thursday to lower the rates and to prevent the next step from giving a clear signal.

Civil servants on the schedule are President Christine Lagarde, who give an important speech for an important conference in Frankfurt on the monetary policy of the Euro zone. Chief Economist Philip Lane and governors from the four largest economies in the region are also in the calendar.

Under data in the region, the industrial production of Euro-Zone on Thursday will give a signal about growth at the start of the year.

Prior to those figures, figures from Germany will reveal how the morbid production companies of the country did before Friedrich Merz won the elections of 23 February. He is working on a tax package that can prove to be an enormous support for the crippled industrial backbone of the country.

Merz’s plan also includes almost unlimited defense spending, an idea that also gets a grip elsewhere in Europe. The polls published during the weekend show that the policy of the Trump administration is shifting to Europe and Ukraine, stimulates support for increased military editions in France and the UK.

In Great -Britain, GDP data for January, which owed on Friday, is expected to show a third monthly increase, albeit much slower than the sprint that was seen at the end of last year.

In the meantime, a senior cabinet minister on Sunday said that the UK will lower the number of civil servants and use artificial intelligence to stimulate efficiency in the government.

Sweden will release its monthly GDP indicator on Monday and Riksbank -officials will testify to legislators the next day.

Norway and Denmark will publish the inflation numbers during the week, just like Will Poland. The Polish central bank will probably continue to borrow the costs stable during a decision on Wednesday. The National Bank of Serbia can now extend its break in monetary relaxation by a sixth month.

To the south, to the south, the inflation of Egypt is expected to show a sharp decrease in February of 24% a month earlier, so that the road is cleared for different interest rate letings this year.

The Minister of Finance of Ghana, Cassiel ATO Forson, will present the first budget of the Mahama government on Tuesday and sketch plans to breathe new life into the sick economy. He can also provide details about international monetary fund discussions to change the conditions of a program of $ 3 billion that will end next year.

In South Africa, Minister of Finance Henoch Godongwana will present his own budget in Cape Town on Wednesday, a month after postponing plans, due to a disagreement about a coalition about a proposal to levy taxes. Investors will look forward to how far he stays with tax consolidation while he has few options to increase income and reduce the expenditure.

Russia will publish inflation figures on Wednesday before February, just over a week before the next rate decision. Bloomberg Economics sees the annual price growth reaching 10% before the rest of the year is lower.

In Israel, in the meantime, inflation is expected to have reduced somewhat to 3.7% of 3.8% a month earlier. That report is due on Friday.

Latin -America

Many viewed central bank surveys from economists are from the tap in Argentina, where the inflation expectations are increasing, and in Brazil, where they are tuned after a long -term run.

The Brazil inflation report will probably show a leap of around 60 basic points in the year on an annual basis to more than 5%, the highest since September 2023.

Brazil also reports industrial production, retail, budget and credit data in the coming week.

While a stricter financial circumstances-the central bank of Brazil has tipped a third consecutive 100 basic rate increase during the March 19 March meeting. Inflation and expectations are still being set for heel, retail sales and industry, 2024 in defense.

In Peru, the central bank is probably fairly close to drawing a line under its post-Pandemic relaxation cycle.

Inflation in February delayed up to 1.48%, below the 2%center of the 1%-3%target range of the central bank, although policy makers led by President Julio Velarde can still opt for 4.75%.

Industrial production, wage data, consumer confidence and sale of in the same store are in the tap in Mexico.

The national inflation of Argentina delayed, but certainly during the 10th month, possibly under 70% sinking – a decrease of 289.4% in April. The monthly lecture can be cool from the 2.2% print and local analysts of January see further disinflation ahead: they predict 23.2% for the end of 2025 and 9.4% by 2027.

-With the help of Greg Sullivan, Laura Dhillon Kane, Mark Evans, Monique Vanek, Piotr Skolimowski, Robert Jameson, Swati Pandey and Beril Akman.

(Updates with Trump remarks in the fifth paragraph)

Most read from Bloomberg Businessweek

© 2025 Bloomberg LP