The mathematical model aims to reduce the number of drunk driving deaths among teens

Drunk driving claims 37 lives every day in the US, with teen and young adult drivers disproportionately involved. Niyousha Hosseinichimeh of the College of Engineering collaborated with researchers from across the US to create a simulation model – the first of its kind in the field of drunk driving prevention in adolescents – that examines how numerous public health interventions impact fatalities.

Using the simulation model, the team tested individual intervention factors, such as increasing alternative transportation through both public and shared services, implementing new restrictive laws in the US, and increasing law enforcement presence. The model identified that the best way to reduce alcohol-related crashes among teens and young adults is not through a single measure, but through a combined three-tenant intervention strategy:

• Introducing a new restrictive law in 50 states, such as lowering legal limits for blood alcohol content (BAC) while driving
• Provide more alternative transport
• Increased enforcement, such as increased police presence or checkpoints on roads

The team’s findings were recently published in the magazine of Social sciences and medicine and underlines the importance of Hosseinichimeh’s unique mathematical modeling, which allows researchers to test multiple interventions and evaluate results in real time to better address the complex public health and social problem.

Why it matters

Drink-driving is influenced by many interconnected factors and long delays between actions and outcomes, complicating policymaking and increasing the risk of unintended consequences. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for developing effective interventions.

“The system is very complex and no single discipline can provide an effective solution to reduce bad driving behavior,” said Hosseinichimeh. “We aim to give policymakers a better understanding of the potential impact of their decisions.”

Hosseinichimeh, an assistant professor in the Grado Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, is working with Federico Vaca, a physician at the University of California, Irvine. Using funding from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), Hosseinichimeh, Vaca and a team of researchers from various disciplines aim to understand why teens drink and drive.

In their previous research published in 2022they mapped out how factors such as peer influence, parental supervision and alcohol advertising are related. They felt that prevention needed a multifactorial approach, so Hosseinichimeh set out to build a mathematical model. Much research has been done into the prevention of drunk driving, but the use of modeling and system technology offers new perspectives.

“While there has been extensive research into drinking and driving, the use of modeling and systems thinking provides a robust approach to understanding the complex and often overlooked factors that influence this problem and can lead to negative outcomes,” said Vaca .

Key insights

• Innovative modeling: The team developed a system dynamics simulation model using group modeling sessions with input from various health and safety experts.
• Prior research: Previous research from this study mapped complex causal outcomes and identified important feedback mechanisms that influence alcohol-impaired driving behavior among adolescents and young adults. This mapping highlighted the systemic complexity that contributes to the persistence of the problem, and researchers realized that a more complex model was needed to test interventions and view results in real time.
• Data-driven analysis: The simulation model, calibrated with data such as FBI arrests, adolescent driver interviews, and national fatality information, accurately replicated historical trends for people ages 15 to 24.
• Effective interventions: The research found that the solution with the most impact was three-fold: implement new restrictive laws, increase police presence and provide more alternative transportation.
• Future directions: Despite the success of combined interventions, the number of deaths is stagnating over time, highlighting the need for new strategies to ensure a sustainable decline in alcohol-related deaths. The research team has submitted a new proposal to NIH aimed at lowering BAC levels for selected individuals. Future projects will refine the models and test new interventions aimed at providing a comprehensive solution to teen drunk driving.

it comes down to

The highest percentage of drivers with an alcohol disorder in fatal crashes was the 21 to 24 age group, accounting for 27 percent of all fatal crashes in 2021. By integrating diverse knowledge and expertise, Hosseinichimeh and her team are pioneering a systems engineering approach to address the complex problem of drunk driving among teens.

Her mathematical model allows researchers to easily quantify a complex problem and understand potential outcomes related to policy decisions. The combination of work not only underlines the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, but also provides actionable insights for policymakers who strive to make roads, and young drivers, safer.