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Famed wrestler Sting, when describing his character change in 1996 from an obvious babyface to a darker, enigmatic character, offered the perfect axiom about predicting the future. The Stinger noted, “The only thing that’s certain about Sting is that nothing is certain.”
This would be the same for sports media. There are some trends that seem obvious (greater investment in women’s sports media; consolidation and layoffs in traditional media; Netflix becoming a bigger sports player; more media leaning on sports betting revenue), but who knows? Still, we bring you some guesses for 2025.
1. Tom Brady will retire from broadcasting before the start of the 2025 NFL season
I’ve said before that I’d pay a lot of money for Brady not to finish out his 10-year, $375 million contract with Fox, given all of his various business interests outside of broadcasting, including ownership. That remains true. The safer prediction would be that Brady leaves his Fox deal after three or four years. But I daresay Brady becomes more deeply involved with the Las Vegas Raiders this offseason and decides to go all in with NFL ownership and his production company at the start of the next NFL season.
2. WNBA viewership will increase by 2025
This is not a time for women’s sports; It’s been a movement for a while. Game 5 of the WNBA Finals – a 67-62 overtime thriller won by the New York Liberty – averaged 2.15 million viewers, the most-watched WNBA Finals game in 25 years. The finals attracted an average of 1.6 million viewers, an increase of 115 percent compared to last season. It capped off a fantastic viewing year for the league – and this is where we definitely mention that the catalyst for the ratings explosion was interest in Caitlin Clark. In total, there were 32 WNBA television windows among its media partners with more than 1 million viewers during the 2024 season, including the WNBA Draft. This shattered the previous record of 15.
Starting with the 2026 season, you’ll see new partners NBC and Amazon Prime Video as part of a long-term TV rights deal, and you can expect them to invest some serious marketing dollars. Under the new agreements, Disney, NBC and Amazon will distribute more than 125 regular season and playoff games nationally each season, including a minimum of 25 regular season games on Disney platforms, 50 regular season games on NBCUniversal platforms and 30 regular season games on NBCUniversal platforms and 30 regular season games on Disney platforms. season matches on Amazon Prime Video. The league is also getting a boost from a new franchise (Golden State Valkyries) and more offseason exposure for star players thanks to the new 3-on-3 women’s basketball league, Unrivaled, launching in January 2025.
Clark’s star will continue to rise, and if you think bad faith actors knocking her over culture war points will have an impact on viewership, I’d point you to those who predicted that NFL viewership was gone forever. It’s an up arrow for the WNBA.
3. ESPN Flagship will be an instant hit
ESPN’s direct-to-consumer streaming service, codenamed “Flagship,” will give consumers access to the full suite of ESPN networks without a traditional pay-TV subscription. That includes all of ESPN+’s programming and what currently airs on linear ESPN. There will also be integration with ESPN Fantasy and ESPN Bet. Reports indicate a starting price between $25 and $30 per month, and I think the price will initially attract consumers. I think the number of early subscribers will exceed expectations, especially given the recent big increases on YouTube TV.
Research firm MoffettNathanson, which provides media, communications and technology trends to institutional investors, released a note this month predicting that “after an initial investment of $75 million in FY 2025 to get the service up and running (anticipating (a launch at the end of FY 2025, in time for the start of the NFL season), we initially anticipate one million paying subscribers in FY 2026, which will subscription revenue of just over $200 million and advertising revenue of $20 million.” I predict this number will be higher by FY 2026.
4. Kevin Harlan will call NBA games for Amazon Prime Video
Ian Eagle has signed a deal as one of Amazon’s top broadcasters, and I predict Harlan will join him. A 1-2 game-calling combo with Eagle and Harlan gives the streamer tremendous instant credibility in the live game space.
5. ESPN will opt out of its current MLB contract after the 2025 season
This is probably as close as you can get to a layup prediction. MoffettNathanson said opting out could save Disney/ESPN as much as $600 million in costs, though most expect a restructured contract. Will ESPN get local games for Flagship?
6. UFC is distributed between ESPN and Netflix
No inside information from me – just a guess that UFC eventually bounces off WWE and ends up at both Disney and Netflix for its product. And so Netflix is starting to become big in the field of sports rights.
The UFC’s Dana White will be looking for – and according to Richard Deitsch’s prediction – getting big media deals in 2025. (Steve Marcus/Getty Images)
7. ESPN finally commits to a daily women’s basketball studio show during the WNBA season
With Clark you have an overwhelming audience, a litany of interesting All-Stars from A’ja Wilson to Kelsey Plum and a hunger for storylines both on and off the court. If ESPN wants to take credit for building women’s basketball in America, as it always has, then this isn’t even up for debate given how many opportunities it has. If this doesn’t exist next year, the network should be crushed for it.
8. The Pac-12 will bring in at least one name brand media company for its media rights
In November, the Pac-12 announced that Octagon will serve as the agency guiding the conference through the media rights landscape. That to me is a signal that someone with some weight is going to bite, and I’m assuming it will be WBD Sports, whose 2024 was determined by losing the rights to the NBA on TNT. Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Gonzaga, San Diego State and Utah State will join Oregon State and Washington State in the 2026-2027 season. The league needs one more football school to reach the threshold to remain recognized as a conference within the FBS division.
9. ESPN hires an active player or coach for the NBA Finals
It has been clear for some time that ESPN management does not want a two-person booth for NBA Finals coverage. It’s also clear that the network wants a notable name (e.g., Milwaukee Bucks coach Doc Rivers) to sell to the marketplace.
Who could that be? My colleague Andrew Marchand argued in this piece in June that ESPN should already be courting the likes of LeBron James or Steph Curry should they ever consider broadcasting. That’s an interesting long-term play. What I think is very likely for 2025 is that someone like Chris Paul will be a guest game analyst for the finals. Monty Williams, former NBA coach, would also be an interesting one-off.
(Top photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)