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A popular strategy for determining betting strategy is to rely on one particular factor, such as home field advantage, as a foundation upon which to build. Home field advantage in sports is something that is talked about a lot.
A lot of research has been done into the phenomenon whereby a team’s performance is usually better at home than on the road.
This is something that is also reflected in the sports betting you see at sportsbooks like those reviewed by Legal beta service that analyzes bookmakers and their offers. Home favorites are popular choices for punters, and even for a weak team, which may be a 3/1 underdog against a title contender away from home, the odds can be adjusted to something like 11/4 or 13/5 if they are at home. against the same strong opponent.
But is home advantage equally important in all sports? Here we look at the top three sports that have historically produced thinner margins for home teams.
Why do teams perform better at home?
There are some fascinating facts about why teams are expected to play better at home. One is simply being in a familiar environment and because it is their home, there is a fortress mentality as they will play that little bit harder to defend that precious home turf.
Not having to travel halfway across the country and stay in an unfamiliar environment can also have a positive effect, in addition to benefiting from the majority support of the surrounding stands. The influence of the crowd can give teams a second wind when they need it, and can potentially be hostile enough to stop a referee from making a certain decision against their team.
But there are sports where the home advantage is diluted compared to others.
Baseball
The MLB has one of the lowest home win rates in sports. In 2019, the Washington Nationals went 0-3 at home in the World Series, which sounds like they should have been in big trouble. Without a home form they should have been out of the running.
But remarkably, they still won the championship series 4-3 as their opponent, the Houston Aeros, lost all four of their home games. Never before have all games in the World Series been won by the away team. However, this feat took a very long time to happen.
During the 2023 MLB Playoffs, there were more away wins than home wins during the playoffs. That has been the trend in the world’s largest baseball league for the past five years. So when it comes to gambling, this is an area to keep an eye on where the home advantage is not necessarily as strong as it is made out to be. Japan’s Nippon League tends to run at a slightly lower home success rate than even the MLB.
Ice hockey
Located on the North American scene, the National Hockey League is a top professional league where things are fairly evenly spread across the boards. Since 2008, regular season results in the world’s premier ice hockey league have produced a 52% to 58% success rate for teams on home ice.
But once things move into the playoffs, the numbers become very different. Then you’re looking at a success rate of between 45% and 69% of home advantage in the Playoff and the lower end of that is extremely low, potentially opening up betting opportunities.
Rugby and American football
The average home win percentage in international rugby is around 55-58%, which is about the same as in the NFL. That puts these sports among the lower home success rates, so they can also both be good to target for a betting advantage.
So targeting road wins during an NFL weekend for example, or during a major international rugby tournament such as the Rugby Championship or Six Nations, is statistically more likely to deliver a road win than a bet on European football.
See What’s current
Just to illustrate, popular leagues such as the Spanish La Liga, the English Premier League, the Italian Serie A and the American MLS football scene all typically have a home success rate of well over 60% for a season.
The best advice is to always stay up to date with current trends. It is important to understand that there may be shifts from season to season where home field advantage may count slightly more or less than normal. There will also likely be very strong outlier teams in both directions, which is why you always look at averages.