Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following the November 6-7, 2024, Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the William McCheney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, DC, on November 7, 2024.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images
Expectations for a December rate cut remained strong after the Federal Reserve cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point in November, but market prices point to the likelihood of a January ‘skip’.
On Thursday afternoon, the U.S. central bank cut the federal funds rate, which determines what banks charge each other for overnight lending, to a target range of 4.5% to 4.75%.
Before the Fed announced its decision at 2 p.m. ET, market prices pointed to a 67% chance of another quarter-point cut in December and a 33% chance of a pause that month, the U.S. central bank said. CME FedWatch tool.
The probability of a quarter-point rate cut in December rose to more than 70% after the meeting, while the probability of a pause fell to almost 29%. Future interest rate opportunities found in the CME FedWatch Tool are derived from trading 30-day Fed Fund futures contracts.
Meanwhile, the probability that the Federal Reserve would skip a rate cut in January was about 71%. This was slightly higher than the 67% before the release of the Fed’s November decision on Thursday afternoon.
— CNBC’s Jeff Cox contributed to this report.