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We’re six games into UEFA Champions League action as there are still two rounds to go in the league stage before the knockout stages. The field is still largely open, although teams have already started to book their places for the final rounds, with no team yet absolutely 100% certain of a place in the round of 16. Leaders Liverpool are most likely to be knocked out -out spot already secured, but they have yet to secure more than entry into the play-offs despite being ahead of everyone else. Barcelona is also in pursuit, but at the moment there are more eliminated teams than qualified teams.
We take a look at the state of play as we wait for the return of Champions League action for the final two rounds in January.
UCL top eight
Liverpool are already guaranteed a place in the top 24, which is at least a place in the play-offs, but Arne Slot’s Premier League and Champions League leaders should now become the first team to make their presence felt in the round of 16 confirmed in early 2025. The Reds can confirm that status with one more point from games against Lille OSC and PSV Eindhoven and it is difficult to see the Merseysiders throwing things away in the last two games. They are more likely to end the league phase with eight wins from eight games, given their impressive 100% win record so far.
UCL play-offs (top 24)
- Confirmed: Liverpool and Barcelona.
Barcelona are just below Liverpool with five wins from six who lost their opening game, and the Catalan giants are currently the most likely candidates to pip the Reds to top spot or immediately follow them into the round of 16. For now, both have at least a guaranteed knockout stage, although Arne Slot’s side are likely to go straight to the round of 16 given their three-point lead over Barcelona. Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter, Stade Brestois 29 and Lille OSC also make up the top eight with two games remaining, although none of these teams are yet in a position to officially reach the knockouts despite probably looks like most of them – if not all of them. It would take a major turnaround in results to change that, but Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Milan are breathing down their necks on twelve points, while Atalanta and Juventus are on eleven.
Halfway home
Neither advanced nor eliminated, a handful of sides are as close to the top eight as the elimination places, with Benfica, Monaco, Sporting, Feyenoord and Club Brugge all on 10 points, meaning their next win or loss could have huge consequences. Real Madrid and Celtic may be creeping into that conversation as they are just one point away from the same tally, but the other big names among the Scottish giants have big work to do.
In danger
This now includes Manchester City, PSV Eindhoven, Dinamo Zagreb, Paris Saint-Germain and VfB Stuttgart, who are all hanging around the border with two games to go. Fascinatingly, the French giants face both the Premier League and Bundesliga in their final two matches, which likely means the trump cards mean this year’s big name stumbles early on. Both PSG and City can still avoid this, but both will be desperately waiting for the final day when they can likely secure their knockout places with a win in the penultimate round when they meet at the Parc des Princes.
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This is unlikely to work
The teams who can still mathematically make the knockouts, but need at least four points from their two remaining games, include Shakhtar Donetsk, Sparta Praha, Sturm Graz, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Red Bull Salzburg and Bologna. Many of these parties are simply waiting to finally be confirmed as ineligible, despite some having made an encouraging start. However, at least for now, it is not 100% guaranteed that they will not reach the knockout stages and that is further proof of the value that comes with adopting this new stage of competition.
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- Confirmed: RB Leipzig, Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava.
Red Bull’s flagship Leipzig were the first to fall this edition, which came as a surprise as Aston Villa confirmed their exit with a home loss in the sixth round. Salzburg is expected to follow soon, although Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava were the next two after the Germans. All three eliminated sides are on zero points, while Bologna are the next most likely to drop out as they are on two points, meaning they can only get eight points at the end of the league stage, which is still two less than the estimated 10 points. point barrier to reach the knockouts. While it is mathematically correct at the moment, it is unlikely to remain the case for the Italians who could be argued not to be in control of their own destiny even if they were to win both of their remaining matches.