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By some statistics, things haven’t changed much in Concacaf lately. The US Men’s National Team and Mexico have claimed all the continent’s trophies since 2002, while El Tri sits two places ahead of the USMNT in the FIFA rankings, while their next closest regional foe is 17 places away. Despite these measures of success, however, things have not been easy for the US and Mexico in 2024.
Concacaf’s historic heavyweights have encountered a number of problems in recent months, both in regional play and especially in this year’s biggest showcase: the Copa America, when every team crashed out of the group stage. Their performances challenge some preconceptions about the USMNT and Mexico individually and the region as a whole, especially as Canada pushes for top honors in North America.
It makes this month’s Concacaf Nations League quarter-finals a fascinating check-in for each of the 2026 World Cup co-hosts, all aiming to make a statement in two years’ time. There is an added layer of intrigue in the fact that each of the co-hosting national teams has made managerial changes in 2024, with the Nations League marking the first competitive matches since the USMNT and Mexico hired Mauricio Pochettino and Javier Aguirre respectively. The upcoming matches will provide a first look at the progress these two teams hope to make in time for 2026, while Canada will have the opportunity to demonstrate that their form under new head coach Jesse Marsch is no flash in the pan.
Here’s what’s at stake for each of the World Cup co-hosts now that the countdown to 2026 is officially underway.
USMNT tries new ideas
Each of the 2026 World Cup co-hosts enter the Nations League matches having played friendlies against each other in recent months, with the USMNT coming out arguably worse than the others. They coupled a surprise group stage exit from the Copa America with a 2-1 defeat to Canada in September and a 2-0 loss to Mexico in October, recording just two wins in their last nine games. The string of unimpressive performances recalibrated expectations for the USMNT in the process, with few denying their potential but many questioning their ability to deliver. It prompted US Soccer to hire Pochettino in September, who they hope will bring new ideas and turn around the team quickly, with less than two years to go until the World Cup.
While Pochettino promised entertaining, attacking football and an embrace of the country’s winning mentality, lasting change for the USMNT will not come overnight. The new head coach has relied on familiar faces and insisted he is slowly integrating his attacking ideas in his first months in charge, which is no surprise given the newness of his responsibilities. However, this month’s Nations League match against Jamaica could force his hand. A series of injuries and Timothy Weah’s suspension for the first leg mean new faces and new ideas will be on display in Kingston as early as Thursday.
One of those new approaches could be in defence, with Pochettino deliberately bringing only two natural full-backs with the idea that others could come in based on their experience at club level and tactical trends in the sport.
“I think today, in football in recent years, we see teams like Manchester City, Arsenal and Company. I think we can see that a central defender can play as a full-back,” he said at a press conference on Sunday . “Tim Ream, [in Charlotte FC’s MLS Cup Playoffs game against Orlando City]played as a fullback. For me he is a central defender, but he played as a left wing-back. He can play. Depends on the dynamics of the game… I think we can all agree that Yunus Musah can play fullback, maybe right back. Against Real Madrid [in last week’s UEFA Champions League match]he performed fantastically and they won the match [AC] Milan. I think he is also a player who can perform there, can play.”
Mexico goes for the tried and tested
The year got off to a rocky start for Mexico, who looked unconvincing as they lost to the US in the Concacaf Nations Final in March, followed by their own shock group stage elimination at the Copa America. Mexico’s long-standing ability to be a competitor in Concacaf felt like it was fading, with some arguing that El Tri’s player pool was not as strong as that of the USMNT. While that won’t be a short-term solution, Mexico has chosen to make a major change in the meantime. They have traded head coach Jaime Lozano for Aguirre, who is now in his third stint as Mexico manager.
Mexico is now undefeated in four games under Aguirre, including a 0-0 draw against Canada in September and the 2-0 win over the USMNT last month. The difference between October’s match against the USA and March’s was night and day. El Tri brought an intensity that was lacking last winter and easily looked the better team in a match that was evenly matched in several respects. With the teams essentially neck-and-neck in terms of possession, touches and passing, Mexico defeated the US 17-5, scoring two goals in the process.
El Tri had a similar game plan against Canada, although on that occasion he took seven fewer shots and couldn’t find the back of the net. While they remain imperfect, the matches mark a strong first performance for Aguirre’s Mexico, although they will need to show they can keep that progress going with this month’s quarter-final against Honduras.
Canada’s upward trajectory
Even though the USMNT and El Tri have been disappointing, the most game-changing development in North America this year might be Canada’s upward movement. The team has been knocking on the door for some time, finishing at the top of the continent’s World Cup qualifying table in 2022, but a fourth-place finish at the Copa America shows there is a lot of potential for this side.
While the USMNT and Mexico began their transition periods in the fall, Canada outmaneuvered them by hiring Marsch in the spring. The weeks-long drive to the Copa America proved to be no problem as he found ways to survive various tactical challenges since taking over. They were gritty at times during their Copa America run and more attacking-minded at other times, including in their opening day loss to Argentina, in which they collected ten shots and had a few meaningful looks on target.
Marsch’s Canada is comfortable without the ball, but finds a way to create advantages in more even games. Before Mexico did the same in October, Canada defeated the USMNT in September by ceding possession but outscoring opponents 17 to eight. The US, then led by interim head coach Mikey Varas, was particularly sloppy that day, but Canada was happy to take advantage of the opportunity to earn their first US victory since 1957.
The pressure remains on Canada to see if they can maintain this form, although they earned top seeding for the Nations League quarter-finals and therefore have a favorable draw against Suriname this month.