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We’ve seen college football teams bounce back in the College Football Playoff, losing their last regular season or conference title game and still earn a spot in the four-team field.
This happened to Alabama in 2017 after losing the Iron Bowl and to Ohio State after losing to Michigan in 2022. That was the same season that TCU of the Big 12 became the first team to lose its conference championship game (against Kansas State) and still get in. In all those cases, that loss was the team’s only loss.
Now with a twelve-team CFP, supporting the Playoff has a whole new meaning. I’m looking at you, Ohio State (10-2). So does Miami (10-2).
What we learned about the College Football Playoff over the last full weekend of the regular season is that we have a pretty good idea of who will be in the College Football Playoff heading into championship weekend.
GO DEEPER
2024 College Football Playoff Projections: What’s next for Ohio State after Michigan upset?
Playing for a bye
No. 2 Ohio State’s faceplant against Michigan opened the door for No. 4 Penn State to reach the Big Ten Championship Game against No. 1 Oregon. Side note: Congratulations to the Ducks (12-0) for being the only FBS team to go through 12 games unscathed.
The match-up has been set 🦁🦆
Early thoughts on who will win the B1G title game?#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/F5josIsL2T
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) November 30, 2024
The Nittany Lions (11-1) and Ducks appear to be safely in the bracket, with the winner getting a bye. The worst-case scenario for the Ducks is hosting a first-round game. Penn State could fall out of a hosting spot altogether depending on how other championship games go.
The SEC has a similar situation: No. 7 Georgia (10-2) versus No. 3 Texas (11-1), which clinched a spot after beating rival Texas A&M. We doubt the committee will punish Georgia for reaching the championship game, although it would be in the Bulldogs’ best interest not to get blown out by the Longhorns.
GEORGIA. TEXAS.
THE REMATCH FOR A TITLE. 🏆#SECCampionship pic.twitter.com/xpIiXZ65Rk
— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) December 1, 2024
After that big breakout against Georgia Tech on Friday night in eight OTs, Georgia doesn’t want to give the selection committee any reason to reconsider Alabama or Mississippi, both of which beat the Bulldogs.
The winner gets in, the loser goes home
A wild Big 12 race ended somewhat routine. All the favorites won this weekend, sending No. 18 Iowa State (10-2) and No. 16 Arizona State (10-2) into the conference title game. We’ll see what the penultimate rankings say on Tuesday, but the committee hasn’t been overly kind to the Big 12, meaning only the winner will make the field as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Solar Devils. Cyclones.
🏆
📍Arlington, Texas.
📅 12.7.24
📺ABC🎟️🔗: https://t.co/O7OY7wQRck pic.twitter.com/K5FENUTn1U
— Big 12 Conference (@Big12Conference) December 1, 2024
The same goes for the Mountain West, where No. 11 Boise State hosts No. 22 UNLV on Friday night. The American Athletic Conference will root for Army (10-1) if it beats Tulane in that title game, but the Cadets failed their Notre Dame test badly and played one of the weakest schedules in the country.
🏈 Highlights from UNLV’s 38-14 win over Nevada!#MWFB | #BEaREBEL | #MWPathToThePlayoff pic.twitter.com/gUUX1K6wBB
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) December 1, 2024
An interesting race has developed between the Mountain West and Big 12 for the No. 4 seed and bye.
Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos (11-1) have held that spot in the last two rankings, comfortably ahead of the top-ranked Big 12 team. To what extent the Big 12 can close the gap — if at all — will be something to watch on Tuesday.
The Broncos defeated Oregon State 34-18 on Friday. On Saturday, Iowa State defeated No. 24 Kansas State 29-21 and Arizona State defeated Arizona 49-7.
Since UNLV is also ranked — with two wins against Big 12 teams — it seems unlikely that the winner of the Big 12 title game will swing past Boise State if the Broncos win. And the Rebels will likely have a good case to make a big leap forward if they win on the Blue Turf.
Bid stealer
Clemson had a strange day.
The Tigers lost 17-14 to rival South Carolina, with Cade Klubnik throwing a cheeky interception in the waning moments when Clemson (9-3) was in position to tie the score with a short field goal.
South Carolina holds off Clemson for sixth straight win‼️ pic.twitter.com/UOTr9dGWAv
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 30, 2024
But the Tigers did get the help they needed to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game when Syracuse rallied from down 21-0 in the first half to beat No. 6 Miami 42-38.
“Hey, Dabo Swinney, congratulations. I’ve got you in, baby!’ That’s what Orange coach Fran Brown says.
The Tigers will face No. 9 SMU (11-1). The Mustangs will arrive on the field safely no matter what happens in Charlotte, NC. Win the conference and earn a bye. Simple.
Clemson can’t walk away with a loss, but should have no problem being one of the five highest-ranked conference champions if it wins the ACC. The question is whether that is good enough for a place in the top four and a bye.
But if Clemson joins SMU, another team that currently looks good for a big-time spot will be bumped.
Safe
Ohio State’s latest loss to Michigan was its worst yet during this four-game skid in The Game.
Still, the second-ranked Buckeyes (10-2) are in a group that appears safely in contention even if they don’t play a championship weekend.
No. 5 Notre Dame (11-1) finished the season with 10 straight wins. The Fighting Irish can’t earn a bye because they’re not in a conference, but should have no trouble getting the home first-round matchup they’ve been eyeing since the end of last season.
Whether the Irish are seeded No. 5, 6 or 7 will be determined by the conference title games.
No. No. 8 Tennessee (10-2) erased an early deficit to beat Vanderbilt 36-23 on Saturday, giving the Volunteers a fairly stress-free week of waiting to find out whether they would go on the road or host a first-round game.
As for the Buckeyes, being positioned to return to the Playoff seemed like no consolation for losing to Michigan again.
“Honestly, I’m not there right now,” Buckeyes coach Ryan Day said when asked about the reset for a potential playoff run. “I’m still trying to process everything that just happened, and I have a locker room full of guys who are just devastated.”
GO DEEPER
Meet 2024 Ohio State, the unluckiest Playoff team in college football history
A little safe
Like we said, if Clemson wins, someone’s going to get hit.
Who will that someone be?
What about Miami? The Hurricanes have already handed the Tigers their spot in the ACC title game. The Canes had some big breakouts early in the season, but finished the year losing two of four. On the plus side, losing one-score games against Georgia Tech (7-5) with Haynes King and against Syracuse (9-3) is nothing to be ashamed of.
The Canes don’t have many wins against top-ranked teams, but the resume looks better than expected, with Tech, Louisville (8-4), Duke (9-3) and Florida (7-5) all finishing well.
“This team has won 10 football games against some really good teams,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal told reporters after the loss to Syracuse.
What about Indiana?
It seems unlikely that this committee will dismiss an 11-1 team, with the only loss coming at Ohio State, but the fact remains that outside of the Buckeyes, the only team the Hoosiers played that was above .500 was Michigan (7-5). ended.
Hey, Ohio State couldn’t beat the Wolverines at home and Indiana could. So that’s something.
Both the Hoosiers and Hurricanes should become big SMU fans.
SEC on the bubble
The committee hasn’t shown much interest in giving these three-loss SEC teams the benefit of the doubt, but the company line is that the group starts each week with a blank sheet of paper, so we should be open to a big change. .
The top team is No. 15 South Carolina, which finished the season with six straight wins.
“If the committee’s job is to choose the best twelve teams, can you tell me?” South Carolina coach Shane Beamer said.
Ironically, South Carolina’s case will be even better if Clemson wins the ACC, but Clemson winning the ACC also clutters the list of major teams by adding SMU.
The other problem South Carolina has is losses to the two teams directly in front of it: No. 13 Alabama and No. 14 Mississippi.
“Well, I think everyone knows about our schedule, and I don’t know the exact stats, but I know we beat four Top-25 teams all year. And I don’t know how many people have done that,” Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer said.
It’s actually three since LSU folded. Still, wins against Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina are nice. Those losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt? Both finished 6-6.
Sure, SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey will have something to say about it, but his opinion doesn’t count.
(Photo of South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers running the ball against Clemson’s TJ Parker: Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)