Home Sports Which statistic is most important in college football? Keep an eye on the explosive margin of play

Which statistic is most important in college football? Keep an eye on the explosive margin of play

by trpliquidation
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Which statistic is most important in college football? Keep an eye on the explosive margin of play

They used to be known as great plays. Or maybe long plays. It is not clear when and why football people started calling them ‘explosive plays’ or simply ‘explosives’. It was probably around the time that football people started calling position groups “rooms.”

The football people also can’t quite agree on what defines an explosive play, because there is no official definition: some use 15-yard runs and 20-yard passes. Others use less.

“People tend to choose the one that is beneficial to them,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last year.

However, there is a growing consensus that one statistic is very important: explosive play marginas in who has more in a game is a big indicator of who wins the game. Maybe it was always that way, maybe it means more in this era of higher scoring and more passing, which means bend-but-don’t-break defenses prevail, and ground-and-pound offenses do not.

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Georgia’s survival at Kentucky is a good example: Kentucky outgained Georgia in yards, 284-262, and had a good running game in the second half. But in that decisive second half – using the definition of explosives as rushes of more than 12 yards and passes of more than 16 yards – Georgia had five explosive plays (three passes, two runs), Kentucky only one, because Georgia’s defense ground, but reinforced when necessary.


Georgia coach Kirby Smart, Carson Beck (15) survived against Kentucky on Saturday with a 13-12 victory. (Carter Skaggs/Imagn Images)

That’s just one example from this season, where the data, like previous seasons, continues to show that explosive margin of play is a key factor:

2024 (so far)

In SEC play – conference or non-conference – the team that wins the explosive margin of play has a record of 32-2.

The biggest exception is Arkansas, which was plus-15 in its overtime loss at Oklahoma State, with the Razorbacks blowing a huge lead and killing themselves on penalties (seven for 70 yards) and turnovers (minus two). The other was Vanderbilt (nine explosives) in its five-point loss to Georgia State (eight explosives).

When the explosive margin of play is equal or close, teams give themselves a chance. But the worse it gets, the harder it becomes. Here’s a breakdown by margin, via TruMedia:

  • +10 or better: 10-1
  • +5 to +9: 13-0
  • +1 to +4: 9-1
  • Even: 1-2
  • -1 to -4: 3-4
  • -5 to -9: 0-3
  • -10 or worse: 0-1

On a cumulative basis, the data are comparable. There are three SEC teams with losing records, and those three rank in the bottom four in terms of total explosive margin of play. The only SEC team with a negative differential and a winning record is LSU, which was minus-10 in its season-opening loss to USC, but plus-five in its win at South Carolina.

SEC explosive plays per game

Team Explosives Explosives from the opponent Differential

4:00 PM

2.67

13.33

6 p.m

6:00 am

12:00 noon

5 p.m

5.33

11.67

10.33

2.67

7.67

11.67

4.33

7.33

10.67

4:00 am

6.67

7.67

3:00 am

4.67

11am

7:00 am

4:00 am

8:00 am

5.33

2.67

8:00 am

6.67

1.33

6:00 am

5.67

0.33

7.67

7.33

0.33

5:00 am

5:00 am

0.00

9:00 am

9.67

-0.67

8.33

9.33

-1.00

7.67

9:00 am

-1.33

Source: TruMedia

History of the recent season

Between 2019 and 2023, SEC teams that played more explosively than their opponents had an overall record of 397-72. And the higher the margin in that game, the more likely they would win, according to TruMedia:

  • +10 or better: 52-2 (.963)
  • +5 to +9: 153-9 (.944)
  • +1 to +4: 193-61 (.760)
  • Even: 42-38 (.525)
  • -1 to -4: 62-145 (.300)
  • -5 to -9: 10-87 (.103)
  • -10 or worse: 2-16 (.111)

(For what it’s worth, four of the twelve team losses by a five-plus margin were during the 2020 COVID-19 season.)

On a cumulative basis, the five SEC champions – and six College Football Playoff participants, that is Georgia in 2021 – each averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents. The four SEC teams that won the league title during that time each averaged at least four more explosive plays than their opponents.

Does defense win championships? No, the explosive playing margin is.

The reason for the data

Three-and-outs are great, but not necessary and also much harder to come by than they used to be: according to TruMedia, the percentage of three-and-outs forced by SEC defenses is down, from 35.5 percent of drives in 2004 to From 31.5 percent in 2014 to 27.8 percent so far this year.

But defenses that force the offense to stay on the field longer, increasing the chance for mistakes, are giving themselves a better shot.

Georgia’s defense hasn’t given up a touchdown in the last four games, and in the season opener, Clemson gave up three or fewer plays on six of 11 possessions. But Saturday night, Kentucky had just one three-and-out among its 10 drives. The bigger problem was that the Wildcats couldn’t get into the red zone with all but one of their possessions.

On the other side of the ball, offenses that get a bigger share of the play reduce their chances of making mistakes. The time of possession has therefore become much less meaningful: Ole Miss (28 minutes, 55 seconds), Alabama (29:10) and Georgia (29:42) all average less possession than their opponents so far. Tennessee (30:48) and Texas (30:21) barely reach the finish line.

It’s an era of higher scores and coaches prefer points to long drives that yield only three points. Turnover margin still matters, as does field position and some other traditional factors. But the explosive margin of play is the one that can tell the story just as well.

(Top photos of Jaxson Dart, left, and Nico Iamaleava: Petre Thomas/Imagn Images and Lance King/Getty Images)

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